Working Papers

"Roadblock or Accelerator? The Effect of Electric Vehicle Subsidy Elimination". Under Review.

(Current Draft: May 2023)

Federal and state governments in many countries subsidize the early adopters of electric vehicles (EVs) to promote green technology. These programs often use quotas or deadlines, to phase out the subsidies, which can create dynamic incentives for car manufacturers. Most papers in the literature study the effect of subsidy introduction on market outcomes in static settings, but there is little work that addresses the dynamic effects of subsidy capping designs. This paper explores these effects in the US electric vehicle market. I develop a structural model of the consumer vehicle choice and manufacturer's pricing decisions in the US automobile industry and estimate it using comprehensive data on new vehicle registrations, prices, characteristics, subsidies, and demographics in 30 states between 2011-2017. Based on the primitives that are generated from the model, I conduct counterfactual simulations to compare three subsidy capping designs: a market-wide deadline, a per-manufacturer deadline, and a per-manufacturer quota. Counterfactual simulations show that, given government expenditure, a per-manufacturer quota leads to 18% lower EV sales than the policies with deadlines. Moreover, each subsidy capping design influences the sales of conventional vehicles, consumer surplus, manufacturer profits, and liquid fuel consumption differently.

"To Buy an Electric Vehicle or Not? A Bayesian Analysis of Consumer Intent in the United States"  with Mohammad Arshad Rahman. Under Review.

The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is considered critical to achieving climate goals, yet it hinges on consumer interest. This study explores how public intent to purchase EVs relates to four unexamined factors: exposure to EV information, perceptions of EVs' environmental benefits, views on government climate policy, and confidence in future EV infrastructure; while controlling for prior EV ownership, political affiliation, and demographic characteristics (e.g., age, gender, education, and geographic location). We utilize data from three nationally representative opinion polls conducted by the Pew Research Center between 2021 and 2023, and employ Bayesian techniques to estimate the ordinal probit and ordinal quantile models. Results from ordinal probit show that respondents who are well-informed about EVs, perceive them as environmentally beneficial, or are confident in development of charging stations are more likely to express strong interest in buying an EV, with covariate effects—a metric rarely reported in EV research—of 10.2, 15.5, and 19.1 percentage points, respectively. In contrast, those skeptical of government climate initiatives are more likely to express no interest, by more than 10 percentage points. Prior EV ownership exhibits the highest covariate effect (ranging from 19.0 to 23.1 percentage points), and the impact of most demographic variables is consistent with existing studies. The ordinal quantile models demonstrate significant variation in covariate effects across the distribution of EV purchase intent, offering insights beyond the ordinal probit model. This article is the first to use quantile modeling to reveal how covariate effects differ significantly throughout the spectrum of EV purchase intent.

Publications

"A Retrospective Analysis of Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Tailpipe Nitrogen Oxides Emissions Standards" with Joshua Linn, Lucie Bioret, Emma DeAngeli, Nicholas Roy and Beia Spiller. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment (2025).

This paper presents a retrospective analysis of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) 2007 NOx regulations for heavy-duty vehicles. We replicate EPA’s on-road emissions model, replacing assumptions on vehicle sales, scrappage rates, NOx certification rates, and vehicle use with observed 2022 outcomes to test their accuracy and long-term effect on NOx estimates, providing a basis to assess methods used in setting the 2022 standards. After replacing all assumptions with data, we find EPA underestimated emissions in policy and no-policy scenarios by 0.71 and 0.59 million tons, with a 0.12 million ton error in their difference. The largest error came from overestimating scrappage of older vehicles, which underestimated emissions in both scenarios, on net understating reductions by 0.52 million tons. EPA also overestimated total vehicle miles while underestimating older-vehicle miles, on net overstating reductions by 0.51 million tons, largely offsetting the scrappage-related error. Assumptions on sales and certification rates had minor effects.

"Alternative Fuels for Reducing the Contribution of Aviation to Climate Change" with Michael Toman and Emily Joiner. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy (forthcoming).

This paper examines possibilities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from aviation through alternative aviation fuels with lower life-cycle emissions. After discussing various technological options for such fuels, the paper considers how various policies in the United States and other countries affect their production and usage. The paper also outlines a possible policy mechanism for reducing the carbon intensity of aviation fuel in the United States and highlights important questions that must be addressed to increase the use of low-carbon fuels.  

Related blogs:  Promoting Sustainable Aviation Fuels: Considerations for Policymakers; Supporting Policies for Sustainable Aviation Fuels: Key Areas for Further Research

"Women, Violence and Work: Threat of Sexual Violence and Women's Decision to Work" with Tanika Chakraborty. Review of  Development Economics (2025).

The stagnancy of women's workforce participation in urban India is alarming and puzzling, considering the pace of economic development experienced in the previous decade. We investigate the extent to which the low workforce participation of women can be explained by growing instances of officially reported crimes against women. We employ a fixed-effects strategy using district-level panel data between 2004-2012. To address additional concerns of endogeneity, we exploit state-level regulations in alcohol sale and consumption and provide estimates from two different strategies -- an instrumental variable approach and a border analysis. Our findings indicate that a one standard deviation increase in sexual crimes per 1000 women reduces the probability that a woman is employed outside her home by 9.4%. While we find some evidence of heterogeneity across regions and religions, overall, the deterrent effect seems to affect women equally across all economic, demographic, and social groups. 

