Trade Bargaining Dataset
Scholars have made great efforts to compile large datasets of preferential trade agreements and detailed information on the design of the agreement. However, there have been inter-governmental attempts to strike trade pacts but in vain. Existing research has yet to offer a whole picture of the process leading to the ultimate cooperation. This data project aims to trace the trade negotiation process of both the successfully signed agreements and the unconcluded negotiations, that is, "Deals to be determined (TBD)."
The Trade Bargaining Dataset (TBD) contains the process and the status of trade negotiations. As of May 2021, the TBD lists negotiations involving 23 countries in the Indo-Pacific region between 1980 and 2020: Australia, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.
These 23 countries have participated in 260 negotiations with more than 110 countries in the past four decades: 57 negotiations are under study, 112 agreements have been in force, 10 are waiting for domestic ratification, 32 negotiations are still ongoing, and 49 negotiations already discontinued.
Below are some figures describing the trends of trade negotiations collected in the TBD.
The trends demonstrate that countries may negotiate for trade pacts, but they may also leave the negotiation tables. Participation in trade negotiations has been burgeoning in the Indo-Pacific region since the 2000s. Within a decade, the 23 countries had signed 64 agreements by 2010, and the number has grown to 121 in 2020. In the meantime, the occurrences of failed negotiations are not rare. The dashed line shows that the number of discontinued negotiations increases from 1 in 2000 to almost 48 in 2018.
Negotiations take place more frequently than the signing ceremonies of agreements. But we still know little about governments' attempts to cooperate and what their efforts turn out. The bars here represent the number of trade agreements signed by the 23 countries each year, and the line indicates the number of ongoing negotiations. Since 2005, more than 45 trade negotiations are going on every year.
Countries' participation in trade negotiations varies. Some countries, such as Japan and Singapore, have been active in pursuing trade agreements since 2000. Some, like China and South Korea, have caught up with the speed and completed more than 10 trade negotiations in the 2010s (see the bars at the bottom). However, some countries, like India and Thailand, have participated in multiple trade negotiations but achieved little in the past two decades (compare the height of the lines and the bars).
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