Working Papers

"Roadblock or Accelerator? The Effect of Electric Vehicle Subsidy Elimination"

(Current Draft: May 2023)

Federal and state governments in many countries subsidize the early adopters of electric vehicles (EVs) to promote green technology. These programs often use quotas or deadlines, to phase out the subsidies, which can create dynamic incentives for car manufacturers. Most papers in the literature study the effect of subsidy introduction on market outcomes in static settings, but there is little work that addresses the dynamic effects of subsidy capping designs. This paper explores these effects in the US electric vehicle market. I develop a structural model of the consumer vehicle choice and manufacturer's pricing decisions in the US automobile industry and estimate it using comprehensive data on new vehicle registrations, prices, characteristics, subsidies, and demographics in 30 states between 2011-2017. Based on the primitives that are generated from the model, I conduct counterfactual simulations to compare three subsidy capping designs: a market-wide deadline, a per-manufacturer deadline, and a per-manufacturer quota. Counterfactual simulations show that, given government expenditure, a per-manufacturer quota leads to 18% lower EV sales than the policies with deadlines. Moreover, each subsidy capping design influences the sales of conventional vehicles, consumer surplus, manufacturer profits, and liquid fuel consumption differently.

"Women, Violence and Work: Threat of Sexual Violence and Women's Decision to Work" (with Tanika Chakraborty)

The stagnancy of women's workforce participation in urban India is alarming and puzzling, considering the pace of economic development experienced in the previous decade. We investigate the extent to which the low workforce participation of women can be explained by growing instances of officially reported crimes against women. We employ a fixed-effects strategy using district-level panel data between 2004-2012. To address additional concerns of endogeneity, we exploit state-level regulations in alcohol sale and consumption and provide estimates from two different strategies -- an instrumental variable approach and a border analysis. Our findings indicate that a one standard deviation increase in sexual crimes per 1000 women reduces the probability that a woman is employed outside her home by 9.4%. While we find some evidence of heterogeneity across regions and religions, overall, the deterrent effect seems to affect women equally across all economic, demographic, and social groups. 

In Media: Ideas for India

Publications

"From Diesel to Electric: Overcoming Grid Integration Challenges in the Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Sector" (With Beia Spiller)

Decarbonizing the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) sector is crucial for a sustainable clean energy transition. This paper focuses on the challenges and opportunities associated with integrating medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicles (MHD EVs) into the electric grid. With large trucks and buses being responsible for a significant share of transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions, the need to address their environmental impact is paramount. Electrifying these vehicles has gained momentum as a technological solution given the environmental and economic benefits of MHD EV adoption, the readiness of the vehicle technology, and the existing range allowing for successful commercial operation of most use cases. From the most local to the federal levels of government, policymakers have injected billions of dollars into making this transition a reality; but the question remains—will it be enough? This paper explores the massive grid investments still remaining that are required to support the transition to electric MHDVs, along with technological solutions and policies that can help keep these costs down while accelerating vehicle adoption and improving environmental outcomes. By carefully designing policies based on sound research and analyses, an equitable, efficient, and cost-effective transition to MHDV electrification can be achieved. The paper concludes by highlighting open research questions that can guide further advancements in this field. This work aims to inform policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers involved in the pursuit of a sustainable transportation sector.

"Are strategies for success different in test cricket and one-day internationals? Evidence from England-Australia rivalry" (with Mohammad Arshad Rahman)

The paper utilizes the entire cricketing data between England and Australia–Test and one-day international (ODI) matches played between 1877-2015 and 1971-2015, respectively–to provide an econometric perspective on the England-Australia rivalry. We employ the production function approach of Schofield (1988) and model Test match outcomes (loss, draw or win) using an ordinal probit model and ODI outcomes (loss or win) using a binary probit model. The results show that input measures critical to winning are different for the two formats and consequently a team should adopt different strategies in Test and ODI matches. We further show that influences which are perceived as important to match outcomes, including electing to bat first after winning the toss and effect of weather conditions, do not have any statistical support. However, there is strong evidence that England is at a disadvantage while playing a Test match in Australia. Besides, we find that home bias as typically defined in the literature may not necessarily indicate favoritism by umpires. The estimated models fit well and correctly predict about 70% of Test match outcomes and 95% of ODI outcomes. 

Work in Progress

"Differential Regulation and Firm Responses: A Study of the CAFE Standard” (with Ying Fan)

This paper analyzes the equilibrium effects of separating passenger cars and light trucks in the US Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards. The favorable treatment of light trucks creates a perverse incentive for automakers to redesign large cars as trucks to achieve compliance. In doing so, automakers can increase the average fuel economy for both fleets since a redesigned vehicle that would have fallen short of the car standard may exceed the truck standard. To examine how firms exploit the differential regulatory treatment of cars and trucks, we first exploit the historical changes in the car-truck definitions to document the extent to which firms change product characteristics to qualify for favorable regulatory treatment. Next, we develop and estimate a structural model of the US automobile industry to quantify the welfare effects of the differential treatment. To quantify the welfare effect of the regulation gaming, we recompute a counterfactual pricing equilibrium by changing "marginal" trucks to become cars. Finally, to quantify the effect of car-truck differential treatment on product choice, we recompute an equilibrium with endogenous product choice under an alternative policy that harmonizes the car and truck standards. 

"A Retrospective Analysis of Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Tailpipe Nitrogen Oxides Emissions Standards" (with Joshua Linn and Beia Spiller)

"Impact of Flight Emissions Information on Consumer Demand: Evidence from the US Airline Industry"  (with Xuan Teng)

Other Writing

Navigating Sustainable Skies: Challenges and Strategies for Greener Aviation (with Zhiqing (Phoebe) Wen), RFF Report, 2024

Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Electrification: Challenges, Policy Solutions, and Open Research Questions (with Emma DeAngeli and Beia Spiller), RFF Report, 2023

Electrifying Large Vehicles (with Emma DeAngeli and Beia Spiller), RFF Blog Series, 2023