Dr. Giulia Piccillo
Behavioral Macroeconomist
Maastricht University
Dr. Giulia Piccillo
Behavioral Macroeconomist
Maastricht University
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Behavioral Macroeconomist
Maastricht University
I am Associate Professor of Macroeconomics at the School of Business and Economics at Maastricht University. As an economist I am part of the Social Science and Humanities sector plan on "Disinformation & Democracy". I also serve as sub-theme leader on resilience to uncertainty in the UM MORSE spearhead.
I am Associate Professor of Macroeconomics at the School of Business and Economics at Maastricht University. As an economist I am part of the Social Science and Humanities sector plan on "Disinformation & Democracy". I also serve as sub-theme leader on resilience to uncertainty in the UM MORSE spearhead.
I study the source of animal spirits as well as their impact on economic, social and political outcomes. Within this interdisciplinary domain I focus on belief heterogeneity and on the role of economic and individual uncertainty in decision making and aggregate outcomes. This includes the role of policy in periods of high economic uncertainty. My recent projects describe the spread of conspiracy theories, unscientific beliefs and fake news as a consequence of rising uncertainty in the recent years. Specifically, I model the role of narratives in climate change decisions and political discourse and the impact of misinformation in the context of social changes due to COVID-19.
I study the source of animal spirits as well as their impact on economic, social and political outcomes. Within this interdisciplinary domain I focus on belief heterogeneity and on the role of economic and individual uncertainty in decision making and aggregate outcomes. This includes the role of policy in periods of high economic uncertainty. My recent projects describe the spread of conspiracy theories, unscientific beliefs and fake news as a consequence of rising uncertainty in the recent years. Specifically, I model the role of narratives in climate change decisions and political discourse and the impact of misinformation in the context of social changes due to COVID-19.
I travel regularly and have been invited to policy institutions including the IMF, the ECB, the Dutch CPB, the US Federal Reserve. I was also a visiting researcher in universities like Frankfurt University and Stanford University and I am CESifo affiliate.
I travel regularly and have been invited to policy institutions including the IMF, the ECB, the Dutch CPB, the US Federal Reserve. I was also a visiting researcher in universities like Frankfurt University and Stanford University and I am CESifo affiliate.
Throughout my career I taught courses in Macroeconomics and Finance in several universities in Italy, the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands.
Throughout my career I taught courses in Macroeconomics and Finance in several universities in Italy, the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands.
Popular Media
Popular Media
My academic papers have been cited in newspapers like the Washington Post and the Financial Post. Additionally, my work has been discussed on Dutch newspapers, radio and TV programs.
My academic papers have been cited in newspapers like the Washington Post and the Financial Post. Additionally, my work has been discussed on Dutch newspapers, radio and TV programs.
For a short summary of my work in this area (below 8 minutes), listen to the following Podcast, AI generated by Google Notebook LM! :)
Podcast research.m4aNews
News
January 2025: Extraordinary Measures: The Role of Debt Levels in Fiscal Policy Responses to Covid-19, with Adam Elbourne and Konstantinos Velentzas.
available at: https://www.cpb.nl/en/extraordinary-measures-role-debt-levels-fiscal-policy-responses-covid-19
Coming up events
Track in 5th Annual MORSE conference - Climate Change, Uncertainty and Sovereign Finance; co-organized with Diogo Sampaio Lima.
Track in 5th Annual MORSE conference - Macroeconomic News and Uncertainty; co-organized with Lenard Lieb.
The call for papers will be posted here as soon as it opens! The MORSE Conference will take place between October 23-25, 2025 in Maastricht.
Past events
Track in 4th annual MORSE conference - Uncertainty in Empirical Macroeconomics and Firm Dynamics; co-organized with Siavash Mohades; Maastricht, October 2024.
Track in 4th annual MORSE conference - Uncertainty in Empirical Macroeconomics and Firm Dynamics; co-organized with Siavash Mohades; Maastricht, October 2024.
Track in 4th annual MORSE conference - Expectations and Narratives in Macroeconomics; co-organized with Julian Ashwin; Maastricht, October 2024.
Track in 4th annual MORSE conference - Expectations and Narratives in Macroeconomics; co-organized with Julian Ashwin; Maastricht, October 2024.
Track with 3 sessions on Resilience to Uncertainty in 3rd annual MORSE conference; co-organized with Poramapa Poonpakdee; Maastricht, 2023
Workshop on Animal Spirits in Empirical Macroeconomics; co-organized with Jasper Lukkezen; Utrecht, 2016
Euroframe Conference; co-organized with Jasper Lukkezen; Utrecht, 2016
Blogs
Economic uncertainty and business decisions - what is the link?; joint with Siavash Mohades and Tania Treibich; May 2024
In our interconnected global economy, uncertainty is like a tempest that sweeps across financial markets, businesses, and households. It’s that unsettling feeling when you’re unsure about what lies ahead—the fog that obscures the path forward. But what exactly is economic uncertainty, and why does it matter? Let’s explore.
Making sense of uncertainty; joint with Poramapa Poonpakdee; June 2023
Uncertainty can make our lives difficult. If you are looking to sign an energy contract now (mid-2023), you may find it difficult to choose between a fixed rate and a variable rate since we are unsure if the energy price will rise or fall. Historically, uncertainty always spikes during crises. According to the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, the level of uncertainty during the 2000 Dot-Com crisis was around 170, rose to over 200 during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and peaked at 440 during the 2020 Covid Crisis. This implies a growing magnitude of uncertainty, making us more vulnerable. However, what do we really know about uncertainty? This blogpost will walk through the basic concepts of uncertainty in economics, coupled with a few takeaways from our research.How to improve your resilience in uncertain times; October 2022
Remember the last time you were wrong? And I don’t mean slightly off-target but very, very wrong. Everything looked crisp, clear. It just made sense. There was no doubt, so you went all in.Then the shock. Reality sank in. Slowly at first. Gradually there was more nuance. Gray shades were all over the place. Finally what had been so obviously true, was not there after all.Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan must have felt this way in 2008 as he sat across Congress describing the mistake in belief that led to the unfolding of the financial crisis: “The whole intellectual edifice […] collapsed in the summer of last year.” At least, this is one notable example. You can find other conspicuous mistakes all over the web.So if you were ever wrong before, you are in good company. And yet. Maybe you want to know how to be less wrong, less of your time. Interdisciplinary studies around the world, and within MORSE @UM can help. Following are three science driven tips to achieve resilience to uncertainty.Page updated
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