Polling
Previously in March, Kean may have held a slight lead on the Congressional District polls.
Malinowski Favored to Win District 7
However as of October 24, 2020, Malinowski has an 88% chance of winning the election, while Kean only has a 12% chance of winning. Along with this, the predicted voter distribution was 54% - Malinowski, to 46% - Kean.
Monmouth University polls in April 2020 show that people prefer Democratic officers' reactions to the pandemic to Republican's
Quinnipiac Polls - the People of New Jersey on the Economy
The following questions show that the economy isn't a priority for the state of New Jersey
Many of the people in New Jersey think the economy is not so good, and more than 20% of them think
Most people think that the economy shouldn't open immediately, contradicting most Republican's beliefs that it should.
For over 70% of people, the economy isn't a priority. They care more about slowing the spread of the virus
In addition, Quinnipiac polls in May 2020 found that about half of New Jersey and other Democratic states found that COVID-19 gave them financial strain and about a third of say they've "lost their job or a substantial portion of their household income." However, 29% of New Jerseyans, the highest among the states surveyed, are optimistic of an economic recovery.
The Rethink Energy Report also states that if the economy were in question, the people of New Jersey (62%) would rather continue with the switch to renewable and clean energy than the inexpensive option of gas and pollutants, showing that the economy is behind both the coronavirus and the environment on the New Jerseyan's list of priorities.
Rethink Energy Report - Importance of different forms of clean energies on the environment
Q1. Which source do you think is most important to New Jersey’s energy future?
According to the graph on the right, a plurality say that solar is the most important source of energy in the future.
Demographics of people who voted for the chart above
Other information from this poll: Over 60% of people think that it is very important to invest in renewable energy resources. A majority of people also disagree with the government's plan for greater fossil fuel development (38% total). 50% of people said that if a candidate supported moving from fossil fuels to renewable energy, they would be more likely to vote for him/her (Malinowski). The environment however, isn't a pressing issue for everyone, as 34% of people said that it didn't matter whether or not the candidate they're voting for cares about the environment. Both Democrats and Republicans favor New Jersey's plan to move to 100% clean energy by 2050. However, the Democratic party (69%) is more concerned about the effects of climate change than the Republican Party (18%).
Pew research Center - New Jersey holds many immigrants
Because New Jersey holds many immigrants, they are more likely to vote for policies in favor of immigration - more likely to vote for Malinowski as he supports policies that will benefit them.
Summary
The state of New Jersey is a very Democratically leaning state following the "blue wave" in the previous congressional election. The question for this election is if these districts will hold onto their comfortable lead from the previous election. Polls taken earlier this year told of a tight-knit race between Incumbent Tom Malinowski and Challenger Thomas Kean. However, nearing the election after Presidential Debates, it can be seen that there's a clear favoring for the incumbent, but only a slight margin of victory of 8% for Malinowski. This blue trend can also be seen in public support for Governor Murphy's and President Trump's handling of the pandemic among New Jerseyans, with the overall belief in a healthier populace than a stronger economy (also possessing stronger support for Democratic candidate Joe Biden than Donald Trump). In addition, the majority's support for renewable energy sources than fossil fuels shows the liberal mindset of many and the confidence possessed in their leaders. A reason why these Democratic views have stayed within the state, and are catching onto this district, is a result of the predominance of immigrants and minorities along with progressive views.
The odds are stacked against Kean as he faces a district that flipped in the "Blue Tide."