International Trade and Investment 

Working Papers:

• Multinationals and Structural Transformation, 

with Vanessa Alviarez (IDB), Cheng Chen (Clemson U), Nitya Pandalai-Nayar (UT Austin), Liliana Varela (LSE), and Kei-Mu Yi (Houston U), February 2026. NBER Working Paper 30494.

Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Monetary Economics 

• Institutional Quality and Reorganization of Multinational Production, 

with Huanhuan Wang (East China Normal U), Shufei Wang (Fudan U), and Zhijie Zhang (Fudan U), August 2026.

Revise and Resubmit, Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue canadienne d'économique 

• Organizing Product Cycles: Global Production and Innovation in the Semiconductor Industry, 

with Jaedo Choi (UT Austin), Hyungjin Kim (KDI), and Ryo Makioka (Hokkaido U). work in progress

• Endogenous Trade Elasticities and Welfare under Vertical Oligopoly, 

with Tomohiro Ara (Fukushima U), April 2026. under revision

• Production and Ownership Networks, 

with Cheng Chen (Clemson U), Chang Sun (HKU), and Jiaxu Zhang (HKU), December 2025. under revision

• Industrial Subsidies along Domestic Value Chains and Their Impacts on China’s Exports, 

with Wenyin Cheng (ADB), Tao Liang (IDE-JETRO), and Bo Meng (IDE-JETRO), December 2025. under revision

[VoxEU Column][VoxChina]

• Economic Disintegration and Multinational Production: Evidence from Brexit, 

with Hanwei Huang (CityUHK), Tatsuro Senga (Keio U), and Catherine Thomas (LSE), June 2023. under revision

Publications:

• Geopolitical Risk and Supply Chain Diversification: Evidence from Japanese multinational firms, 

with Ha Thi Thanh Doan (ERIA),  Asei Ito (UTokyo), and Changyuan Luo (Fudan U),

The World Economy, Accepted. [VoxEU Column] 

• Global Sourcing and Firm Inventory During the Pandemic, 

with Ha Thi Thanh Doan (ERIA), 

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, January 2026. [VoxEU Column]

• The impact of export controls on international trade: Evidence from the Japan-Korea trade dispute in the semiconductor industry, 

with Ryo Makioka (Hokkaido U), 

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, December 2024. [VoxEU Column]

• Technical barriers to trade, product quality and trade margins: firm-level evidence, 

with Ha Thi Thanh Doan (ERIA),

Review of World Economics, August 2024. 

• Moving out of China? Evidence from Japanese multinational firms, 

with Changyuan Luo (Fudan U) and Chunxiao Si (Shanghai U), 

Economic Modelling, May 2022. 

• Learning and information transmission within multinational corporations, 

with Cheng Chen (Clemson U) and Chang Sun (HKU), 

European Economic Review, April 2022. Open Access 

• The Impact of COVID-19 on Global Production: Evidence from Japanese Multinational Firms, 

The International Economy, The Japan Society of International Economics, December 2021. Open Access [VoxEU Column]

Covid Economics, Vetted and Real-Time Papers, CEPR Press, March 2021. Open Access

• The US-China Trade War: Implications for Japan’s Global Value Chains, 

in Etel Solingen (UC Irvine) (eds.) Geopolitics, Supply Chains, and International Relations in East Asia, 

Cambridge University Press, May 2021. 

• Networks of foreign affiliates: Evidence from Japanese micro-data, 

with Dorothée Rouzet (OECD) and Francesca Spinelli (OECD), 

The World Economy, July 2020. [VoxEU Column] 

• The Margins of Intermediate Goods Trade: Theory and Evidence, 

with Tomohiro Ara (Fukushima U), 

The International Economy, The Japan Society of International Economics, July 2020. Open Access

• Understanding the international mobility of Chinese temporary workers, 

The World Economy, March 2019. 

