Average annual precipitation near our forest plantings is around 105 cm, with an average annual temperature of 10 C (50.5 F). Annual temperature is expected to increase by 4.5 C in PA by the end of the century (6.1 C during summer). Precipitation in Pennsylvania is expected to increase by 5-12% over the next 100 years. This precipitation increase is expected to happen primarily in the fall, winter, and spring, with increasing droughts as temperatures also rise in summer. The result is that Pennsylvania is projected to have hotter, drier summers, and milder, wetter winters. While the milder winters will likely reduce frost damage on seedlings and allow for an earlier start to the growing season, drought stress is an increasingly prevalent threat for species adapted to current climate. Changing temperature and precipitation parameters will require strategic planting and maintenance of our forests to meet new challenges.
Climate adapted forests are forests where management strategies are implemented to maintain ecosystem diversity even as the climate changes over the next century. So what can we do to support our forests? Climate scientists from the Climate Change Response Framework suggest three main types of forest management approaches:
Resistance actions: Protect species that are at risk (known as climate losers), by maintaining their habitat and reducing risks such as insects and disease
Example in our plot: Northern red oak, red maple, and sugar maple are mesic species often associated with the “Northern Hardwoods” forest type whose range will move north.
Resilience actions: Increase diversity of native species and forest types expected to thrive in future conditions (known as climate winners)
Example in our plot: white and black oak are native oaks expected to become more common under future climates
Response actions: Introduce species (known as new arrivals) that currently grow in places with climate conditions similar to those expected in Pennsylvania in the future.
Examples in our plot: sweetgum, southern red oak, shortleaf and loblolly pines are not found in the Ridge and Valley region of PA currently. For this project, we are sourcing sweetgum from Ohio, both pine species from New Jersey, and southern red oak from Virginia. The climates at our source site resemble conditions projected for central PA in 100 years.