Studies

The First Published Clinical Trial?

James Lind and Scurvy: The First Clinical Trial in History? - Performed in 1747 - Published in 1753


Recreation of Lind’s controlled trial for a BBC programme entitled ‘What the Industrial Revolution Did for Us: Modern Medicine’, presented by Dan Cruickshank and produced by Jonathan Hassid, and first broadcast on BBC 2 at 20.00 h, 28 October 2003.

Maybe the Most Damaging False Study of Recent Times

Retracted Study Linking the Measles Mumps and Rubella Vaccine (MMR) to Autism

https://briandeer.com/mmr/lancet-paper.htm

https://www.bmj.com/content/342/bmj.c5347.full


FIRST: Funding, Investigation, Results, Subjects, and Time


Funding/Conflict of Interest: The council also cited previously uncovered information about Wakefield’s research being partially funded by lawyers hoping to sue vaccine manufacturers on behalf of parents of children with autism.

Unknown to Mr 11, Wakefield was working on a lawsuit, for which he sought a bowel-brain “syndrome” as its centrepiece. Claiming an undisclosed £150 (€180, $230) an hour through a Norfolk solicitor named Richard Barr, he had been confidentially put on the payroll two years before the paper was published, eventually grossing him £435 643, plus expenses.

Small Sample Size: 12

No control group

Data Falsification: Deer reports that while the paper claimed that eight of the study’s 12 children showed either gastrointestinal or autism-like symptoms days after vaccination, records instead show that at most two children experienced these symptoms in this time frame.

Multiple Endpoints?: while the paper claimed that all 12 of the children were “previously normal” before vaccination with MMR, at least two had developmental delays that were noted in their records before the vaccination took place.

Let's Look at a Phantom Vibration Syndrome Study

Let's Look at an Alternative Meat Study

A Study that Impacted NHS Seniors

A few years back, a decision was made (intentional passive language) to adopt ERWC as the senior curriculum. I was put in a class to learn the materials and the recommended process about how to teach the ERWC class. I went into the class with a few questions:

  • Is this curriculum better than what we are doing now?

  • Does the curriculum work for high diversity populations living in low socio-economic conditions?

  • If it is better, how much better is it?

The instructor of the course stated that it was proven that ERWC works and is better because a study had just been done and the results were statistically significant! During the training course I started reading the study in between the class activities.

TLDR Effect

Looks like Science Effect

Teacher Trainer said it was good

Was written by University

Some Studies Need To Be "Blinded"

A company is developing a drug and is doing a study to determine if a pill has an effect.

Generic Study Story: Participants will get pills to take daily from a scientist. Participants will report their condition regularly and answer specific questions. Some participants get the real pill that they want to test, and some people will get a pill that does nothing. Results can be compared between the real pill and the placebo at the end.

  1. The participant can be "blinded" in a study. In a blinded study, information is kept from the participant that they don't need to know.

      • If the participant that knows they have the real pill might really feel good that they got it. The experiment wants to measure the effect of the pill, but not the psychological impact of hope and confidence on a person's health. Knowing will pollute the results.

      • If the participant is told that they have the fake pill, they will react poorly to the study. The depression and rejection might have negative effects on the person's health. Knowing will pollute the results.

      • If the person is told that some people get a real pill and some get a fake pill, and that nobody knows which one they get in the study, the results are more likely to be objective.

  2. The experimenter can be "blinded" in a study. In this type of blind, the person running the experiment does not know what kind of pill they are giving to participants.

      • If the person handing you a pill knows which pill you are getting, they may be giving away verbal and facial information away to the participant. The participant could interpret the experimenter's information and this could pollute the results.

  3. The data analyst can be "blinded" in a study. After the data is collected, the relevant parts can be sent to a third-party to analyze with only minimal instructions.

      • The independent analyst does not care one way or the other what the data shows and will remain objective. The person/company who designed the study might really want their hypothesis to be true. Their career and ego and financial future might be on the line This can lead them to consciously or unconsciously interpret results according to their own bias. This could pollute the results.

      • It is good scientific behavior to publish the results of the study no matter what the results indicate. There is a publication bias. Some people and companies have it in their interest to bury results that do not reflect their interests.

Blinding reduces bias but does not prevent it all. The study itself may introduce difference. For instance, in order to report the results to the experimenter, the participant has to report to an interviewer every other day to answer questions. The act of getting up, traveling, and interviewing provides both physical exercise, routine, and social stimulation that a participant might not have done normally. This creates a positive health reaction.


Confirmation Bias, Expectation Bias, Placebo



Lesson: Just as scientists want to prevent bias and unconscious bias from polluting the results, how can business use the strategy of "blinding" to prevent conscious and unconscious discrimination in hiring practices?

Placebo/Nocebo Effects

Kids respond stronger to placebo than adults? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2504483/


“The colour of a placebo can influence its effects. When administered without information about whether they are stimulants or depressives, blue placebo pills produce depressant effects, whereas red placebos induce stimulant effects (Blackwell et al., 1972). Patients report falling asleep significantly more quickly and sleeping longer after taking a blue capsule than after taking an orange capsule (Luchelli et al., 1978). Red placebos are more effective pain relievers than white, blue or green placebos (Huskisson, 1974; Nagao et al., 1968).”


https://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/09-05-20/#feature


* Placebo surgery works better than placebo injections

* Placebo injections work better than placebo pills

* Sham acupuncture treatment works better than a placebo pill

* Capsules work better than tablets

* Big pills work better than small

* The more doses a day, the better

* The more expensive, the better

* The color of the pill makes a difference

* Telling the patient, "This will relieve your pain" works better than saying "This might help."


