Immigrants’ Returns Intentions and Labor Market Behavior When the Home Country is Unsafe with Teresa Freitas Monteiro
Conditionally accepted, Journal of Labor Economics. Working paper here.
Extreme Temperatures, Environmental Concerns and Green Voting with Roman Hoffmann, Raya Muttarak, Jonas Peisker, Piero Stanig
Forthcoming, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Tax Incentives and Return Migration with Giuseppe Ippedico
R&R, Review of Economics and Statistics. Latest version here.
Awards: 2024 IIPF Young Economist Award, 2024 Etta Chiuri Prize
Abstract
Brain drain is a growing concern for many countries experiencing large emigration rates of their highly educated citizens. While several European countries have designed tax schemes to attract high-skilled expatriates and foreigners, there is limited empirical evidence on the effectiveness of fiscal incentives in a context of brain drain, and on migration responses to income tax differentials beyond top earners. In this paper we investigate the effects of the Italian 2010 tax scheme (“Controesodo”), which granted a generous income tax reduction to high-skilled expatriates who relocate to Italy. Eligibility required a college degree as well as being born in 1969 or later, which creates suitable quasi-experimental conditions to identify the effect of tax incentives. Using a Diff-in-Diff strategy and administrative data on return migration, we find that eligible individuals are 27-34% more likely to move back to Italy post-reform. Additionally, using social security data from the main origin country of returnees (Germany), we uncover effects along the whole wage distribution, showing that tax-induced migration is a broader phenomenon beyond top earners. A cost-benefit analysis reveals that the net fiscal impact of the tax scheme is marginally positive by targeting young and high-skilled individuals.
Lifting Barriers to Skill Transferability: Immigrant Integration through Occupational Recognition with Silke Anger and Malte Sandner
R&R, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy. Latest version here, IZA DP, CreAM/RFBerlin DP.
Abstract
While Western countries worry about labor shortages, their institutional barriers to skill transferability prevent immigrants from fully utilizing foreign qualifications. Combining administrative and survey data in a difference-in-differences design, we show that a German reform, which lifted these barriers for non-EU immigrants, led to a 15 percent increase in the share of immigrants with a recognized foreign qualification. Consequently, non-EU immigrants' employment and wages in licensed occupations (e.g., doctors) increased respectively by 18.6 and 4 percent, narrowing the gaps with EU immigrants. Despite the inflow of non-EU immigrants in these occupations, we find no evidence of crowding out or downward wage pressure for natives.
Skills or Frills? The Effect of EU Cohesion Policies on Schools and Students
with Francesco Filippucci and Marco Leonardi
Abstract
The impact of school spending on student outcomes is an open question in the literature, with previous studies finding mixed evidence and rarely differentiating between types of spending. We study a EU funding scheme that allocated, between 2014 and 2020, more than 2 billion euros to Italian schools to realize a variety of educational projects. Combining data on individual-level standardized test scores with detailed information on projects' ranking in tenders and rollout timing, we estimate the effect of EU-funded projects on standardized test scores using RD and staggered DID designs. We find that schools marginally winning funds for education technologies increase standardized test scores, with larger investments yielding longer-lasting effects. Schools marginally winning funds for extra-curricular courses show no improvement on standardized test scores. However, focusing exclusively on participants in these courses, we find heterogenous effects on student outcomes.
Never too Early: Pathways to Immigrant Integration with Gordon Dahl, Helmut Rainer and Malte Sandner
Aggregate Shocks at Origin and the Formation of Immigrants' Preferences with Enrico Cavallotti and Teresa Freitas Monteiro
Firm Level Effects of Tax-Induced High-Skilled Migration with Giuseppe Ippedico and Giovanni Peri