Welcome to my webpage
"I do not give knowledge; I only guide thought." - Dr. Mohamed Zahran
Welcome to my webpage
"I do not give knowledge; I only guide thought." - Dr. Mohamed Zahran
I am a Macroeconomist and a Fellow of the Higher Education Academy in the School of Economics at the University of Nottingham, and a Research Associate at the Economic Research Forum (ERF). I hold a PhD in Economics from City, University of London, and an MSc in Economics of the Middle East from Philipps-Universität Marburg. I have held visiting research positions at the University of Texas at Dallas and the University of Victoria. I have also undertaken specialised training through the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and attended a summer school at the University of Oxford.
I am working at the intersection of macroeconomics, macro-finance, econometrics and public economics. My research examines the transmission of monetary, fiscal and external shocks, with particular emphasis on how information, expectations, uncertainty, sovereign financing and foreign-exchange frictions shape macroeconomic outcomes.
My work combines empirical macroeconomic analysis, particularly local projections (LPs), with structural macroeconomic modelling, including dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. A complementary methodological strand focuses on time-series econometrics, macroeconomic forecasting, adaptive learning and model uncertainty, including dynamic model averaging (DMA), as well as econometric measurement and identification under imperfect information and structural instability.
I also investigate the transmission and economic incidence of public policies, particularly sovereign debt management, taxation and subsidy reform.
Citation: Zahran, Mohamed & Nasir, Muhammad Ali (2025) "Treasury Financing Uncertainty, Private Credit, and Safe Yields" Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7558418
Citation: Zahran, Mohamed (2022) "Macroeconomic Uncertainty in an External-Finance-constrained Emerging Market. Available at SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7524098
➡️ DOWNLOAD:🇪🇬Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) Monetary-Policy Surprises (2011Q1–2025Q4): A quarterly expectation-based measure of unexpected CBE policy-rate decisions, constructed from announced rate changes relative to pre-announcement Reuters/LSEG expectations. Positive values denote tighter-than-expected policy and negative values easier-than-expected policy. For data click HERE. [PDF]
Citation: Zahran, Mohamed (2023) "Monetary-policy Surprises and Sovereign Financing Composition under Refinancing Constraints". Available at SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7524219