Multinational Firms and FDI

• Multinationals and Structural Transformation, 

with Vanessa Alviarez (IDB), Cheng Chen (Clemson U), Nitya Pandalai-Nayar (UT Austin), Liliana Varela (LSE), and Kei-Mu Yi (Houston U). NBER Working Paper 30494. 

February 2026. Under Review

• Geopolitical Risk and Supply Chain Diversification: Evidence from Japanese multinational firms,

with Ha Thi Thanh Doan (ERIA),  Asei Ito (UTokyo), and Changyuan Luo (Fudan U). [VoxEU Column]  

January 2026. Revise and Resubmit at The World Economy  

• Economic Disintegration and Multinational Production: Evidence from Brexit, 

with Hanwei Huang (CityUHK), Tatsuro Senga (Keio U), and Catherine Thomas (LSE). 

June 2023. New draft coming soon...

• Firm Expectations and Investment: Evidence from the China-Japan island dispute,

with Cheng Chen (Clemson U), Tatsuro Senga (Keio U), and Chang Sun (HKU). [日本経済新聞] [Nikkei] 

February 2022. Revise and Resubmit at Pacific Economic Review 

• Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm’s life cycle,

Journal of Monetary Economics, November 2023, 140: 60-77. with Cheng Chen (Clemson U), Tatsuro Senga (Keio U), and Chang Sun (HKU) Open access 

previously circulated as "Uncertainty, Imperfect Information, and Learning in the International Market"

• Moving out of China? Evidence from Japanese multinational firms, 

Economic Modelling, May 2022, 110: 105826. with Changyuan Luo (Fudan U) and Chunxiao Si (Shanghai U)

• Learning and information transmission within multinational corporations,

European Economic Review, April 2022, 143: 104016. with Cheng Chen (Clemson U) and Chang Sun (HKU) Open access 

• The Impact of COVID-19 on Global Production: Evidence from Japanese Multinational Firms,

The International Economy (The Japan Society of International Economics), December 2021, 24: 142-165. Open access 

[Covid Economics] [VoxEU Column] 

• Networks of foreign affiliates: Evidence from Japanese micro-data, 

The World Economy, July 2020, 43(7): 1841-1867. with Dorothée Rouzet (OECD) and Francesca Spinelli (OECD) [VoxEU Column] 

• Markups and exporting behaviors of foreign affiliates, 

Journal of Comparative Economics, August 2017, 45(3): 445-455. with Lianming Zhu (U Osaka) 

Trade and Trade Policy

• Endogenous Trade Elasticities and Welfare under Vertical Oligopoly, 

with Tomohiro Ara (Fukushima U).

April 2026. Under Review

• Industrial Subsidies along Domestic Value Chains and Their Impacts on China’s Exports,

with Wenyin Cheng (ADB), Tao Liang (IDE-JETRO), and Bo Meng (IDE-JETRO). [VoxEU Column][VoxChina]

December 2025. 

• Production and Ownership Networks, 

with Cheng Chen (Clemson U), Chang Sun (HKU), and Jiaxu Zhang (HKU).

November 2025.

• Production Network, Exchange Rate Shocks, and Firm Performance, 

with Zhigang Li (ADB) and Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia U).

September 2018. New draft coming soon...

• Global Sourcing and Firm Inventory During the Pandemic, 

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2026, 62(2):  487-506. with Ha Thi Thanh Doan (ERIA) [VoxEU Column]

• The impact of export controls on international trade: Evidence from the Japan-Korea trade dispute in the semiconductor industry, 

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, December 2024, 74: 101336. with Ryo Makioka (Hokkaido U) [VoxEU Column]

• Technical barriers to trade, product quality and trade margins: firm-level evidence, 

Review of World Economics, August 2024, 160(3): 785-811. with Ha Thi Thanh Doan (ERIA) 

• Measuring business-level expectations and uncertainty: survey evidence and the COVID-19 pandemic, 

The Japanese Economic Review (Japanese Economic Association), July 2021, 72(3): 509-532. with Cheng Chen (Clemson U) and Tatsuro Senga (Keio U) Open access 

• The US-China Trade War: Implications for Japan’s Global Value Chains, 

in Etel Solingen (UC Irvine) (eds.) Geopolitics, Supply Chains, and International Relations in East Asia, 

Cambridge University Press, May 2021. 

• The Margins of Intermediate Goods Trade: Theory and Evidence,

The International Economy (The Japan Society of International Economics), July 2020, 23: 105-144. with Tomohiro Ara (Fukushima U) Open access 

• Impacts of the WTO accession on Chinese exports,

Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, May 2016, 14(4): 347-364. with Ryuhei Wakasugi (Kyoto U) 

The Political Economy of China

• Measuring Chinese Geopolitical Risk, 

with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (Aoyama Gakuin).

Draft coming soon...

• Economic Power of Political Leaders: Evidence from Central Leaders' Local Tours in China, 

The Developing Economies, forthcoming. with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (Aoyama Gakuin). [The Economist]

• Following the Leader: Belt and Road Initiative in Xi Jinping’s Evolving Policy Agenda, 

in Min Ye (Boston U) et al. (eds.) Traversing the Belt and Road: The World According to China and China According to the World, 

Harvard University Press, October 2026. with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (Aoyama Gakuin) 

• Unpacking China’s Wolf Warrior Diplomacy: A Text-As-Data Approach,

Journal of Contemporary China, July 2026, 35(160):. with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (Aoyama Gakuin). Open access 

Most read article published by the journal in 2025. [The Economist]

• Measuring political leader's geopolitical risk perceptions, 

International Economics, October 2025, 183: 100631. with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (Aoyama Gakuin). Open access 

• Remembering Li Keqiang: Policy Divergence in Zhongnanhai and Its Economic Consequences,

The China Quarterly (Cambridge University Press), June 2025, 262: 352-370. with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (Aoyama Gakuin) Open access 

• Uncovering Xi Jinping’s Policy Agenda: Text as Data Approach, 

The Developing Economies, March 2025, 63(1): 9-46. with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (Aoyama Gakuin). Open access, 

Editor's Choice, Top 10% of most-viewed papers published by the journal in 2024. 

• Catching the political leader's signal: Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment in China,

China Economic Review, October 2023, 81: 102035. with Asei Ito (UTokyo) and Jaehwan Lim (Aoyama Gakuin) 

• Political connections and antidumping investigations: Evidence from China,

China Economic Review, August 2018, 50: 34-41. 

Development and Growth

• The value-added tax reform and labor market outcomes: Firm-level evidence from China,

China Economic Review, October 2021, 69: 101678. with Yuxiang Yang (Wuhan U)

• Understanding the international mobility of Chinese temporary workers,

The World Economy, March 2019, 42(3): 738-758. 

• How does agglomeration promote the product innovation of Chinese firms?

China Economic Review, September 2015, 35: 105-120. [VoxEU Column]