Package 2

BridgeMaster level 2 deal D30.

Keypoints
You should make it a habit to identify the danger. This is especially true when the contract appears easily makable.  I also introduce "Loser on loser". Another aspect is managing your entries after counting how many finesses you need to do.

Questions
Before you play anything, please answer the following questions.

1. Prelim assessment of situation

2. How many likely losers does South have on a prelim inspection

3. What is the possible danger here?

4. How do you mitigate the danger?

Answer

Prelim assessment of situation

East has bid 1NT (15-17HCP). NS has 23HCP total. Its safe to say that East likely has nearly all the honors in the EW pair.  For clubs, it is almost certain East has AQ in clubs.

How many likely losers does South have on a prelim inspection

1 in spades, 2 in clubs. 2 in clubs (and not 3) because you will be relying on finessing for the AQ of clubs (which is almost certain to be in East) from dummy. On a prelim inspection it looks like you will easily make.

Please note that when counting "likely losers", you usually count likely losers from the hand with the most trumps. In the case of a 4-4 fit, you count from your hand as its more convenient. You also usually assume a average distribution at first (but adding information from the bidding ). Any danger coming from a bad split will come from a "danger" assessment.

What is the possible danger here?

The only possible danger is that East has 4 spades - AT84. So the assessment of one loser in spades could be wrong. Even with 3-1 in spades, can still make.

How do you mitigate the danger? (this is the hardest question to answer)

You first play one round of spades (leading from hand to dummy J) to determine if its a 4-0 split. If it isn't a 4-0 split, then no problem, you will easily make your contract. Draw out remaining trumps first then finesse for the AQ of clubs by playing leads from dummy. 

If it turns out to be a 4-0 split, you will have an additional loser in spade to make 4. Unless.... 

You exchange a loser for another loser and preserve your trumps.  This is called a loser on loser tactic.

After you lose the JS to the AS, East is likely to lead H again (if E leads clubs, situation still the same. If E lead spades, good for you. if E leads diamonds, situation still the same - H is the best lead). What East has in spades after winning with the AS : T84. So when you do finesse the spade suit later, please start with the 9S from dummy - when you win the opponent's TS with the KQ, a later finesse with the Q7 against opponent's 84 is possible.

Instead of ruffing it, you discard a club loser. You originally had 2 club losers, now you have just one. If you had ruffed the H lead,  you would not have enough trumps to make it to the end and still be able to stop opponents further H leads.

You should also make sure you have enough entries in dummy to keep going up to finesse in spades and in clubs (3 times). So win the first diamond trick with the TD or you end up blocking yourself.