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First, what is a MDU?
MDU means multi-dwelling unit. MDU (also known as Multifamily Residential) is a housing classification where multiple separate housing units for residential inhabitants are contained within one building or several buildings within one complex. These units include apartments and condominiums. It's a term used in the real estate industry. Below is a new construction example of an MDU that was featured in the Boston Globe in February 2024.
Boston Globe Home of the Week:
"A New Roxbury Duplex: Design with Purpose"
Marketed as "New Modern Duplexes" - 6 Burton Ave, Roxbury
(priced $990K for 2200 sq ft, 3 Bed, 2.5 Bath, a parking space, permits to add a roof deck, and a basement with high ceilings)
Absolutely nothing in Lincoln's Zoning Bylaws or Site Guidelines would prevent a larger version of the above example from being constructed in Article 3's (aka Option C) Codman Road District in Lincoln.
And there will be MANY of them. Even the smallest parcels in Codman (around 1 acre) can support 4 of these structures
Additionally, these MDU's in Lincoln will be expensive due to the high land acquisition costs and hard construction costs noted by Boston Globe Spotlight — likely north of $1.1M in Lincoln.
America the Bland ...
Buildings in Codman Rd District will be 3 stories of multi-family (not 5 over 1 per this TikTok) however it's safe to assume a developer/builder (like any business) will look to maximize their profits by building in this way. Our Site Guidelines can't deny a project based on quality or design especially on an HCA parcel! An HCA parcel (even if its plans are for "bland" architecture) will have the full weight of the HCA law behind it, making it challenging to deny development for fear of bad press or a lawsuit from a housing advocacy organization.
Case Study: Feasibility for MDU on a Codman Rd. Sub-district Parcel
Owner: Andrea Doherty Dwyer
168 Lincoln Rd in the Codman Rd Sub-district
Not asked about proposed zoning
"I may be forced to sell if my property becomes more difficult to rent due to major neighborhood demolition and construction. I also believe that this type of dense development will ruin the fabric of the neighborhood"
-- Andrea Doherty Dwyer
MDUs (Multi-dwelling Units) - Vision vs Reality
Architects are not just designers, they are also artists and salespeople. They need to sell their vision in order to convince people to move forward with their projects.
With the permission of the owner of 168 Lincoln Rd, who was zoned into Article 3 (aka Option) without being asked, the following page will demonstrate not just the physical feasibility of putting these units onto a single parcel but also the economic likelihood that these parcels will be developed.
This will change the Lincoln Road and Codman Road area forever, converting it from a mix of middle-income single-family homes with mature trees into a generic McCondo- or McTownhouse-land in the next 10 - 20 years. The could very well be smaller versions of the "America the Bland" as pointed out in the above TikTok and the NYTimes.
Below are two buildable scenarios for this parcel based on the proposed Option's guidelines and the currently proposed Zoning Bylaws and Design Guidelines.
Option 1: Townhouses (like the above). This sketch shows four (4) 2-unit townhouse buildings but in fact seven (7), 2-unit townhouse buildings could be squeezed onto this parcel with this HCA zoning!
Buildings (Orange) and leach field (Green) in right hand sketch. Left sketch represents the Lot Area and Buildable area of 168 Lincoln Rd
Option 2: Single Condo Building This sketch shows 1 large condo building with 12 units. This is more likely due to cost efficiency for the developer.
Buildings (Orange) and leach field (Green) in right hand sketch. Left sketch represents the Lot Area and Buildable area of 168 Lincoln Rd
Given the number of units, proper accommodations (e.g. elevators, ramps) for residents with disabilities would be incorporated.
Grey Area = Lot Area (approx)
Blue Area = Buildable based on setbacks
Orange Blocks = Buildings
Green Area = Leach Field
What about the Wastewater (e.g. Septic)?
Massachusetts allows up to 10,000 gallons per day from residential buildings under Title 5 for passive septic systems. Assuming an average 110 gpd per bedroom (standard), a developer can propose a 44-unit 2-bedroom condominium (88 bedroom x 110 gpd/bedroom = 9,680 gpd) with an appropriately sized passive septic system. Actual average flows from condo buildings is generally in the 70-80 gpd range.
https://www.mhp.net/assets/resources/documents/sewer_rules_housing_supply.pdf
So even combined parcels of 4 acres in Codman could support 40 units (10 u/a) and still use a totally passive septic system assuming soils testing passes.
