Research

Publications

Who is moving? Mobility responses to regional shocks (joint with Cem Özgüzel)
Research in Labor Economics, Volume 53A, 2026

(Published version)           (Draft)

Being young in Spain and the scars from recessions (joint with Andrés Erosa, and Matthias Kredler) 

The Economic Journal, forthcoming (Oct. 2025)

• Replication package

• Appendix  

• Short article (uc3nomics blog)

• Breve artículo en español (Blog Nada es Gratis)

The Role of Immigration in a Deep Recession 

European Economic Review, Volume 169, September 2024

(Published version)           (Draft)

Do Temporary Help Agencies Help? Employment Transitions for Low-Skilled Workers  (joint with Belén Jerez, and Raquel Carrasco) 

Labour Economics, Volume 90, October 2024

(Published version)           (Draft)

Immigration and Labour Market Flows (joint with Andri Chassamboulli, Idriss Fontaine and Pedro Gomes)

Labour Economics, Volume 86, January 2024

(Published version)           (Draft)           

The Cyclicality of Immigrant Wages and Labour Market Flows: Evidence from Spain
Economics, Volume 16, No. 1, January 2022
(Published version)           (Draft)

Undocumented Migration and Electoral Support: Evidence from Spain (with José L. Groizard)
Politics and Governance, Volume 9, No. 4, October 2021
(Published version)           (Draft)

Labour Market Flows: Accounting for the Public Sector (joint with Idriss Fontaine, Pedro Gomes and Diego Vila-Martin)
Labour Economics, Volume 62, January 2020
(Published version)           (Draft)        (Data)

Working Papers

Temporary Agency Work and Labor Misallocation (joint with Belén Jerez, and Raquel Carrasco) 

The triangular relationship between outsourced workers, intermediary employers, and user firms is theoretically underexplored. We address this gap with a two-period model of temporary agency employment in which the temp agency screens workers and rents them out to user firms, balancing current revenue maximization against the risk of future poaching. Although screening gives the agency an informational advantage that could improve assignment quality, the threat of poaching creates incentives for strategic misallocation. In particular, the agency may conceal some productive workers in low-quality assignments to preserve future rents. This distortion results in prolonged temporary spells, fewer permanent transitions, lower aggregate productivity, and inefficiently low employment due to a poaching-induced holdup problem. The interaction with the direct-hire market can also amplify the inefficiencies, particularly when search externalities are not internalized. Although in theory poaching fees can mitigate these distortions, they are typically restricted by labor laws. The model predicts that agency employment is more prevalent and misallocation more severe in lower-productivity segments. In our framework, strategic misallocation is necessary to rationalize salient patterns of employment flows and wage differentials across skill categories.

Sharing my place: the local labor market impact of the P2P technology shock (joint with José L. Groizard)

The emergence of new digital business models, often called peer-to-peer (P2P) marketplaces, is transforming the hospitality industry. While its implications go beyond the industry, our knowledge of its aggregate impact is limited. This paper examines the effects of the P2P irruption on the local labor markets in Spain between 2016 and 2020. We exploit exogenous regulatory changes in short-term rentals (STRs) across different municipalities and periods to investigate the employment outcomes and job reallocation patterns in response to the P2P technology shock. Our findings reveal a strong and positive effect of P2P activity on local employment. A 10% increase in P2P overnights leads to an increase in local employment by 8.2 workers and a reduction in unemployment by 7.6 workers. This effect is pronounced across various sectors, including services, construction, and industry, while agriculture experiences an increase in unemployment. Our analysis indicates that the employment gain from P2P STRs varies across municipalities, with smaller non-touristy areas demonstrating the most substantial employment gains. In contrast, areas with intense competition from hotels experience a diminished effect.

The Size, Socio-Economic Composition and Fiscal Implications of the Irregular Immigration in Spain

This paper estimates the total number of irregular immigrants residing in Spain from 2002 to 2019 and studies their nationality, sex, gender, and sectoral composition. Using the residual method and combining microdata sources from the Spanish Labour Force Survey and Social Security registers I find that by the end of 2019, there were around 390,000-470,000 irregular immigrants in Spain, which account for 11-13% of the total non-EU immigrants.  Irregular immigrants are younger than the regular ones, they are predominantly from South and Central America and they are concentrated in the accommodation and food activities and the activities household sector. Using the most updated wave of the EU-SILC data for Spain, I find a positive direct fiscal impact of non-EU immigration. This impact is 75% higher than for the natives' households, mainly explained by their younger age structure. Once education and health public systems are taken into account, the fiscal impact gap between the two types of households vanishes. I also find large fiscal costs associated with maintaining the irregularity status. Last, my estimates suggest that the potential positive gains from legalising the current irregular immigrants are around 3,300 euros yearly for a regularized worker.

Work in Progress

Dual labor markets, unemployment and career mobility (joint with Christopher Busch, Ludo Visschers and Eugenia González-Aguado)

The first precarious step: Labor market prospects for new entrants (joint with Andri Chassamboulli, Athanasios Geromichalos and Ioannis Kospentaris)