Constituency Analysis
Lewisham East
People's Vote rolled out constituency "heat maps" in 2019 to show where the pro-European sentiment was likely to be located.
However sophisticated the underlying data analysis, the output was only capable of giving a first crude guide: here's the heat map for Lewisham East, with a close up of the very top left area.
Later this was complemented with a "turf cutting tool" on the People's Vote portal, now closed. It was for each group to use the tool to prepare leafleting walks. The image below is an output showing the area covered in the top right of the detail picture above. Other examples can be seen in the Blackheath ward voting district maps linked from here.
What UKPEN is now able to offer local groups is the Anthony ("Andy") Watkin "Barcelona method". This uses census output areas and categorises them according to a methodology which AW, a Brexit exile in Barcelona, explains here. For a reasonable fee, UKPEN can commission from Andy a constituency-wide analysis for any constituency in England and Wales, with content including the following elements:
A constituency map with breakdown like this for Lewisham East:
"At an Output Area level, the percentage Pro EU varies from 100% to 33%, with the North of the constituency having the greatest Pro EU percentages. The following map shows the levels categorised into Green (81% to 100%), Amber (70% to 80%) and Red (<70%) (RAG Categorisation).
The RAG categorisation is intended to aid interpretation of the results and to simplify targeting of areas most likely to be responsive to pro EU canvassing. "
Compared to the heat map approach we think that pre-defined areas are easier to handle for local groups, and compared to the turf-cutting tool we think that this lends itself better to a detailed action plan for leafleting and doorstepping.
Also provided is an accessible demographic classification sub area by sub area like this:
The sub-groups in the column on the left are all explained in the document already mentioned here. A spreadsheet contains all the classification data sub-area by sub area, and provides the postcodes.
An example of the information also provided ward by ward is given below for Blackheath ward.
If local groups are going to use this period to get organised to fight for us to rejoin the EU, we believe that building up constituency knowledge in this way is a vital element. Now is the time to put in the preparatory work. Your group probably has somebody who would relish doing this and UKPEN stands ready to help you. Contact ukproeurnet@ukpen.eu to get in touch with us about this.