In the event a developer is proposing over 10K gallons per day (~45 units), Massachusetts has approved innovative wastewater systems from 20+ manufacturers with their myriad of sizing/cost options. Please explore the link below to see a list of these Approved I/A (Innovative/Alternative) technologies.
The effect of these innovative systems is to dramatically reduce the size footprint of a leach field required to process the typical estimated gallons per day per bedroom. This is keenly demonstrated at Cold Brook Crossing in Sudbury of 117 where the footprint of the leach field for 274 units is about the size of a soccer field! The processing system is in a building but could also be buried. And as you'll see below the costs for these systems per bedroom is actually LOWER than a traditional septic system.
See Red Box in the image below.
It has been noted as well that the cost per bedroom of a passive septic system actually cost MORE than a wastewater treatment facility. So basically, construction costs for septic/wastewater are a non-issue for a developer.
Construction cost for septic (on-site sewage)
Construction costs for wastewater treatment
Will the current property owners have a financial incentive to sell?
Yes.
Using basic math with reasonable assumptions (gathered from the Boston Globe Spotlight article *) and sales price estimates from local real estate agents, it is clear that selling to a developer will be a financial windfall for the current property owners.
Reasonable estimates of the premium a property owner can expect to receive with this zoning are 2x the price selling as a Single Family (see Zillow info to the right). And as suggested by Andrea @ 168 Lincoln Rd, the pressure to sell will go up and up once the development begins.
For questions on the financial estimates, please contact robahlert@gmail.com
* No Subscription? No Problem! Get access here through the Lincoln Public Library's online periodical portal.
168 Lincoln Rd, Lincoln MA 01773 | Zillow
168 Lincoln Rd, Lincoln MA is a Single Family home that contains 2155 sq ft and was built in 1949. It contains 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $1,060,900, which has decreased by $924 in the last 30 days. The Rent Zestimate for this Single Family is $3949/mo, which has increased by $350/mo in the last 30 days.
How Do You Know?
The following simple calculator uses inputs (e.g. Zoning Units, # of proposed units, # of cars per units, etc) and calculates these measures:
Feasibility - will the proposed units physically fit including the leach field requirements?
Building Footprint
Parking Footprint (Above Ground or Under)
Additional Paving
Lot Coverage
Leach Field Footprint
Leach Field Feasibility
Pricing - will the economics be favorable to both the property owner and the developer to make this a likely project to happen with this zoning?
Price Premium for Property Owner
Land, Hard, and Soft Building Costs
Financing (Debt, Equity Investment)
Gross Profit Margin
ROI on the Project
Deviation Check of Costs vs Boston Globe Benchmark
% Land Acquisition Costs
% Hard Costs
% Soft Costs
Note: Model structure and assumptions confirmed from discussions and communications with large developers. Added Financing component to model after feedback from Planning Board Member.
Boston Globe Spotlight Article Cost Calculation Assumptions (including 6% profit margin for developer):
#1 Land: proximity to transit
#2 Type of Labor: Union Labor
#3 Amount of Parking: 1 space per Unit
#4 Green Energy: Yes, required
#5: Affordable Housing: 10%
How to identify the best parcels?
The measure of the value of a parcel from a developer's perspective is "bang for your buck" (below as Max Units:$/Developable Acre Ratio on far right in table). What is the cheapest parcel with the most developable land that I can buy that will give me the most units?
In addition to this, we can use our estimated $/acre sale price and current use $ value to figure out which parcels will sell at a premium over their current use.
Of the 20 parcels in the Codman Rd (10 upa) and Lewis St (11 upa), we can see that over 50% of the acreage would likely be converted under today's market conditions.
Key Takeaways
The North side of Lewis St (i.e. Food Project, Pickle Factory) is not that attractive for re-development due to the low acreage. It would have be combined to create anything meaningful
The parcels on Lincoln Rd and Codman corner would be the first to receive offers. They have the highest ratio of max units : $/acre ratio.
The DPW is completely dry and would be the most interesting for a development if 2/3 town vote wasn't required to sell it. The town could expect $5M plus for that parcel.
The zoning proposed under Warrant 3 (Option C) is going to create a 'scattered' effect rather than well-planned cohesive development. Perhaps converting SFH to Multi-family is not the best path forward.
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