Name optometrists on the HPSS Award
⬤ [LIVE] workforce data for
Australian clinical optometrists
Workforce modelling
Workforce supply and demand modelling are presented below using ⬤ [LIVE] data, updated as new releases become available. These outputs are intended as an open, interpretable resource for stakeholders, ranging from general insight and individual relocation decisions to larger-scale planning by clinics, universities, and policymakers.
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Oversupply can be defined several ways, but a practical measure is whether estimated supply capacity (optometrists’ clinical hours worked) exceeds observed service utilisation (Medicare-billed hours). Specifically, the following service utilisation model is derived from a 2025 workforce report and updated with:
Historical data, location (state/territory) data, and additional Medicare items
Weekly-accurate conversions (4.33 wks/mth vs 4), with adjustments for annual leave, personal/sick and carer's leave, and administrative time
Clinical hours calibrated by year and state/territory (vs a static national average), derived from active practising clinicians only
Note that this approach does not fully capture latent oversupply, including optometrists unable to secure their desired hours, nor private or Medicare under-billing.
Clinician headcount is rising, while average weekly hours are falling.
However, the total clinical hours worked continues to increase at broadly similar rates to Medicare-billed hours.
∴ Oversupply is compounding, diluting clinical hours per optometrist
*An alternative theoretical population needs-based model is available here*
Maldistribution can be assessed by whether optometrist supply is aligned to population need across geography, expressed here as population coverage – the number of people each full-time-equivalent (FTE) optometrist services. Results are presented by:
Rurality (Modified Monash Model [MMM]; MM1 metropolitan vs MM2–MM7 non-metropolitan) and
Primary Health Networks (PHNs; primary healthcare service areas)
A benchmark of 1-clinician:10,000-people is used as a practical indicator of service access. Areas above this threshold have sparse and insufficient coverage (clinician shortage), while areas below it have dense and sufficient coverage (clinician oversupply).
Proportionally, clinician distribution in non-metropolitan vs metropolitan areas is only slightly below population distribution.
Consistently, population coverage is modestly less dense in non-metropolitan areas. Clinician oversupply is evident across most MMM categories, with small shortages in very rural communities.
The non-metropolitan to metropolitan gap is narrowing, projected to equalise by the year...
∴ Maldistribution is modest and improving;
rural clinician shortages are small
Further analysis across Australia’s 31 Primary Health Networks (PHNs) provides a more practical view, as PHNs align with primary care planning, Local Hospital Networks, and referral pathways including ophthalmology access.
Currently, all PHNs are below the 1-clinician:10,000-people benchmark, indicating sufficient population coverage at the PHN level.
∴ All PHNs are sufficiently covered by optometrists
Scenario/simulation models estimating how the workforce changes under different conditions
The number of clinicians needing redistribution from metropolitan to non-metropolitan areas can be estimated several ways.
Regardless of method, the number of clinicians that could be redistributed rurally is a small fraction of the current oversupply.
∴ Rural redistribution offers marginal reprieve from oversupply
The non-corporate share of the optometry job market (last 12mths) was...
Yet a recent national workforce survey found up to 78% of optoms were not satisfied with their career, including some already in non-corporate roles.
∴ Moving out of corporate practice at scale is not feasible
Moving from the traditional 30 min to 20 min appointments increases theoretical throughput by 50% (3 patients/hour vs 2). More realistically using Medicare services data, shifting comprehensive consults (mean 28.5 min) and contact lens consults to 20 min would effectively add...
∴ Accepting shorter appointment times has real effects on your peers
For many years, Australia had three optometry schools: UNSW (NSW), QUT (QLD), and the University of Melbourne (VIC). Since ~2010, four new programs have entered the pipeline with varying dates of when graduates first entered the workforce:
Flinders University (SA), 02/2015
Deakin University (VIC), 08/2015
University of Canberra (ACT), 08/2022
University of Western Australia (WA), 02/2024
While the impact of any single program cannot be isolated, historical trends can indicate whether service-access gaps have narrowed alongside these new graduate inflows.
Currently, most ruralities (MMM) and all PHNs show sufficient service access (<1-clinician:10,000-people), even in the sparsest areas.
Accordingly, remaining shortages in very rural communities are small, and there are generally no shortages in any PHN.
Even if targeting very dense coverage (≈1-clinician:5,000-people), extrapolating current linear trends...
The only exception is the NT, where population coverage is not improving over time. Recent proposals for an NT optometry school argue that local training increases the likelihood graduates remain in (or return to) the region.
To test this premise, the modelling below uses Flinders University (SA) as a practical analogue, as it introduced a new program in a state without a prior school and outside the eastern-state training corridor. The analysis focuses on clinician supply density (FTE clinicians per 10,000 population; the inverse of population coverage), comparing linear change before vs after Flinders graduates entered the workforce (early-2015). Given the NT is entirely non-metropolitan, the analysis uses non-metropolitan trends.
Three scenarios for a hypothetical NT optometry school (with graduates entering the workforce from 2035) are modelled:
1) No change – no NT school effect on clinician supply density,
2) Optimistic – NT mirrors SA's change in full, and
3) Conservative – NT experiences half of SA’s change, allowing for expected smaller cohorts and weaker retention in the NT.
Accordingly, the time to materially improve NT supply density is long – decades, potentially closer to a century.
Historical patterns also indicate that increases in local non-metropolitan supply are typically accompanied by larger increases elsewhere. For every 1 FTE clinician added to non-metropolitan areas, approximately 1.5 FTE clinicians are added to metropolitan areas. In the NT context (entirely non-metropolitan), this implies most graduates would increase supply outside the NT, further compounding national oversupply.
Alternatively, given the NT's relatively small population and small number of FTE clinicians required...
These numbers are very achievable through targeted actions, such as strengthened rural placement pipelines, direct rural incentives, and telehealth-supported models of eyecare, rather than expanding training capacity and exacerbating oversupply across Australia.
∴ New schools are inefficient for improving population service access
Data provenance and use
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