Average effective tariff rate in the U.S.

Updated 27/02/2026

This page was launched on 09/04/2025. It presents historical data on U.S. average effective tariff rate together with pre- and post-substitution estimate of this rate by The Budget Lab at Yale, reflecting enacted changes to tariff policy. U.S. customs duty revenue data published in Monthly Treasury Statement releases, which is seasonally adjusted by me using X-13ARIMA-SEATS, is also presented on this page. This data together with monthly imports of goods data allows to calculate the average effective tariff rate. The resulting time series allows for tracking this rate monthly. Spreadsheet is available for download. This page will be updated regularly after customs duty revenue and goods imports data is published.

Additional information

• The pre-substitution estimate of the average effective tariff rate is derived under the assumption that there are no shifts in import shares of different countries in response to tariffs. The post-substitution estimate reflects the rate after imports shift in response to tariffs. According to the analysis published by The Budget Lab at Yale on February 21, 2026, implemented tariffs are equivalent to the average effective tariff rate of 12.2% measured pre-substitution and 10.9% measured post-substitution. These estimates take into account the 10% Section 122 tariffs that were imposed immediately following the SCOTUS ruling on February 20, 2026 that struck down the IEEPA tariffs. The Section 122 tariffs became effective on February 24, 2026 and will expire on July 24, 2026. If these tariffs are not extended or replaced with other tariffs, the pre- and post-substitution average effective tariff rate is estimated at 9.1% and 8.0%, respectively.

• The seasonal adjustment procedure is performed every time a new monthly observation of the customs duty revenue becomes available. Due to this the resulting seasonally adjusted time series of the customs duty revenue, as well as the seasonally adjusted time series of the average effective tariff rate, is revised over time.

• Data from Daily Treasury Statement releases is used occasionally to approximate the customs duty revenue in a given month before the scheduled Monthly Treasury Statement is published. Relevant information is placed below the data table if this is the case.

Source: own calculations.