Research

“Fake News Zealots: Effect of Perception of News on Online Sharing Behaviour”, joint with t'Serstevens, F. and Grigoriev, A., Frontiers in Psychology, 2022

This paper studies the relationship between sharing and believing news in a simulated social media environment. The main finding highlights that believing news is an important factor in order to sharing them, but it is not the only one. 

“Modeling Diverse Expectations in an Aggregated New Keynesian Model”, joint with Mordecai Kurz and Howei Wu, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 37, Issue 8, August 2013

This paper shows the amplification role that uncertainty-based, diverse beliefs have on economic volatility. As a consequence of these beliefs the role of the monetary policy maker is more nuanced and complex than when volatility arises as a result of only exogenous shocks.

“The Central Bank Governor and Interest Rate Setting by Committee”, joint with van Ommeren, Emile, CESifo Economic Studies Volume 67, Issue 2, June 2021

This paper, summarized in some detail in the Financial Post, shows the relevance central bank governors have on mmonetary policy, even when within a committee. As a result, characteristics of the governors become relevant also for monetary policy. 

“The Relation between Corporate and Government Debt Maturity in Europe” joint with Lugo, Stefano, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 54(5), pp. 2119-2140 (2019)

This paper extends research done on the US financial markets to the Euro Area. We show that when governments in the Euro Area borrow funds  at long maturities, they incentivize firms in the Euro Area to borrow at shorter maturities. Therefore this result holds internationally in the EA financial market as it does within the US market.

“Exploring multi-scale variability in hotspot mapping: A case study on housing prices and crime occurrences in Heerlen”, joint with Fabiënne Kortas, Alexander Grigoriev, Cities, Volume 128, 2022, 103814, ISSN 0264-2751

In this paper we study the relationship between house prices and crime within Heerlen, NL. We especially explore the stability of the relationship at different scales, highlighting new insight into theoretical mechanisms. 

“African trade dynamics: is China a different trading partner?” Joint with Paul De Grauwe and Romain Houssa, Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Volume 10, Issue 1, 2012

In this paper we show that China has been trading with several African countries based on consistent choices of import/export and national traits of trading partners. 

"Foreign exchange and stock market: two related markets?", book chapter in "Globalisation New Challenges" edited by Isabel Vieira, 2010; Part of ISBN: 978-3-8383-6250-2

In this paper I show that the foreign exchange market and the stock markets are tied in a non linear way through market expectations.

Principal Investigator for the external project: Social media Communication for Regional Analysis and Provincial Expertise (S.C.R.A.P.E.): project co-funded by UM and the Province of Limburg on topics and linguistics of communication in the region of Limburg, under the Provincial Agenda of Digital Society (2018 and 2019)

Unpacking Economic Uncertainty — Measuring the Firm, Sector and Aggregate Components, Siavash Mohades, Giulia Piccillo, Tania Treibich, CESifo, Munich, 2024, CESifo Working Paper No. 10974

Extraordinary Measures: The Role of Debt Levels in Fiscal Policy Responses to Covid-19, Adam Elbourne, Giulia Piccillo, Konstantinos Velentzas, CESifo, Munich, 2023, CESifo Working Paper No. 10852

Expectations and the Stability of Stock-Flow Consistent Models, Huub Meijers, Joan Muysken, Giulia Piccillo, CESifo, Munich, 2023, CESifo Working Paper No. 10696

Ambiguous Business Cycles, Recessions and Uncertainty: A Quantitative Analysis, Giulia Piccillo, Poramapa Poonpakdee, CESifo, Munich, 2023, CESifo Working Paper No. 10646

Does U.S. Monetary Policy Respond to Macroeconomic Uncertainty?, Thomas Gomez, Giulia Piccillo, CESifo, Munich, 2023, CESifo Working Paper No. 10407

Effects of Macro Uncertainty on Mean Expectation and Subjective Uncertainty: Evidence from Households and Professional Forecasters, Giulia Piccillo, Poramapa Poonpakdee, CESifo, Munich, 2021, CESifo Working Paper No. 9486

The surprising effect of social distancing on our perception: Coping with uncertainty, G Piccillo, J Van Den Hurk; Covid Economics, 2020, 132

Diverse Risk Preferences and Heterogeneous Expectations in an Asset Pricing Model, Thomas Gomez, Giulia Piccillo, CESifo, