PUBLICATIONS
Migration and the epidemiological approach: time and self-selection into foreign ancestries matter, joint with Simone Bertoli, Melchior Clerc & Èric Roca Fernández - Journal of Development Economics (2025) [NEW!]
Abstract: The epidemiological approach in comparative development uses data on individuals of immigrant origin to study cultural persistence, the determinants of cultural norms, and the effects of genetic traits. A common assumption of this methodology is its susceptibility to attenuation bias. We challenge it by demonstrating how the increasing reliance on foreign ancestries to identify respondents’ origins can introduce confounding biases. Specifically, self-selection in reporting foreign ancestry and unobserved variation in ancestral migration timing may lead to inflated estimates. We formalize these mechanisms through a theoretical framework and illustrate their empirical significance by reassessing key findings from influential studies by Fernández and Fogli (2006) and Giuliano and Nunn (2021).
Published Paper: Link
Online Appendix: Link
Replication files: Link
Working Paper: Link
Policy Brief: PSE Policy Brief
Understanding cultural persistence and change: A replication of Giuliano and Nunn (2021), joint with Simone Bertoli, Melchior Clerc & Èric Roca Fernández - Economic Inquiry (2024) [This replication exercise induced the Review of Economic Studies to publish a correction of the original article in October 2023 (see Corrigendum).]
Abstract: Giuliano and Nunn (2021) provide econometric evidence that ancestral climatic variability reduces the current importance of tradition. We conduct a deep reproduction, comparing the precise descriptions of the individual level regressions in their article with the corresponding code. This analysis uncovers several major inconsistencies, also related to the code not included in their replication package. A published corrigendum addresses some inconsistencies we had also communicated to the Editor of REStud, but several remain, relating to a substantial portion of the observations. A realignment of the code with the text reveals a more nuanced relationship between ancestral climatic variability and tradition.
Published Paper: Link
Online Appendix: Link
Replication files: Link
Working Paper: Link
Popular writing: CERDI "Zoom sur la recherche"
WORKING PAPERS
Connecting the Unconnected: Facebook Access and Female Political Representation in Sub-Saharan Africa, joint with Sophie Hatte & Thomas Taylor (Working Paper, 2025) - Submitted [UPDATED!]
Abstract: Can social media help promote female access to political positions? Using data from 8,814 parliamentary races across 17 sub-Saharan African countries, we study this question in a context of persistent underrepresentation of women and rising Facebook penetration. Leveraging the staggered introduction of Facebook’s Free Basics, i.e., free access to the platform via partner mobile operators, we find that its introduction significantly increases the election of female candidates, though only after one electoral cycle. The delayed effect reflects a gradual process: initially, male candidates endorsed by parliamentary parties experience declining electoral margins, followed in subsequent elections by greater endorsement and electoral success of female challengers. These dynamics suggest strategic learning by political parties, particularly in supporting first-time female candidates. To uncover mechanisms, we analyze how Free Basics access and social media usage influences political attitudes and social norms. We find that access to Free Basics fosters more egalitarian gender norms, especially regarding women in politics, reflected more strongly in online than offline environments. These changes are not simply a byproduct of broader political dissatisfaction or a generalized demand for political renewal. Importantly, the effect is strongest in contexts where access to Facebook connects users to more diverse online networks with greater female leadership representation.
C.E.P.R. Discussion Paper No. 20116: Link
C.E.P.R. VoxEU Column: Link
Podcast summary (generated by AI Google NotebookLM): Link
Youtube Video: "Le Connecteur"
Climate Regulation and Civil Society Activism, joint with Michela Limardi & Alexandre Volle (Working Paper, 2025) - Submitted [UPDATED!]
Abstract: This paper investigates how public climate regulation shapes NGO activism against firms, providing new empirical evidence on the interaction between formal state action and civil society oversight. Leveraging novel monthly panel data on NGO campaigns across 75 countries from 2010 to 2022, and exploiting variation in the timing of climate regulation enactment, we find that public regulation significantly increases the likelihood of firm-targeted NGO activism. We explore two mechanisms underpinning this effect: a salience mechanism, whereby regulation elevates the visibility and urgency of climate issues; and a complementarity mechanism, through which regulation strengthens the institutional and informational environment enabling NGO monitoring. In contrast to the conventional view that state enforcement crowds out NGO activism, we find that it catalyzes civil society pressure, shaping corporate behavior through reputational and informal enforcement channels. These findings uncover a previously underexplored dynamic in climate governance and call for a rethinking of how the state and civil society interact to promote corporate accountability in environmental policy.
Working Paper: Link
Women’s Position in Ancestral Societies and Female HIV: The Long-Term Effect of Matrilineality in Sub-Saharan Africa (Working Paper, 2025) - R&R at Economic Development and Cultural Change
Abstract: Can contemporary female HIV rates be traced back to women's position in ancestral societies? In matrilineal kinship organizations, lineage and inheritance are traced through female members and children integrate the kin group of their mother rather than their father. Ethnographic accounts suggest that in matrilineal kinship structures, women benefit from greater autonomy and spousal cooperation is reduced. I test the hypothesis that, by affecting women's sexual and contraceptive behaviours, ancestral matrilineality has a causal impact on the prevalence of female HIV. Using variation in ethnic groups' ancestral kinship organizations within Sub-Saharan African countries, I find that females originating from ancestrally matrilineal ethnic groups are today more likely to be infected by HIV. This finding is robust to the inclusion of subnational fixed effects, as well as a large set of cultural, historical, geographical, and environmental factors. I find consistent results using a number of alternative estimation strategies, including a geographic regression discontinuity design at ethnic boundaries and an instrumental variable strategy. Matrilineal females' riskier sexual and contraceptive behaviours constitute the main explanatory mechanisms. These results call for policies moving beyond the "one-size-fits-all" strategy and taking local cultural contexts into account.
Working Paper: Link
WORKS IN PROGRESS
Fighting Climate Change: NGO Activism and Firms’ Polluting Behaviour, joint with Michela Limardi & Alexandre Volle (Work in progress) - Early stage
Abstract: Combining a unique dataset of NGO campaigns against firms with firm-level data on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, we examine the impact of environmental activism on corporate pollution. To explore underlying mechanisms, we specifically analyze intra-sectoral dynamics among firms.
ARCHIVED WORKING PAPERS
Access to Divorce and Women's Empowerment: How Traditional Norms mitigate Legal Reforms, joint with Olivier Bargain & Roberta Ziparo (Working Paper, 2024)
Abstract: Social norms can mitigate the effectiveness of policies. We examine this question in the context of a major legal reform that exogenously fostered womens access to justice and their ability to divorce in Indonesia. We focus on the role of ethnic norms regarding post-marital cohabitation, i.e. matrilocality versus patrilocality. We theoretically establish that, compared to women of patrilocal tradition, matrilocal women should divorce relatively more after the reform and, for those in stable marriages, experience a relative increase in empowerment. We test and confirm these predictions using double- and triple-difference estimations with fixed effects. Regarding empowerment, results are consistent across a wide range of women's and children's outcomes. Triple-difference estimates show higher benefits of the reform for matrilocal women who live far from courthouses and experience a relatively stronger decrease in divorce costs. Our results encourage tailored policies that transcend cultural contexts and overcome the adherence to informal laws.
Women’s Empowerment and Husband’s Migration: Evidence from Indonesia, joint with Olivier Bargain & Roberta Ziparo (Working Paper, 2024)
Abstract: Migration is an important risk-coping mechanism for poor households in developing countries. However, migration decisions may be sub-optimal in the presence of limited commitment between spouses. In this paper, we examine the link between the distribution of power in marriage and the decision to split-migrate (one spouse migrates alone) in Indonesia. We exploit a national policy experiment that exogenously increased women's bargaining power among ethnic groups of matrilocal tradition - the couple lives with the bride's relatives - relative to patrilocal groups. The propensity of matrilocal husbands to split-migrate, relative to patrilocal husbands, increases by 2-3.4 percentage points, i.e. a rise of 41-76%, following the reform. We suggest that empowered women may have gained control ex ante over outcomes that are costlier to monitor for husbands once they migrate. Hence, empowerment restores some efficiency in migration decisions by reducing the anticipated information asymmetry and the moral hazard associated with migration. Consistently, we show that households with empowered women are more able to cushion shocks due to natural disasters and, among all households experiencing split-migration, matrilocal women are better off than their patrilocal counterparts. We provide a theoretical framework that rationalizes the intra-household mechanisms behind these intuitions.