Beats headphones have weights inside them to make them heavier and give the illusion of quality and sturdiness.

When cake mixes first came out you only had to add water to them, but too many housewives felt like that was cheating and wouldn’t buy cake mixes. So the cake mix companies added another step. The eggs. It worked, apparently the cracking and adding of the eggs to the batter was enough to make it feel more “homemade” and cake mixes became extremely popular.

The original Febreze was unscented, but nobody believed it worked so they added scent to it

I once spoke to a guy involved in developing the first ATM cash machines. Early trials showed that users thought that the dispensing of cash happened too fast and didn't trust that it had correctly debited their account for the right amount. So they inserted a wait cycle to make it appear that the machine was counting the cash. That wait cycle is still there today in most machines.

The exaggerated sounds of some vacuum cleaners, microwaves and cars to make them sound powerful. The loading screens on some apps that make it seem like they are doing something complex.

Car doors should close really quietly but they're designed to close loudly so you feel safe.

Bubbles in cleaning products.

Early formulations of soap WAY back when used to naturally form suds. Newer formulations can clean better but don't naturally produce suds as the bubbling was an incidental side effect that doesn't actually have any bearing on cleaning. When these newer soaps were first introduced people complained they didn't work because they didn't make loads of bubbles. So the manufacturers started adding a chemical solely to generate bubbles that didn't actually help with the cleaning at all and all the complaints stopped.

To this day the association of bubbles=clean is strong enough that they still do it. Basically all cleaning products, including toothpaste, foam up when used and almost without exception the foam is 100% marketing.

That minty fresh, zesty ‘clean’ feeling you get from toothpaste. It started as a marketing strategy and caught on, and now almost all toothpaste is mint because we associate the minty freshness with cleanliness.

Airport Security. Homeland Security's own inspectors were able to get illegal items through TSA checkpoints 70% of the time.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellistalton/2019/01/28/is-the-tsa-really-necessary/#1e2d4ddb25e0

Whenever I go to "look in the back" for an item that is clearly sold out.

"Detoxifying" nonsense juices. Your body's liver and Kidneys are enough to detoxify your blood. You don't need avocado smoothie with cow's cum inside it. (You only need water and sometimes some salts to do this)

Kissing a boo boo

I read a study a while ago that concluded that the average homeopathic consultation is much longer than the ones with medical doctors. From the parents' perspective, this means the world. They're listened to, right when they're at their most vulnerable and tired (because their sick child won't sleep). By listening, the homeopath can make common sense suggestions and motivate the parents to actually follow them. So, there's also a practical and psychological effect at play, in addition to the placebo effect of the diluted bullshit pills.

Astronomer here! Police and hospital workers may swear otherwise and always argue when I say this, but despite numerous studies, no significant correlation has been found between more crazy behavior and the full moon. People just tend to notice when there’s a full moon and it’s a particularly busy night is all- after all you’re not going to note the phase of the moon when it’s a new moon and thus literally no moon in the sky to note.

Period synchronization. Every woman I've ever met swears it's a thing, but the data show it is not. It's just that different people have slightly different cycles, so they go in and out of sync with each other constantly over time. Kind of like multiple cars' blinkers when stopped at a light.

When I was working a catering gig at my university, everyone eating off fancy plates at sit-down dinners in the ballrooms (fundraisers and receptions and every other formal dinner occasion that might be held at a university) were eating the same bulk commercial grade food that was served in the dorms.

They'd tell us to give their compliments to the chef.

Lady, the only difference between your $40 fancy reception plate porkchop and my $4 cafeteria porkchop was that mine came on a paper plate.

And yes, I do happen to know where the chef gets his choice cuts-- Aramark food services, just like everyone else.

But you put that stuff on a delicate plate with gold on the edges? They think it's the most wonderful thing they've eaten all year.

"It's gonna be ok."


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMGIbOGu8q0

I remember a riddle my professor told us a few months ago. A place had been getting complaints that the elevators took too long while they waited in the lobby and that they should speed them up! So as a problem solver, how would you fix that? Add more elevators? Increase the speed of the elevators? Neither. The solution to the problem was by adding mirrors in the lobbies. The mirrors distracted the customers of their awareness of how much time was being passed, thus creating a sense of 'faster' wait times.

Likes on social media posts. Friends on social media.

Feng shui.

Most pedestrian traffic buttons, elevator door open/close buttons, and hotel thermostat buttons are placebos.

Gluten free. Unless you've got celiac disease, you "feeling better" by eating gluten free is a placebo effect.

Johnson and Johnson made an antiseptic that didn't sting. People didn't think it was doing anything so the sting was brought back.

Fruit Loops are all the same flavor, but your brain thinks they’re different because of the different colors.

In Space Jam when they convinced the entire team the water would make them win

Do commissioned creative stuff, if I deliver same or next day, people don’t think I spent enough time on it. If I wait three days to driver, people are happy because they assume I worked on their project nonstop even though I was done a day or two prior

Studies Show

Video: The golf ball that made golfers too good - Vox - Mar 15, 2019


Most research findings are false because

  • Studies too small

  • Effect size too small (even if statistically significant)

  • ???Multiple endpoints

  • Possible bias from funding sources


Ioannidis showed that most research findings are false, especially if:•Small studies•Small effect size•Multiple endpoints•Financial interests and bias•Hot topic with more teams in competition