Download Uncertainty Data

This section provides time-varying Sectoral Macroeconomic Uncertainty estimates for the business and household economies using quarterly macroeconomic data on the US. The measures use the methodology described in Estimating disaggregate time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty using a Dynamic Model Selection procedure. These measures are typically updated once a year.

Updated data 1960:Q1-2020:Q2

Firm uncertainty

Household uncertainty

Other uncertainty sub-indices:

Output Uncertainty Income & Earnings Uncertainty

Trade & Investment Uncertainty Consumption Uncertainty

Labor Uncertainty Unemployment & Labor Market Uncertainty

Sales & Inventories Uncertainty Housing Uncertainty

Price Uncertainty Prices Uncertainty

Productivity & cost of Production Uncertainty Loans & Credit Uncertainty

Financial Uncertainty Loans & Credit Uncertainty

Balance Sheet Uncertainty Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Uncertainty


Suggested Citation:

Zahran, M. S., (2021), "Estimating disaggregate time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty using a Dynamic Model Selection procedure" Working Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3924258 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3924258