Tracking COVID-19 recession and recovery in the U.S.

Updated 06/10/2021

This page was launched on 07/04/2020. It presents evolution of selected U.S. economic variables around NBER dated business cycle turning points in the post-war period.

Economic developments at the beginning of COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 indicated that the world economy has entered a recession due to sudden stop of economic activity. Although NBER did not declare a recession in the U.S. economy at the time this page was launched, I assumed that when it does, the dating will reveal that the business cycle peak occurred in February 2020 and hence March 2020 will mark the first month of the twelfth U.S. post-war recession. In quarterly terms I assumed that NBER will determine the business cycle peak in Q4 2019 and hence Q1 2020 will be counted as a recessionary period. In June 2020 NBER indeed determined February 2020 and Q4 2019 as business cycle turning points in monthly and quarterly economic activity respectively (NBER statement). Further developments in the U.S. economy over the course of 2020 reveald that the recession induced by the COVID-19 pandemic most likely ended in April 2020, which I assumed to be the business cycle trough, that NBER will declare in the future. In quarterly terms I assumed that Q2 2020 marked the business cycle trough. For reference see The COVID recession is over by Professor James D. Hamilton on Econbrowser. In July 2021 NBER announced that indeed April 2020 and Q2 2020 marked business cycle troughs in monthly and quarterly economic activity respectively (NBER statement).

Below I enclose charts presenting selected monthly and quarterly economic variables, that I believe to be worth tracking during the current cycle. I present these variables in terms of changes relative to the level at business cycle peak and trough. Enclosed charts compare the current cycle to the average and range of the previous cycles in the post-war period.

This page will no longer be updated.

Monthly data set - business cycle peak based

Source: own calculations based on NBER, BLS, FRB and BEA data.

Quarterly data set - business cycle peak based

Source: own calculations based on NBER and BEA data.

Monthly data set - business cycle trough based

Source: own calculations based on NBER, BLS, FRB and BEA data.

Quarterly data set - business cycle trough based

Source: own calculations based on NBER and BEA data.