Related blog: Is it safe? Threat of sexual violence and women’s decision to work, Ideas for India

"From Diesel to Electric: Overcoming Grid Integration Challenges in the Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Sector" with Beia Spiller. Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy (2023).

Decarbonizing the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) sector is crucial for a sustainable clean energy transition. This paper focuses on the challenges and opportunities associated with integrating medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicles (MHD EVs) into the electric grid. With large trucks and buses being responsible for a significant share of transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions, the need to address their environmental impact is paramount. Electrifying these vehicles has gained momentum as a technological solution given the environmental and economic benefits of MHD EV adoption, the readiness of the vehicle technology, and the existing range allowing for successful commercial operation of most use cases. From the most local to the federal levels of government, policymakers have injected billions of dollars into making this transition a reality; but the question remains—will it be enough? This paper explores the massive grid investments still remaining that are required to support the transition to electric MHDVs, along with technological solutions and policies that can help keep these costs down while accelerating vehicle adoption and improving environmental outcomes. By carefully designing policies based on sound research and analyses, an equitable, efficient, and cost-effective transition to MHDV electrification can be achieved. The paper concludes by highlighting open research questions that can guide further advancements in this field. This work aims to inform policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers involved in the pursuit of a sustainable transportation sector.

"Are strategies for success different in test cricket and one-day internationals? Evidence from England-Australia rivalry" with Mohammad Arshad Rahman, Journal of Sports Analytics (2018).

The paper utilizes the entire cricketing data between England and Australia–Test and one-day international (ODI) matches played between 1877-2015 and 1971-2015, respectively–to provide an econometric perspective on the England-Australia rivalry. We employ the production function approach of Schofield (1988) and model Test match outcomes (loss, draw or win) using an ordinal probit model and ODI outcomes (loss or win) using a binary probit model. The results show that input measures critical to winning are different for the two formats and consequently a team should adopt different strategies in Test and ODI matches. We further show that influences which are perceived as important to match outcomes, including electing to bat first after winning the toss and effect of weather conditions, do not have any statistical support. However, there is strong evidence that England is at a disadvantage while playing a Test match in Australia. Besides, we find that home bias as typically defined in the literature may not necessarily indicate favoritism by umpires. The estimated models fit well and correctly predict about 70% of Test match outcomes and 95% of ODI outcomes. 

Work in Progress

"Differential Regulation and Firm Responses: A Study of the CAFE Standard”, with Ying Fan

This paper analyzes the equilibrium effects of separating passenger cars and light trucks in the US Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards. The favorable treatment of light trucks creates a perverse incentive for automakers to redesign large cars as trucks to achieve compliance. In doing so, automakers can increase the average fuel economy for both fleets since a redesigned vehicle that would have fallen short of the car standard may exceed the truck standard. To examine how firms exploit the differential regulatory treatment of cars and trucks, we first exploit the historical changes in the car-truck definitions to document the extent to which firms change product characteristics to qualify for favorable regulatory treatment. Next, we develop and estimate a structural model of the US automobile industry to quantify the welfare effects of the differential treatment. To quantify the welfare effect of the regulation gaming, we recompute a counterfactual pricing equilibrium by changing "marginal" trucks to become cars. Finally, to quantify the effect of car-truck differential treatment on product choice, we recompute an equilibrium with endogenous product choice under an alternative policy that harmonizes the car and truck standards. 

"Impact of Flight Emissions Information on Consumer Demand: Evidence from the US Airline Industry", with Xuan Teng

In recent years, flight-booking platforms such as Google Flights and Skyscanner have begun displaying flight carbon emissions to encourage eco-friendly choices. This paper examines the impact of emissions disclosure on consumers'  flight decisions. Using US domestic flight data during 2018-2022 and a discrete-choice model, we estimate consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for lower-emission flights and assess how it changes with emissions information. We also simulate welfare impacts under a policy mandating emissions disclosure across all platforms. Preliminary findings suggest that disclosure increases consumers' WTP for lower-emission flights.

"Plugging Into Preferences: How Charging Infrastructure Drives EV Selections in the US", with Trenton Marable and Beia Spiller

Reports and Issue Briefs

Navigating Sustainable Skies: Challenges and Strategies for Greener Aviation, with Zhiqing (Phoebe) Wen, RFF Report (2024)

Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Electrification: Challenges, Policy Solutions, and Open Research Questions, with Emma DeAngeli and Beia Spiller, RFF Report (2023)

General Interest Articles

Advanced Economic Modeling Can Support the Transition to Electric Vehicles, with Joshua Linn and Beia Spiller, Common Resources (2024)

We Need to Know More about Who Benefits from Policies that Reduce Traffic Congestion, with Joshua Linn, Common Resources (2024)

Electrifying Large Vehicles, with Emma DeAngeli and Beia Spiller, RFF Blog Series (2023)