Analyzing the Impact of Brexit on UK

Project Aim

• To analyze the votes of Brexit referendum
• To analyze the economic implications of Brexit
• Industry analysis of four major sectors to be affected by Brexit
• To conclude the overall effect of Brexit on UK with the strategic intent as displayed by consulting firms

Members

• Ayush Arun Singh
• Aman Kureel
• Mihir BL
• Avikal Sagar

Report

The detailed report of this project can be found here

Work Done

Sector wise analysis of four sectors were done with the intent of covering four metrics in a qualitative sense:

1. Covering the impact of Brexit on a particular sector
2. Is the effect negative or positive?
3. Most affected countries in that sector
4. Market analysis
5. Predictive measures

Demographics were studied to comprehend the variance of Leave and Vote across ethnicities, age group, regions alongside economic effects embedded in the sector-wise analysis implying the weaker currency, hampered trade relations and a probable outcome of FDI declining.

Demographics

There is no simple explanation for the Leave victory based on demographics alone, though it is clear that age, levels of education, income are all related to the likelihood of voting Leave. Beyond this, matters of identity are equally if not more strongly associated with the vote to Leave – particularly feelings of national identity and sense of change over time.

Sectors

Finance

1. Brexit disturbing to the financial services due to the lack of passporting mechanism
2. Establishing a subsidiary in a EU country to gain access to the European market
3. Weaker pound to drive inflation higher, however could be a beneficial thing for the exporters
4. Balance between forging individual relationships and post exit trade relationship with EU
5. EU would be affected and will compensate for it by reduced spending or asking other countries to fill the void created by Brexit when it comes to funding
6. Recommendations provided to the banks and the financial institutions

Dairy

1. Mainly an importer when it comes to dairy
2. Exporter of fresh milk, cream and milk powder, albeit with limited export opportunities to countries far away from UK
3. Developing countries major targets
4. UK should aim to target countries in its proximity
5. Major focus should be on sales and marketing strategies to compensate up for the deterioration of the consumer sentiment

Pharmaceutical

1. Aging population to cause increased demand for medical products
2. Despite the economy being ravaged, the pharmaceutical sector has always held up due to its inelastic demand, as expected after Brexit as well
3. Consumer confidence at an all-time low
4. Job opportunities lost by a few major companies like Pfizer and Novartis announcing to shut their plants in the UK
5. UK to potentially lose access to the EU’s R&D programs
6. Negotiation required to streamline these processes and a bilateral favourable agreement to avoid the exodus of the pharmaceutical companies from Europe

Automobile

1. Recent upturn attributed to access to an European single market
2. Supply chains are complex for automotive industry, which will further complex the entire process and make things unfavourable and costly for UK
3. Lack of sufficient labour in the industry to proliferate
4. Collaboration with small scale suppliers but capable on their own to continue the productivity after Brexit

Future Scope

Analyzing impact of COVID-19 on Brexit considering international cooperation is the need of the hour, if more data or research papers comes on the issue.