Embedded Files
Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Galiński, Paweł R. & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2025. "Monetary and fiscal policy in a two-country model with behavioral expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
Download journal publication or working paper
We check how monetary and fiscal policies (in particular their open-economy dimension) are affected by expectations being behavioral in the spirit of Gabaix (2020). We first show that the data strongly favors this setting compared with the standard rational expectations assumption. Then we document several novel findings. First, monetary policy is less powerful and faces a higher sacrifice ratio when agents are behavioral. Second, the Taylor principle is affected: determinacy regions are larger if the economy is more open or the central bank abroad is more hawkish. Third, fiscal policy and its international spillovers are amplified under BE. In contrast, the spillovers of monetary policy are dampened. Fourth, BE contribute to solving the puzzle of excess foreign currency returns (UIP puzzle).
Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza‐Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa, 2023. "Demographics, Monetary Policy, and the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1857-1887, October.
Download journal publication or working paper
How does aging affect monetary policy? It contribites significantly to the decline of the natural rate of interest (NRI) and potential output growth, and exacerbates the risk of hitting the zero lower bound (ZLB). If the central bank updates its estimates of the NRI only with some lag (learning process), aging may additionally lead to a sizable and persistent deflationary bias, elevating the ZLB risk even further.
Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa, 2022. "Intergenerational Redistributive Effects of Monetary Policy" Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 549-580. Download journal publication
How does monetary policy affect welfare accross generations? We find that a typical monetary policy easing redistributes welfare from older to younger households, and decreases net worth inequality associated with lifecycle motives. The redistribution is mainly driven by nominal assets (bonds, deposits) and labor income, less by real financial assets (stocks) and housing.
Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2023. "The great lockdown: information, noise, and macroeconomic fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 906-927, June.
Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa & Krzysztof Makarski, 2022. "Monetary Policy and COVID-19," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 41-80, March.
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski, 2021. "International confidence spillovers and business cycles in small open economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 773-798, August.
Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kotłowski, Jacek, 2020. "The Nonlinear Nature Of Country Risk And Its Implications For Dsge Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 601-628, April.
Bielecki, Marcin & Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin, 2020. "Demographics and the natural interest rate in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
Kristina Bluwstein & Michał Brzoza‐Brzezina & Paolo Gelain & Marcin Kolasa, 2020. "Multiperiod Loans, Occasionally Binding Constraints, and Monetary Policy: A Quantitative Evaluation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1691-1718, October.
Bielecki, Marcin & Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin, 2019. "Comment on “The limits of forward guidance” by Jeffrey R. Campbell, Filippo Ferroni, Jonas D. M. Fisher and Leonardo Melosi," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 135-139.
Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2017. "Monetary and macroprudential policy with foreign currency loans," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 352-372.
Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2015. "Macroprudential policy and imbalances in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 137-154.
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa & Grzegorz Koloch & Krzysztof Makarski & Michał Rubaszek, 2013. "Monetary Policy In A Non-Representative Agent Economy: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 641-669, September.
Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2013. "The anatomy of standard DSGE models with financial frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 32-51.
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa, 2013. "Bayesian Evaluation of DSGE Models with Financial Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(8), pages 1451-1476, December.
Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2011. "Credit crunch in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1406-1428.
Page updated
Google Sites
Report abuse