This is similar to my IMS Medallion Lecture at the Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM) in August 2020. Due to COVID 19, that meeting was a virtual event. This version is a re-recorded version, but is very similar to the original virtual version. As is typical of Medallion Lectures, it is about an hour and forty minutes in length.
References about Evidence Factors
Rosenbaum Paul R. Evidence factors in observational studies. Biometrika. 2010 Jun;97(2):333-45. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asq019 In JSTOR: https://www.jstor.org/stable/25734089
Rosenbaum Paul R. Some approximate evidence factors in observational studies. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 2011 Mar 1;106(493):285-95. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1198/jasa.2011.tm10422 In JSTOR: https://www.jstor.org/stable/41415552
Rosenbaum Paul R. The general structure of evidence factors in observational studies. Statistical Science. 2017;32(4):514-30. In ProjectEuclid http://doi:10.1214/17-STS621 and JSTOR https://www.jstor.org/stable/26408856
Rosenbaum Paul R. Replication and Evidence Factors in Observational Studies. Chapman and Hall/CRC; 2021 Mar 30. See the link in this web page under tab Books -> Replication and Evidence Factors in Observational Studies
Karmakar B, Small DS, Rosenbaum PR. Using evidence factors to clarify exposure biomarkers. American Journal of Epidemiology. 2020 Mar 2;189(3):243-9. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwz263
Rosenbaum Paul R. A second evidence factor for a second control group. Biometrics. 2023 Dec;79(4):3968-80. https://doi.org/10.1111/biom.13921
Rosenbaum PR. A New Construction of Evidence Factors in an Observational Study of Light Daily Alcohol Consumption and Longevity. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 2026, to appear. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2026.2624858
References about Triangulation in Causal Inference
Although evidence factors and triangulation are distinct topics in causal inference, they are related. See, for instance:
Lawlor DA, Tilling K, Davey Smith G. Triangulation in aetiological epidemiology. International Journal of Epidemiology. 2016 Dec 1;45(6):1866-86. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyw314
Munafò MR, Davey Smith G. Robust research needs many lines of evidence. Nature. 2018 Jan 25;553(7689):399-401. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-01023-3