Dr. Giulia Piccillo

Dr. Giulia Piccillo
Associate professor of Economics
Maastricht University

I study individual beliefs as a source of complexity in modern economic systems. I analyze their impact on economic, social and political outcomes. Within this interdisciplinary domain I model and estimate belief updating, heterogeneity of beliefs and the role of salient uncertainty in belief formation and through that in aggregate outcomes.

This includes the role of policy in periods of high economic uncertainty. My recent projects describe the spread of conspiracy theories, unscientific beliefs and fake news as a consequence of rising uncertainty in the recent years. Specifically, I model the role of narratives in climate change decisions and political discourse and the impact of misinformation in the context of social changes due to COVID-19.

I travel regularly and have been invited to policy institutions including the IMF, the ECB, the Dutch CPB, the US Federal Reserve. I was also a visiting researcher in universities like Frankfurt University and Stanford University and I am CESifo affiliate.

As an economist I am part of the Social Science and Humanities Dutch sector plan on "Disinformation & Democracy". Therefore, I often participate as an expert on disinformation or digital infrastructure in national discussions.

Popular Media

My academic papers have been cited in newspapers like the Washington Post and the Financial Post. Additionally, my work has been discussed on Dutch newspapers, radio and TV programs.

For fun

For a short summary of my work in this area (below 8 minutes), listen to the following Podcast, AI generated by Google Notebook LM! :)

Podcast research.m4a

2026 News:

February: My paper with Poramapa Poonpakdee: "Certainty Amid Uncertainty: Relationship between Aggregate Uncertainty and Individual Expectations" is accepted in the International Journal of Forecasting (data and replication package here)

January: My paper with Thomas Gomez: "Diverse risk preferences and heterogeneous expectations in an asset pricing model" is forthcoming in the Journal of economic Interaction and Coordination;

Past events

Track in 5th Annual MORSE conference - Climate Change, Uncertainty and Sovereign Finance; co-organized with Diogo Sampaio Lima Maastricht, 2025.

Track in 5th Annual MORSE conference - Macroeconomic News and Uncertainty; co-organized with Lenard Lieb. Maastricht, 2025.

Track in 4th annual MORSE conference - Uncertainty in Empirical Macroeconomics and Firm Dynamics; co-organized with Siavash Mohades; Maastricht, October 2024.

Track in 4th annual MORSE conference - Expectations and Narratives in Macroeconomics; co-organized with Julian Ashwin; Maastricht, October 2024.

Track with 3 sessions on Resilience to Uncertainty in 3rd annual MORSE conference; co-organized with Poramapa Poonpakdee; Maastricht, 2023

Workshop on Animal Spirits in Empirical Macroeconomics; co-organized with Jasper Lukkezen; Utrecht, 2016

Euroframe Conference; co-organized with Jasper Lukkezen; Utrecht, 2016

Blogs

Economic uncertainty and business decisions - what is the link?; joint with Siavash Mohades and Tania Treibich; May 2024

In our interconnected global economy, uncertainty is like a tempest that sweeps across financial markets, businesses, and households. It’s that unsettling feeling when you’re unsure about what lies ahead—the fog that obscures the path forward. But what exactly is economic uncertainty, and why does it matter? Let’s explore.

Making sense of uncertainty; joint with Poramapa Poonpakdee; June 2023

Uncertainty can make our lives difficult. If you are looking to sign an energy contract now (mid-2023), you may find it difficult to choose between a fixed rate and a variable rate since we are unsure if the energy price will rise or fall. Historically, uncertainty always spikes during crises. According to the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, the level of uncertainty during the 2000 Dot-Com crisis was around 170, rose to over 200 during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and peaked at 440 during the 2020 Covid Crisis. This implies a growing magnitude of uncertainty, making us more vulnerable. However, what do we really know about uncertainty? This blogpost will walk through the basic concepts of uncertainty in economics, coupled with a few takeaways from our research.

How to improve your resilience in uncertain times; October 2022

Remember the last time you were wrong? And I don’t mean slightly off-target but very, very wrong. Everything looked crisp, clear. It just made sense. There was no doubt, so you went all in.Then the shock. Reality sank in. Slowly at first. Gradually there was more nuance. Gray shades were all over the place. Finally what had been so obviously true, was not there after all.Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan must have felt this way in 2008 as he sat across Congress describing the mistake in belief that led to the unfolding of the financial crisis: “The whole intellectual edifice […] collapsed in the summer of last year.” At least, this is one notable example. You can find other conspicuous mistakes all over the web.So if you were ever wrong before, you are in good company. And yet. Maybe you want to know how to be less wrong, less of your time. Interdisciplinary studies around the world, and within MORSE @UM can help. Following are three science driven tips to achieve resilience to uncertainty.

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