Assistant Professor in Macroeconomics, the University of Birmingham.
Fields: Belief and Opinion Formation, Behavioural Macro, Comparative Politics
Email: LiTang[dot]Econ@gmail[dot]com
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Working Papers
Working Papers
Belief Disagreement, Instability, and Uncertainty under Stochastic Recall (with Pei Kuang and Michael Weber) [PDF]
Information Treatments, Hypotheticals, and Event Studies: Comparative Estimates (with Carola Binder, Dimitris Georgarakos and Pei Kuang) [NBER WP]
Polarization and Belief Entrenchment Through Memory (with Pei Kuang and Michael Weber)
Net Zero and Inflation Expectations: the Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policies (with Pei Kuang, Yao Yao, and Yuteng Zhang) [PDF]
Focusing on What Matters: Information Relevance and Macroeconomic Expectations (with Shihan Xie and Penghui Yin)
Output Gap Estimation and Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge (with Pei Kuang and Kaushik Mitra) [PDF]
Politics and Business
Politics and Business
Generative AI and the Labor Market: Workers’ Beliefs and Behavioral Responses (with Marian Rizov and Xufei Zhang) [PDF] reject and resubmit, Research Policy
Folk Theories about Political Conflict (with Slava Jankin and Yen-Chieh Liao)
Knocking on the Wrong Door: Partisan Canvassing and Asymmetric Belief Updating in Britain (with Yen-Chieh Liao)
Publications
Publications
Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations (with Carola Binder and Pei Kuang) [NBER WP(31232)] Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 24, Issue 2, Pages 769–799, April 2026. Coverage: [Central banking]
Electoral Reform and Geographically-Targeted Oversight: Evidence from Taiwan Legislative Yuan (with Yen-Chieh Liao) Electoral Studies, Volume 99, February 2026, 103026.
Macroprudential Policy and Housing Market Expectations (with Pei Kuang, Kaushik Mitra and Shihan Xie) European Economic Review, Volume 181, January 2026, 105191. Coverage: [Irish Central Bank]
Navigating Fiscal Fog: Household Expectations in an Uncertain Fiscal Environment (with Junjie Guo, Shihan Xie and Penghui Yin) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Volume 240, December 2025, 107321.
(Mis)perception of Party Congruence and Satisfaction with Democracy (with Royce Carroll and Yen-Chieh Liao) Political Science Research and Methods, Volume 13, Issue 4, Page 885-902, 2025
Are Stock Price Forecasts Anchored by Fundamental Forecasts? A Long-run Perspective (with Pei Kuang, Renbin Zhang and Tongbin Zhang) Economic Theory, Volume 79, Pages 657–685, 2025.
Worker Productivity During Covid-19 and Adaptation to Working From Home (with Ashley Burdett, Ben Etheridge, and Yikai Wang) European Economic Review, Volume 167, August 2024, 104788. Coverage: [ISER] [CEPR]
Forecast Disagreement about Long-run Macroeconomic Relationships (with Pei Kuang, Renbin Zhang and Tongbin Zhang) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Volume 200, August 2022, Pages 371-387.
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