Primary Fields: Macroeconomics | Macro-Finance
Secondary Fields: Econometrics | Public Economics
Regional expertise: Middle East and North Africa
Methods: Local projections and LP-IV; nonlinear and state-dependent LP; Dynamic Model Averaging DMA; data-rich measurements, forecasting and adaptive learning; high-frequency and narrative identification; structural DSGE modelling.
Software: MATLAB · Dynare · R · Python · Stata · SQL · LaTeX
Job Market Paper:
Global Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and the Composition of U.S. Monetary Policy Transmission [PDF]
How does global fiscal-policy uncertainty alter the transmission of U.S. monetary policy? I show that it changes not only the strength of transmission, but also its composition. Using high-frequency FOMC announcement news, I separate current-rate news from future-rate/path news and estimate state-dependent local projections conditioned on lagged global fiscal-policy uncertainty. Between months 0–3 and 9–12, the relative sensitivity of credit-risk pricing to current-rate rather than future-rate news rises by about 69.7 basis points for EMBI sovereign spreads and 0.42 percentage points for the U.S. excess bond premium. The rotation is driven by increasing current-rate sensitivity, while the future-rate/path component is small and imprecisely estimated. A one-dimensional monetary-news measure shows no comparable rotation. The results therefore document a compositional margin of monetary transmission that conventional scalar measures can obscure.
Publications
The Response of Remittances Inflows to Asymmetric Oil Price Shocks in Egypt (2019) PDF
I. Macroeconomics
A. Monetary and Fiscal Policy and Economic Fluctuations
Mortgage Repricing and Monetary Transmission [Revise and resubmit, Oxford Economic Papers]
External Shock Transmission in a Segmented Open Economy: Imported Inflation versus FX Stress [Under review, last updated in 2026 PDF]
Fiscal Uncertainty and the Dynamic Composition of U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers (last updated in 2026 PDF)
Monetary Tightening and Inflation-Risk Composition: The Role of Shock Identification
Beyond Prices: Exchange-Rate Transmission and Macro-Financial Adjustment in Egypt
B. Information, Expectations and Uncertainty
Treasury Absorption, Uncertainty Persistence, and Fiscal Transmission [Under review, last updated in 2026 PDF]
Macroeconomic Uncertainty in an External-Finance-Constrained Emerging Market (last updated in 2026 PDF)
Are Uncertainty Increases and Reductions Mirror Images? Evidence from U.S. Unemployment (with Vasco J. Gabriel and Hyejin Park)
What Counts as Mortgage Exposure? Borrowers, Debt and the Limits of Aggregate Information
II. Macro-finance
Treasury Financing Uncertainty, Private Credit, and Safe Yields (with Muhammad Ali Nasir) (last updated in 2026 PDF)
Monetary-Policy Surprises and Sovereign Financing Composition under Refinancing Constraints (last updated in 2026 PDF)
Measuring Hidden Exchange-Market Pressure When the FX Market Does Not Clear
Sovereign Refinancing Pressure and Private Credit During Monetary Tightening in Egypt
Gross Refinancing Pressure and Current-Account Adjustment in a Rationed Foreign-Exchange Market
III. Econometrics
Dynamic Model Averaging under Scale Instability: Bounded Predictive Evidence for U.S. Inflation Forecasting (last updated in 2026 PDF)
Selective Learning from Extreme Observations in Dynamic Model Averaging (last updated in 2026 PDF)
When the Denominator Moves: Exchange-Rate Paths and State-Dependent Pass-Through in Egypt
IV. Public Economics
The Incidence of Energy Subsidy Reform under Foreign-Exchange Scarcity: A Second-Best Reallocation Channel (last updated in 2026 PDF)
When the Average Hides the Transition: Fiscal Policy and Equity-Market Volatility
Work in Progress
Measuring Uncertainty - An Entropy-Based Approach (with Kevin Lee)
Fiscal Multipliers in Egypt: A Narrative-Disciplined Macro-Financial CGE Framework (with Mamdouh Mohamed)
Currency States and Uncertainty Transmission in Open Economies (with Husnu C. Dalgic)
Foreign-Exchange Rationing and Macroeconomic Propagation: The Remittance-Settlement Channel
Policy Publications & Reports
When a Stable Exchange Rate Hides Foreign-exchange Stress
A Budget Saving Is Not a Dollar Saving: Energy Reform under FX Scarcity in Egypt
Teaching & Pedagogy Publications
• Auditability as Pedagogy: Teaching Economics through Open Economic Policy (2026) Online
Applied Research & Industry Projects
When Does Real-Time Macro Information Improve Treasury Return Forecasts? 2024
From Oil Revenue to Private Credit: The Public-Sector Funding Channel in the GCC 2025
Who Should Get AI? Heterogeneous Productivity Effects and Optimal Enterprise AI Deployment 2026
Selected Conference Presentations
• University of Leicester (UK), 2026 — Dynamic Model Averaging under Scale Instability: Bounded Predictive Evidence for U.S. Inflation Forecasting
• MMF PhD Conference (UK), 2023 — Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty
• City St George's, University of London Conference (UK), 2023 — Macroeconomic effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty
• International Atlantic Economic Conference (Washington DC), 2022 — Fiscal Stimulus Effectiveness and Debt Financing in Periods of Persistent Uncertainty
• Annual European Economics and Finance Society EEFS Conference, (Cracow, Poland), 2022 — Time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty in the U.S.
• International Annual Autumn’s Conference, (Tehran, Iran), 2017 — Institutions and the effectiveness of government expenditures: evidence from middle eastern countries.
• WHO Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean, (Cairo, Egypt), 2014 — Cost-Benefit Analysis in public economics: Health sector application.
Archive of Conferences (AoC)