Data-driven-economics

• • Friday 4:00PM-7:00PM: Room VI (Statistics Building, Piazzale Aldo Moro 5) or Aula VI - Sc. Stat. - Giurisprudenza; Scienze politiche e Scienze statistiche; Ingegneria dell'informazione, informatica e statistica, Piazzale Aldo Moro 5

• Office hours: after the lecture or by appointment (please send me an e-mail)

Announcements

• The introductory lecture will be given online next week (between March 23 and March 27). I will send the link to all students who sent me an email or who recorded their names and emails at the Google Drive Excel file you can find at the following link https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XZ6X7W3tqCXzWBJ7-QFqbSVy_hxQv_eRSxZUDONHhNk/edit?usp=sharing

  • No lecture on April 24. We will meet again next week. I will send you all an email for the details

Syllabus 

(link to pdf file):

Lectures: (posted at the end of each lecture)

• 1. Lecture 1: Introduction to the course. April 3, 2020 at 4:30PM. Zoom link: https://us04web.zoom.us/j/625683810?pwd=Yk9obElmSGx4d3RBQXNnVFRFK1lQQT09 (I have already sent a password to all the students who signed up. If you are not in that list, please email me for the password!). You can reach the Zoom platform by digitizing zoom.us on your browser or by inserting the meeting ID 625683810 followed by the password.

  2. Lecture 2: April 17, 2020 at 5:00PM. Zoom link: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84028729722 (I have already sent a password to all the students who signed up. If you are not in that list, please email me for the password!). You can reach the Zoom platform by digitizing zoom.us on your browser or by inserting the meeting ID 840 2872 9722 followed by the password.

  3. Lecture 3: (Video link) (Audio link) May 15, 2020 at 4:30PM. Zoom Meeting ID: 926 559 9307. I have sent you the password. If you did not get it, please email me. We are going to see some time series analysis and discuss the paper by Ardizzi G., Emiliozzi. S., Marcucci J., and Monteforte L., "News and Consumer Card Payments"(2019), Bank of Italy Working Paper n. 1233. Link to paper

  4. Lecture 4: (Video link) (Audio link) May 22, 2020 at 4:00PM. Zoom Meeting ID 926 559 9307.  I have sent you the password. If you did not get it, please email me. Here are some papers we referred to: France: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3588373

     1. Spain:http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe2030.pdf

     2. USA: https://www.nber.org/papers/w26949

     3. UK: https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14733

     4. Denmark & Sweden: https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14809

     5. Sweden: https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.04630

     6. China: https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/Qian_COVID-Consumption-200414.pdf

  5. Lecture 5: (Video link) (Audio link) May 29, 2020 at 4:00PM. Zoom Meeting ID 926 559 9307.  I have sent you the password. If you did not get it, please email me.

  6. Lecture 6: Please listen to this wonderful seminar that Raj Chetty (Harvard University) gave some days ago at Princeton (you can find it here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ip5pz7gOSwI) which should give you an idea of a data-driven economic analysis during Covid-19 lockdown in the US. The literature is evolving fast. You can also check the huge data set that Raj and co-authors gathered for the US at the link https://tracktherecovery.org/

Empirical project for the presentation

• 1. Empirical project: follow the instruction in this slides for the empirical project and the final presentation. 

References (to be read)

• 1. Bholat D., S. Hansen, P. Santos and C. Schonhardt-Baileyet (2015) Text Mining For Central Banks 

  2. Hansen S., M. McMahon and A. Prat, (2016) "Transparency and Deliberation Within the FOMC: A Computational Linguistics Approach", Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 133, Issue 2, May 2018, Pages 801–870,https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx045

1. Thorsrud, Leif A., (2018), Words are the New Numbers: A Newsy Coincident Index of the Business Cycle, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2018.1506344

2. Thorsrud, Leif A., (2018), Words are the New Numbers: A Newsy Coincident Index of the Business Cycle - Online Appendix, https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.6949502.v1

3. Tetlock, Paul C., (2007), Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market, The Journal of Finance, 62(3), p. 1139-1168, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01232.x.

4. D'Amuri, F. and Marcucci, J. (2017), The Predictive Power of Google Searches in Forecasting US Unemploymnet, International Journal of Forecasting, 33(4), p. 801-816, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.03.004

   1. References to payment card data applications:

   2. France: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3588373

   3. Spain:http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe2030.pdf

   4. USA: https://www.nber.org/papers/w26949

   5. UK: https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14733

   6. Denmark & Sweden: https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14809

   7. Sweden: https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.04630 

   8. China: https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/Qian_COVID-Consumption-200414.pdf

   9. Blumentstock Joshua E., (2018), "Estimating Economic Characteristic with Phone Data", American Economic Association Papers & Proceedings (AEA P&P), https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20181033

   10. Toole J.L., Lin Y.R., Muehlegger E., Shoag D., Gonzalez M.C., and Lazer D., (2015), "Tracking Employment Shocks Using Mobile Phone Data", Journal of the Royal Social Interface, http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2015.0185