Counting Playing Tricks

Estimating the number of Playing Tricks

Question: when do you use it?

Answer: It is most useful when you have a strong hand, and have reason to believe your partner doesn't have much in hand, it is sometimes useful to count Playing Tricks as a secondary hand evaluation.

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EDIT : "Playing Tricks" apply to trump contracts too, in case you are mislead by the article below which talks about balanced hands.

Consider the following 2 (balanced) hands.

Hand A. 22HCP and balanced

Hand B. Also 22HCP and balanced

Intuitively, if we assume that your partner has practically no HCP, hand B is stronger than hand A. Hand A has a lot of "holes" and is completely balanced with no suit more than 4 cards.

If you can estimate the number of playing tricks, it may help in a more structured manner.

Here's how you try to estimate it.

Assume that all 3 other players are split roughly evenly in each of the suits. .
Now count the sure tricks you think you can make.
For other honors ("non-sure" tricks), estimate the fraction of a trick you think they will make on average.

The number of tricks you end up with is an estimate of how many tricks you might take if partner cannot help you much. Let's try it with Hand A and B. I will produce a picture of how the hands might be visualised for this purpose.

You might wander what if opponents have an unbalanced suit combination? Well, then you are out of luck. Remember that counting playing tricks is just a way to assess your hand quickly, it is not a gaurantee. You have also assumed that your partner has 0 HCP (which is a counter balance).

Hand A. if your partner cannot help with you with any HCP, you might assign playing tricks as follows:

Spades: 1
Hearts : 1.25 (the J is unlikely to win a trick, but might if KQ is on your right)
Diamonds : 1.5 (the J10 sequence makes it a bit more likely to have 0.5 trick. You can think of the J10 as equal to a Q)
Clubs: 2.5 (the J will win a trick provided the Q is on the right, and not if the Q is on the left)

Total : 6.25 (don't worry, you will get faster at this if you practice)

Hand B. This is still 22HCP, but the playing trick estimate is different

Spades: 1.25
Hearts : 1
Diamonds : 5 (because once your AKQ is used, the rest of the tricks are yours).
Clubs : 1

Total : 8.25. This is roughly 2 tricks more than hand A.

Relatively speaking, hand B is stronger than hand A even with the same HCP. If you are thinking of playing in 3NT, or even slam (after considering the bidding), hand B is more likely.

Some general guidelines

Your non-honors will win tricks if the suit is long enough.
for non-sure tricks, assign a trick count that is an average. Generally
1. a AQ combination is 1.5 tricks (50% chance of the Q winning a trick)
2. a KQJ combination is 2 tricks (once you lose to the A, QJ are sure tricks)
3. AJ10 combination is 1.5 tricks (the J10 can count as similar to a AQ)
4. AJ combination is 1.25 tricks (KQ on your right, KQ on the left, either side K or Q. Technically its 1/3 but 0.25 is easier).
5. A Kx, Qx, or Jx doubleton combination by itself would probably be better to count as 0, though the Kx has a better chance.

More examples

This time, I will not display a visualization of the other hands. Just look at your hand only and see if you agree with me. if not, leave me a comment.

Hand C

Hand D

Hand E

Hand F

Hand G.

Answers

Hand C. Spades: 0, Hearts: 5, Clubs : 2, Diamonds : 2. Total 9.

Hand D. Spades: 0, Hearts: 2, Clubs : 7, Diamonds : 0. Total 9.

Hand E. Spades: 0, Hearts: 4, Clubs : 0, Diamonds : 5.5. Total 10.5 (but see caution below)

Hand F. Spades: 5, Hearts: 0, Clubs : 4, Diamonds : 0. Total 9 (but see caution below)

Hand G. Spades: 1, Hearts 6: , Clubs : 0.5, Diamonds : 1.5. Total 9
(note the heart suit counts as 6 playing tricks even though its only AJ. Due to the length of the suit, opponents are assumed to have 2 cards each only, so they only "win" one trick)

Caution

If you have a 2 suited hand, like Hand E or F, please be aware that it can go badly wrong if you don't have a decent fit in spades or clubs. Playing tricks assumes an even distribution, but that gets more unlikely when there are more combinations of distributions possible.

For example, for hand E, I said there were 4 playing tricks in hearts. However, there are only 4 hearts, so 3 other players have 9 hearts. Assuming an even distribution, then each player has 3 and the AKQ is enough to use up all outstanding cards. However, with 9 cards, the number of combinations are much more : 3-3-3, 3-4-2, 3-5-1, 2-2-5 and so on. So the assumption is less likely to stand.

Conclusion

When you have a strong hand, and are thinking of bidding aggressively for game or slam, please use the estimate of "Playing tricks" to confirm that your hand is truly strong as HCP isn't always enough. In trump contracts, there is an assumption of a trump fit - which is likely with a strong one suiter, but less likely with 2 5 suiters, so please take your evaluation accordingly to the actual bidding.

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