Addressing Uncertainties
Use climate models to develop scenarios of future climate change under different emission scenarios and policy options.
Use statistical and computational methods to analyze climate data and analyze the uncertainties of different models.
Analyze geoscience data and the results from global climate models to make an evidence-based forecast of the current rate of global or regional climate change and associated future impacts on Earth's systems.
This was one of my favorite activities this year and I wish I had a chance to cover it in more depth. Because a main argument of climate-movement-opposers is that predictions about the future state of the Earth are incorrect, and because I hear these opinions all around me in my home and on social media, I wanted to better understand how valid these models are. By showing the mechanisms of the modeler in comparison to previous models, and by comparing their hindcasts to the actual climate data observed, it become evident to me that the forecasts were trustworthy. I also learned about the different information that went into creating the models, including glacier ice melt, industrial carbon emissions, and deforestation, that are constantly added as knowledge expands to increase the accuracy.