Workforce Map

Clinician headcount is rising, while average weekly hours are falling.

However, the total clinical hours worked continues to increase at broadly similar rates to Medicare-billed hours.

∴ Oversupply is compounding, diluting clinical hours per optometrist

*An alternative theoretical population needs-based model is available here*

Consistently, population coverage is modestly less dense in non-metropolitan areas. Clinician oversupply is evident across most MMM categories, with small shortages in very rural communities.

∴ Maldistribution is modest and improving;
rural clinician shortages are small

∴ All PHNs are sufficiently covered by optometrists

Regardless of method, the number of clinicians that could be redistributed rurally is a small fraction of the current oversupply.

∴ Rural redistribution offers marginal reprieve from oversupply

Yet a recent national workforce survey found up to 78% of optoms were not satisfied with their career, including some already in non-corporate roles.

∴ Moving out of corporate practice at scale is not feasible

 20 min appointments were standard?

Moving from the traditional 30 min to 20 min appointments increases theoretical throughput by 50% (3 patients/hour vs 2). More realistically using Medicare services data, shifting comprehensive consults (mean 28.5 min) and contact lens consults to 20 min would effectively add...

∴ Accepting shorter appointment times has real effects on your peers

Currently, most ruralities (MMM) and all PHNs show sufficient service access (<1-clinician:10,000-people), even in the sparsest areas.

Accordingly, remaining shortages in very rural communities are small, and there are generally no shortages in any PHN.

Even if targeting very dense coverage (≈1-clinician:5,000-people), extrapolating current linear trends...

The only exception is the NT, where population coverage is not improving over time. Recent proposals for an NT optometry school argue that local training increases the likelihood graduates remain in (or return to) the region. 

To test this premise, the modelling below uses Flinders University (SA) as a practical analogue, as it introduced a new program in a state without a prior school and outside the eastern-state training corridor. The analysis focuses on clinician supply density (FTE clinicians per 10,000 population; the inverse of population coverage), comparing linear change before vs after Flinders graduates entered the workforce (early-2015). Given the NT is entirely non-metropolitan, the analysis uses non-metropolitan trends.

Three scenarios for a hypothetical NT optometry school (with graduates entering the workforce from 2035) are modelled: 

1) No change – no NT school effect on clinician supply density, 

2) Optimistic – NT mirrors SA's change in full, and 

3) Conservative – NT experiences half of SA’s change, allowing for expected smaller cohorts and weaker retention in the NT.

These numbers are very achievable through targeted actions, such as strengthened rural placement pipelines, direct rural incentives, and telehealth-supported models of eyecare, rather than expanding training capacity and exacerbating oversupply across Australia.

∴ New schools are inefficient for improving population service access