One of the main reasons we wanted to try to put together a more complete pedigree database for Nigerians was to be able to see an accurate COI.
A COI is a coefficient of inbreeding, sometimes referred to simply as F. It is a measure developed by pioneering geneticist Sewall Wright and has been in use for almost a hundred years; it is often referred to as Wright's Coefficient. It is the standard calculation used by dog, cat, horse, cattle, sheep and you-name-it breeders, and also by geneticists researching human diseases and DNA. Wright's Coefficient is the calculation used by adgagenetics.
What does it do? Basically it measures the common ancestors and alleles shared by buck and doe in any given mating. In an article for the Institute of Canine Biology Dr. Carol Beuchat explains it very clearly:
"The coefficient of inbreeding is the probability of inheriting two copies of the same allele from an ancestor that occurs on both sides of the pedigree. These alleles are "identical by descent". The inbreeding coefficient is also the fraction of all of the genes of an animal that are homozygous (two copies of the same allele). So, for a mating that would result in offspring with an inbreeding coefficient of 10%, there is a one in 10 chance that any particular locus would have two copies of the same allele, and 10% of all of the genes in an animal will be homozygous."
The Nigerian Dwarf, as a breed, got really pretty really fast. This was to a large extent the result of the benefits of inbreeding - a technique which can be used to quickly fix desirable traits, so that they are identical by descent. But no one has really explored the potential pitfalls of inbreeding in the Nigerian Dwarf.
The danger of inbreeding is established science. As COI goes up, litters get smaller and include more stillbirths, diseases and syndromes linked to recessive autosomal conditions proliferate, the immune system becomes less robust, there is a higher - sometimes much higher - incidence of cancer, and life spans are shorter. Sometimes much shorter. In Standard Poodles, for example, poodles with a COI under 6.25% live an average four years longer than dogs with a COI of over 25%.
What does a COI of 25% represent?
This is the COI of a father-daughter, mother-son, full brother-full sister breeding. There are a number of dog registries which will not accept an animal for registration when the animal has this level of inbreeding.
So is 25% the highest COI possible? No. The COI should be calculated to at least 10 generations, and the COI can be - and is, in many Nigerians - higher than 25% when animals have been closely bred over multiple generations.
Unfortunately, you cannot get an accurate Nigerian COI at adgagenetics for two reasons. Firstly, for almost all Nigerians, the database does not go back ten generations. Secondly, because of the impact on the server, adgagenetics does not calculate COIs to ten generations, but to eight. So even if the information were there (for the most part, it isn't) it wouldn't be used. Not a big deal for the standard breeds, but a very big deal for Nigerians.
Why is this particularly important for Nigerians? Because Nigerians are a new breed, and because the ADGA herdbook, a purebred-only herdbook, has always been closed. There is no way to outcross. If you are breeding Alpines, you can cross in a Saanen or a grade or an NOA and breed up to American Alpine in a few generations. If you are breeding LaManchas, you can cross in and still breed up to Purebred - the herdbook never closed. But Nigerians are out of luck. You breed out of the original foundation pool of IDGR/AGS animals, which was estimated at about 700 animals. Of those 700, not more than half are still represented - their genes dropped out, for whatever reason.
So every registered Nigerian today goes back to a pool of not more than 350 foundation animals. Of those 350, some are much more widely represented than others. This is the "bottleneck" geneticists refer to - the shallow pool that every ND goat goes back to. To get a remotely accurate Nigerian COI, you need to go back at least 10 generations to those foundation animals.
This is a list of the Top 10 highest COIs in the MLDB database, where data is over 90% complete - either 10 generations or all the generations going back to foundation (this isn't 10 generations for some animals). They are listed here just to show the difference it makes having 10 generations of accurate pedigree information. On the left is the Missing LInk (MLDB) COI going back to the foundation animals; on the right is the adgagenetics COI. Not intended as criticism of any particular animal or herd; only for illustrative purposes.
