Covid19 OR Daily

• Does the above look like a daily reduction, let alone a sustained one? When was there ever a flattening?

• Oregon began a phased opening and isnt that going great.

Come on: The decision to open up is certainly not being based on data.

Lets look at the various criteria Oregon itself lays out:

• "Public Health Framework for Reopening Oregon", slide 3

  1. "Declining growth rate of active cases"

     • Nope.

• "The Three Health Signs We Must See to Reopen Oregon",

  1. "We must see fewer Oregonians getting sick from COVID-19."

     • Nope. Oh wait, their metric is to compare hospital visits with "flu or flu-like symptoms" across previous years. Dumb.

  2. Criteria to "redirect": "Evidence of more people getting sick with COVID-19 in Oregon"

     • "As measured by a 5% or greater increase in new cases over seven days."

       • Oregon opened, new cases shot-up ~1wk later, predictably

Now, how about the US overall? Yes, we are in an epidemic: See the exponential growth?

Have we flattened? Like Italy, France, Spain? Then why are we opening?

https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-MAP/0100B59S39E/index.html

So, what do I think we should do?

1. Shelter-in-place continues thru summer.

2. Shelter-in-place should be proportional to population density.

3. The 2020-2021 school year should be online.

4. 
   

References:

1. "The first wave of Covid-19 is not over – but how might a second look?", https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jun/05/the-first-wave-of-covid-19-is-not-over-but-how-may-a-second-look

2. "Epidemic Models", http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/dm/20/lectures/special/epidemics.html#(1)

3. "Don’t Believe the COVID-19 Models: That’s not what they’re for.", https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/

4. "Reuters Covid-19 Charts", https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-MAP/0100B59S39E/index.html

Studies:

1. "COVID-19: The CIDRAP Viewpoint", https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/default/files/public/downloads/cidrap-covid19-viewpoint-part1_0.pdf

2. "Reviewing the History of Pandemic Influenza: Understanding Patterns of Emergence and Transmission", https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0817/5/4/66

3. "The unseen and pervasive threat of COVID-19 throughout the US", https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.06.20053561v3

4. "",

5. "",

Research:

1. "Covid-19 Modelling Consortium", UT-Austin, https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/publications/

2. "",

3. "",

Oregon:

1. "Governor Kate Brown Introduces Framework for Reopening Oregon - April 14, 2020", https://www.oregon.gov/newsroom/Pages/NewsDetail.aspx?newsid=36373

2. "Reopening Oregon: A Public Health Framework for Restarting Public Life and Business - April 14, 2020", https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_NQIdniPI3DlE1A8WP-t8KJfAPkjbo-_/view

3. "Health and Safety Criteria for Reopening", https://govstatus.egov.com/OR-OHA-Reopening-Framework

4. "The Three Health Signs We Must See to Reopen Oregon", https://sharedsystems.dhsoha.state.or.us/DHSForms/Served/le2344.pdf

5. "",