Dr Larissa Marioni

Working papers

Using New Sources of Data to Understand Skill Demand and Supply: A Regional Analysis

(with Augustin de Coulon, Mary O'Mahony, Patrick Serberis and Francesco Venturini)

Abstract: This paper proposes a new approach to quantifying digital skill demand and supply using new sources of data, focusing on regions of the UK. This is based on measuring the flows of new hires relative to the supply coming from education. We use job platform data to measure demand and administrative data to measure the supply side. The analysis of demand shows a concentration of the highest level digital skills required for innovation in regions around London known as the Golden Triangle, but skills required for "business as usual" are important everywhere and growing over time. Areas outside the Golden Triangle, especially in the second-tier cities, appear more willing to hire non-graduates to fill their needs. On the supply side, the research shows significant diversity in the extent to which the education system generates the skills for adopting and using digital technologies, with the Golden Triangle again dominating.

We don't need no (over)education

(with Michela Vecchi and Robyn W. Smith)

Abstract: We provide new evidence on the labour market outcomes of overeducated graduates in the UK over the 2017-2020 period, with a focus on skill heterogeneity. Using the Annual Population Survey, we find that, on average, 27% of graduates are overeducated, and this proportion has decreased slightly over time. Netting out those with a foreign qualification reduces the extent of overeducation to 19%. Graduates employed in low-skilled occupations (overeducated but not overskilled) account for approximately 13% of total overeducation, while the proportion of graduates in high-skilled occupations (skill mismatched) is 8%. Wages differ substantially between truly skill mismatched and overeducated (only) graduates. Improving graduates' skills and achieving a better match between foreign qualifications and occupations could lead to a more efficient use of graduates' talents.

Driving productivity: The impact of transport connectivity in the UK

Abstract: This paper aims to examine the effects of autonomous vehicles on transport connectivity metrics and their subsequent impact on the productivity of firms across various regions in the UK. Initially, this study assesses the effects of existing connectivity measures on productivity. Then, it attempts to quantify the potential impact of autonomous vehicles on these transport connectivity measures. Finally, it estimates the resulting change in productivity based on these new connectivity metrics. Investigating these questions empirically poses a formidable challenge due to endogeneity issues arising from time-invariant unobservable components or target transport policies and the problem of reverse causality. To deal with this obstacle this paper implements a first-difference model with instrumental variables (FD-IV). Most previous studies have addressed these endogeneity issues individually, but only a few dealt with them together.

Towards a fairer taxation system: the distributional effects of implementing a progressive consumption tax in the UK

(with Arnab Bhattacharjee and Adrian Pabst)

Abstract: This paper investigates the distributional effects of introducing a progressive consumption tax in the UK. We model three different scenarios: (i) replacing indirect consumption taxes with a flat-rate direct consumption tax; (ii) replacing indirect consumption and direct income taxes with a flat-rate direct consumption tax; and (iii) replacing indirect consumption and direct income taxes with a progressive direct consumption tax. The results suggest that a direct progressive consumption tax has several advantages compared to alternative tax systems. One advantage is that it supports higher consumption early in life when households tend to have lower incomes but higher needs. The second is that it allows greater flexibility between labour and leisure at the start of working life and before retirement. Finally, it also allows households at the bottom of the income distribution to respond to savings incentives and increase their wealth. Overall, the findings point out how the progressivity of taxation is crucial for lowering inequality and increasing fairness.

Internal migration driven by violence shocks and its effects on job transitions

Abstract: This paper studies the labour market impact of internal migration in Brazil by instrumenting migration with violent crime shocks at the origin state. I find that people are more likely to move away from their origin state after positive shocks in violent crimes. Moreover, without controlling for self-selection, migrants are positively selected, and earn more than non-migrants. Conversely, after controlling for self-selection, I find that on average, migrants are negatively selected, and earn less than non-migrants. The effect is more pronounced on men and low-educated workers. In addition, I find that migrants coming from richer states are more positively selected than migrants coming from poorer states. Thus, these results may indicate forced migration only for poorer origin states.

Characteristics of Venezuelan migration to Brazil: General aspects and integration into the labour market

(with Fillipe Guedes, Carlos Henrique Leite Corseuil and Ricardo da Silva Freguglia)

Abstract: This paper investigates the assimilation of Venezuelan migrants into the Brazilian labour market, focusing on firm-level responses to a significant exogenous increase in labour supply. Using administrative data from various sources, this study offers a comprehensive characterisation of this migration flow, shedding light on lesser-known aspects of Venezuelan migration to Brazil. The findings show that firms with pre-existing networks of foreign workers and those close to networks providing access to the country of origin were more likely to hire Venezuelans during the peak flow of migrants (2016-2018). On average, firms that absorbed these workers were larger, less productive, and primarily employed lower-skilled workers. Regarding the occupations for which migrants are hired, results show that these roles are low-skilled, with lower hierarchical levels, and a smaller observed wage compared to their potential predicted wage. Overall, the results suggest that Venezuelan migrants have predominantly been integrated into lower-quality jobs within less productive firms, offering valuable insights into the economic integration challenges faced by displaced populations.

Work in progress

Understanding Local Level Skill Mismatches (with Mary O'Mahony and Augustin de Coulon). Funded by The Productivity Institute (TPI).
Do peers affect student achievement? Evidence from Brazil (with Filipe Rodrigues Vianna and Ricardo da Silva Freguglia).