The price of NSE unlisted shares has jumped roughly 60% over the last two weeks. If you're watching the private market or thinking about buying into NSE before its IPO, that's a big move to pay attention to.
Let’s break it down: what’s going on, why the price is moving up so fast, what this means, and what to watch out for.
There’s no one single reason. But here’s what we know.
The National Stock Exchange of India has been planning to go public for years. Regulatory hurdles, a co-location case, SEBI investigations — they’ve all delayed it.
Now, there’s strong chatter in private investor circles that NSE might finally be on track for its IPO in FY25 or FY26. People want in before that happens. That’s pushing demand up.
NSE is still highly profitable. Its consolidated profit for FY24 came in around ₹10,400 crore, according to people close to the numbers. That’s a 34% jump from the year before. That’s not small.
Revenue is growing steadily. Expenses are under control. They also announced a 310% dividend for FY24. So from an investor point of view, it’s a stable, cash-generating business.
Unlisted shares are a thinly traded market. A few large trades can move the price. Over the past two weeks, multiple brokers have reported buyer interest surging while sellers have pulled back. That imbalance alone is enough to move the needle.
As of now, shares are changing hands between ₹3,700 and ₹4,000 — up from ₹2,500 levels in mid-May.
These are unlisted shares, not traded on stock exchanges. So how are people buying them?
Here’s the short version.
Shares are mostly available through intermediaries and brokers who deal in unlisted equities (like Planify, Altius, UnlistedZone, or wealth desks at family offices).
They get the shares from early investors, employees with ESOPs, or promoters.
You need a demat account. Payment and transfer happen off-exchange but through official depository participants.
There’s no real-time pricing. It’s negotiated. And yes, there are premiums.
Also: These are high-ticket transactions. Retail investors often need to buy in lots of 5 to 10 shares minimum.
This part is interesting.
Even at ₹4,000/share, a lot of analysts say NSE is still not priced like its listed peers. Here’s how that math works.
At ₹4,000 per share and ~50 crore outstanding shares, NSE’s market cap in the unlisted market is about ₹2 lakh crore.
With ₹10,400 crore profit in FY24, the P/E ratio is around 19.2x.
Compare that to which trades at a much higher multiple (over 30x P/E in some estimates) despite lower profits. NSE also has a 92% market share in equity cash trading and about 100% in equity derivatives. Dominance matters.
So, if this were listed, a higher valuation could be justified. That’s the thinking behind the “still undervalued” label.
A lot of people get burned in the unlisted market. Here are the common mistakes:
Not knowing where the shares are coming from. If you don’t verify the source (original shareholder, ESOP, promoter holding), you could be stuck with legal headaches later.
Buying without understanding the lock-in. Post-IPO, there’s a 6-month lock-in period under SEBI rules. You can’t sell right away.
Falling for inflated prices. Unlisted markets are opaque. Prices aren’t regulated. If you don’t benchmark to company performance, you might overpay.
Assuming you can exit whenever you want. Liquidity is limited. Brokers may not find buyers when you want to sell.
No dividend access in some cases. If your name isn’t in the company’s register in time, you might miss dividends.
So — yes, the upside is real. But if you don’t know what you’re doing, you’re playing blind.
Don’t expect this price rally to go forever. Here’s what could change the mood:
No clarity on IPO timelines: If SEBI or the company doesn’t move forward on the IPO in the next few quarters, interest could fizzle.
Macro shocks: Interest rate changes, FIIs pulling out of Indian markets, or any big shock could hit investor appetite for high-premium bets.
Regulatory pressure: If SEBI tightens norms around unlisted trades or introduces new lock-in rules, demand could slow.
Too much hype: When too many retail investors start piling in late, you often see short-term price corrections.
The higher the unlisted price goes, the more pressure on NSE to list at a strong valuation. If the IPO pricing is conservative, early investors might not see upside. On the other hand, if it’s too aggressive, retail IPO buyers might back off.
NSE is likely watching the unlisted price movement closely. It signals investor interest. But it also sets expectations that might be tough to manage at listing.
Keep an eye on SEBI filings. Any new IPO paperwork or regulatory clearances will spike volumes again.
Look out for big investor exits in the unlisted market. If early PE funds start selling, it could signal either confidence or a peak.
Stay skeptical of brokers offering “guaranteed listing gains.” This is still private equity, not a lottery ticket.
If you’re thinking about buying NSE unlisted shares now, you’re late to the early round but not necessarily too late to get in before listing. Just don’t do it blindly. Understand what you’re buying. And how long you may have to hold it.
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