WHY THE DECLINE? 

When you dig into the changes a few things show up. This season JT is simply swinging less per AB, which is his lowest since 2020 [47%], is showing a flatter Attack Angle [16o in 2023 vs 12o in 2026] and has declining numbers against fastballs. Outcomes of impact show, Barrel Percentage decline from 79% in 2022 to only 7% so far this season. This has led to a drop in production across many offensive categories with the aggregation of these showing up in OPS, dropping from .820 in 2022 (11th best in NL) to currently under .650. 

Like most players when searching to find your swing or groove, JT has played around with his set up. In 2023, Realmuto’s stance was at 18o Open and this current year sits at 24o open. In addition, he has moved his feet closer together where in ’23 he was 27.7” inches apart and currently only 24.9”. This has led to influence is batted ball outcomes with his Attack Direction moving from 2o Oppo in ’23 to 2o Pull in ’26 and Tilt being 33% in ’26, was 38o in ’23.  

You may think that surely these subtle changes of only a few degrees or a couple inches wouldn’t make a big impact, well the numbers can tell a story.  Before looking at the outcomes, it is worthwhile to understand why players adjust stances. Usually this is as they might be searching for something specific in a phase of the swing, a point that they used to do that “worked”, or contact rate or outcomes are low or they are just generally trying to get back to “that feeling” when it was going well for them. When opening a stance, for most players, they may often feel like they’re not be seeing the balls as well or would like to feel “loaded” in the rear hip during the load phase, or even just to limit sway, and exaggerate/ensure there is a forward move. By bringing the feet closer together will allow them to be a little taller in their stance and generally when combined with opening the stance allows the player to control that forward move and remain good vison on the ball. You see this type of approach with taller hitters and stiffer movers, these adjustments for JT likely allowed him to achieve a couple of things he was looking for.  

As mentioned, Realmuto’s batted ball outcomes have been affected. His stance adjustments are affecting the way he moves through the swing and impacts the baseball. With his load being taller and more open, his balance seems to have resulted in him “crashing” or falling into the front side more often and completing an off balance swing. Evidence of this is his attack direction change at contact to more pull side (+4o) so far this season, meaning he is losing the barrel earlier in the swing phase and hitting the ball further in front of the plate. Along with a higher body tilt angle would show him rotationally crashing into front side causing a loss of balance and control achieving weak contact, a higher ground ball rate to the pull side of the infield and lower barrel percentage. This is also clear in his spray chart below with comparisons from ’23 v ’26 where noticeably more batted balls are on the ground to left side of infield, base hits to shallow right field largely outweigh the pull side batted balls and as mentioned earlier a lower batting average against off speed pitches.