Average effective tariff rate in the U.S.

Updated 12/09/2025

This page was launched on 09/04/2025. It presents historical data on U.S. average effective tariff rate together with pre- and post-substitution estimate of this rate in 2025 by The Budget Lab at Yale. U.S. customs duty revenue data published in Monthly Treasury Statement releases, which is seasonally adjusted by me using X-13ARIMA-SEATS, is also presented on this page. This data together with monthly imports of goods data allows to calculate the average effective tariff rate. The resulting time series allows for tracking this rate monthly. Spreadsheet is available for download. This page will be updated regularly after customs duty revenue and goods imports data is published.

Additional information

• The pre-substitution estimate of the average effective tariff rate is derived under the assumption that there are no shifts in import shares of different countries in response to tariffs. The post-substitution estimate reflects the rate after imports shift in response to tariffs. According to the analysis published by The Budget Lab at Yale on September 4, 2025, tariffs implemented in 2025 are equivalent to the average effective tariff rate of 17.4% measured pre-substitution and 16.4% measured post-substitution. If the Supreme Court invalidates the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs and they are not replaced with tariffs under alternative authorities, both the pre- and post-substitution rate would be 6.8%.

• The seasonal adjustment procedure is performed every time a new monthly observation of the customs duty revenue becomes available. Due to this the resulting seasonally adjusted time series of the customs duty revenue, as well as the seasonally adjusted time series of the average effective tariff rate, is revised over time.

• Data from Daily Treasury Statement releases is used occasionally to approximate the customs duty revenue in a given month before the scheduled Monthly Treasury Statement is published. Relevant information is placed below the data table if this is the case.

Source: own calculations.