Algedi Farm DJ Defying Gravity MLDB COI: 43.131% adgagenetics: 25%
Algedi Farm DJ Higgs Boson MLDB COI: 43.131% adgagenetics: 25%
Rosasharn Up Andromida MLDB COI: 42.22% adgagenetics: 2.93%
Twin Creeks WB Fire Storm MLDB COI: 41.237% adgagenetics: 0%
Algedi Farm DJ Piper MLDB COI: 40.30% adgagenetics: 25.95%
WGF Sally MLDB COI: 40.25% adgagenetics: 0%
Rosasharn AX Princes B MLDB COI: 35.44% adgagenetics: 12.55%
Rosasharn AX B-yootiful MLDB COI: 33.9% adgagenetics: 14.55%
Rosasharn AX Bee Balm MLDB COI: 33.9% adgagenetics: 14.55%
Rosasharn's Tiger I MLDB COI: 32.44% adgagenetics: 7.81%
A good question and there is no real definitive answer to it. The Institute of Canine Biology has a great essay on the pluses and minuses of inbreeding, and I strongly recommend reading the whole thing if you have time. The same site has another very illuminating article about the danger of popular sires. Keep in mind that the upper limit for the whole breed - the entire population - is very different from the upper limit for any given animal. Something to think about nonetheless. Here is an excerpt from their summary:
"The rule of thumb for sustainable breeding of both wild and domestic animals is to keep inbreeding below 5%, and to consider 10% an upper limit for a population. There might be occasional animals that are much higher than this (for example, in maintaining multiple herds to use for outcrossing within a line), but when the population average goes higher than about 10% things begin to go downhill. As fertility goes down and litters get smaller, there are fewer animals born each generation, and those that are have an increased risk of genetic disorders, shorter lifespans, and general lack of vigor. This becomes a negative feedback loop that is called "the extinction vortex", and once a population heads down this path it can be very difficult to stop. Note again, that threshold for this vortex phenomenon is about COI = 10%. For most livestock breeds being bred sustainably, inbreeding is kept well below this. Organization breeding guide and service dogs keep inbreeding below 10%. But among purebred dogs otherwise, a COI (calculated back to founders) could be very difficult to find. And evidence of inbreeding depression and the other consequences of inbreeding are very evident - singleton litters, high rates of cancer in young dogs, allergies, and many other issues that seem to be "normal" in the breeding of dogs these days."
One of the reasons we started trying to find a way to trace pedigrees back to the foundation animals was because of what I think is an alarmingly high incidence of cancer in the breed, specifically the well-known "tailfold cancer," usually diagnosed as squamous cell carcinoma. In cattle, horses, and people, squamous has a proven genetic component. Whether it does in Nigerians is unknown, because there is no research, but high rates of cancer are definitely associated with inbreeding, as are such well-documented disorders as G6S, the devastating genetic defect that affects Nubians. G6S is an autosomal recessive disorder, exactly the kind of sneaky syndrome that can wreak havoc in a highly homozygous (inbred) population. How long it had been in the breed no one knows, despite estimates that as many as 25% of Nubians were carriers. It certainly would not have been discovered when it was except for the fact that G6S has a human counterpart, Sanfilippo syndrome - which was known to be an inherited disorder - and the connection between the caprine and the human disease sparked research, experimentation, and the development of a test to identify carriers.
Inbreeding is rising across all dairy goat breeds, and it is rising among Nigerians much more dramatically than this chart shows. Curiously the dip you see in the chart below around 2005 is likely the result of all the Nigerians pouring into the ADGA registry - they would all have come in as 0% inbred - not because they were 0% inbred but because they had no ancestors in the database.
In a perfect world ADGA would have some policy about inbreeding and prescribe at least some recommended maximum COI percentages. They would also put online the pedigree information they have for Nigerians - this would assist breeders in making informed decisions.
In dogs many breeders have a simple rule of thumb - stay below the average COI for the breed. This wouldn't a bad starting point if we knew what the average COI for the breed was. We don't. But you could certainly do it in your own herd - find out your average herd COI, decide whether you think it is a good and safe range, and if not work to bring it down over time. Ask yourself also - is my herd getting less healthy as time passes? Am I seeing more fertility problems (closely linked to inbreeding) more stillbirths and abortions, smaller litters, higher mortality for kids? Are my animals getting smaller over time? Do they get sick more? Are they less productive on the whole? Are they harder to settle? Are mystery ailments popping up? Maybe it isn't just the funny weather or the crappy hay this year or the selenium or the copper. Maybe it's something else.
If you find your goat in the database, we can calculate a COI for you, send an email to herronhilldairy@gmail.com to request one. If your animal is not in the database, you can enter it by following the directions on this page. After all, why not get a little more information before you make breeding decisions. That's a good place to start.