• Political connections and antidumping investigations: Evidence from China, 

China Economic Review, August 2018. 

• Markups and exporting behaviors of foreign affiliates, 

with Lianming Zhu (U Osaka), 

Journal of Comparative Economics, August 2017. 

• Impacts of the WTO accession on Chinese exports, 

with Ryuhei Wakasugi (Kyoto U), 

Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, May 2016. 

International Finance and Macroeconomics 

Working Papers:

• Firm Expectations and Investment: Evidence from the China-Japan Island Dispute, 

with Cheng Chen (Clemson U), Tatsuro Senga (Keio U), and Chang Sun (HKU), February 2022. [日本経済新聞] [Nikkei]

Revise and Resubmit, Pacific Economic Review

• Information Acquisition and Price Setting under Uncertainty, 

with Cheng Chen (Clemson U), Tatsuro Senga (Keio U), and Chang Sun (HKU). December 2025. under revision

• Production Network, Exchange Rate Shocks, and Firm Performance, 

with Zhigang Li (ADB) and Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia U), September 2018. under revision

Publications:

• Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm’s life cycle, 

with Cheng Chen (Clemson U), Tatsuro Senga (Keio U), and Chang Sun (HKU), 

Journal of Monetary Economics, November 2023. Open Access 

Previously circulated as "Uncertainty, Imperfect Information, and Learning in the International Market"

• Measuring business-level expectations and uncertainty: survey evidence and the COVID-19 pandemic, 

with Cheng Chen (Clemson U) and Tatsuro Senga (Keio U), 

The Japanese Economic Review, the Japanese Economic Association, July 2021. Open Access 

Political Economy 

Working Papers:

• Measuring Chinese Geopolitical Risk, 

with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (AGU), January 2026. under revision

• Under the Supreme Leader: How Political Signals Shape the Chinese Economy, 

with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (AGU), 

under contract for the book series Economics, Law, and Institutions in Asia Pacific published by Springer Nature.

Publications:

• Economic Power of Political Leaders: Evidence from Central Leaders' Local Tours in China, 

with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (AGU), 

The Developing Economies, forthcoming. Open Access [The Economist]

• Following the Leader: Belt and Road Initiative in Xi Jinping’s Evolving Policy Agenda, 

with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (AGU), 

in Min Ye (Boston U) et al. (eds.) Traversing the Belt and Road: The World According to China and China According to the World, 

Harvard University Press, October 2026. 

• Unpacking China’s Wolf Warrior Diplomacy: A Text-As-Data Approach, 

with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (AGU), 

Journal of Contemporary China, July 2026. Open Access 

• Measuring political leader's geopolitical risk perceptions, 

with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (AGU), 

International Economics, October 2025. Open Access 

• Remembering Li Keqiang: Policy Divergence in Zhongnanhai and Its Economic Consequences, 

with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (AGU), 

The China Quarterly, Cambridge University Press, June 2025. Open Access

• Uncovering Xi Jinping’s Policy Agenda: Text as Data Approach, 

with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (AGU), 

The Developing Economies, March 2025. Open Access

• Catching the political leader's signal: Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment in China, 

with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (AGU), 

China Economic Review, October 2023. 

Economic History 

Working Papers:

• A New Emperor, A New Court? Succession and Elite Adjustment in Tang China, 

with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (AGU), September 2026.

• Zizhi Tongjian as Data: From Historical Chronicle to Monthly Computational Corpus, 

with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (AGU), September 2026.

• The Tang-Song Transition as a Textual Hypothesis: Institutional Sequencing in Chinese Dynastic Chronicles, 

with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (AGU), September 2026.

Chinese Economy 

Publications:

• The value-added tax reform and labor market outcomes: Firm-level evidence from China, 

with Yuxiang Yang (Wuhan U), 

China Economic Review, October 2021. 

• How does agglomeration promote the product innovation of Chinese firms? 

China Economic Review, September 2015. [VoxEU Column]