Research
(Photo credit: ILRI/Peter Ballantyne
(Photo credit: ILRI/Peter Ballantyne
"Fertility, Traditional Economic Activities, and Property Rights" (JMP)
Abstract: Fertility rates in Sub-Saharan Africa remain high and have declined more slowly than in other regions, even decades after the onset of the demographic transition. Rural areas consistently exhibit higher fertility than urban ones. Using data from the 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey, I classify rural households into farmers and pastoralists and compare fertility outcomes across these groups. The analysis shows that women from pastoralist households have significantly higher fertility than those from farming households. I link this disparity to differences in property rights embedded within the two traditional economic systems. Motivated by these findings, I develop a single-sector model in which resource ownership is costly to maintain but children can help reduce this cost. The model demonstrates that under incomplete property rights, fertility is higher off the steady state compared to a setting with complete property rights, offering a theoretical explanation for the persistence of elevated fertility among pastoralist communities.
WORK-IN-PROGRESS
"Untitled Agricultural Lands and Rural Population in Sub-Saharan Africa"
Abstract: The macro-development literature has shown the potential for migration to urban areas to improve the income and consumption of poor rural households in developing economies. Despite this, most of the population of sub-Saharan Africa lives in rural regions, with some countries registering a rural population share above seventy percent. I explore the role of untitled agricultural lands in explaining a higher population share in a parsimonious two-sector model. Household attachment to their land is crucial in explaining the higher rural population in the model. Model simulation accounting for improved institutions, such as improved property rights, reduces the rural population share by as much as 50 percent.
"Determinants of Poverty in Somalia" (with Mohamed Abdinoor and Abdi Kusow)
Abstract: Poverty remains a significant obstacle to sustainable economic development in Somalia. According to data from the Somalia National Bureau of Statistics, more than half of the population lives below the poverty line, defined as having daily per-capita consumption expenditure lower than the international poverty line (IPL) of US$1.90. Based on data from the Somalia Integrated Household Budget Survey (SIHBS) 2022, this study presents the latest poverty conditions in Somalia, utilizing a multivariate logistic regression analysis. We find that poverty among nomadic households is significantly higher than among their counterparts in rural and urban areas. We also find that formal education is significantly related to poverty. The most surprising finding in our study is that households headed by males are significantly more likely to be poor than those headed by females.
"Do Food Imports Perpetuate Subsistence Agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa?” (with Meenakshi Shekar)
Abstract: Despite dominating employment, Sub-Saharan African agriculture suffers from low productivity. This paper examines the potential role of food imports and high domestic inter-region transportation costs in the sluggish growth of Total Factor Productivity (TFP), potentially offering crucial insights for reviving Sub-Saharan African agriculture.
"Manufacturing as Conduit for Agricultural Technology Adoption"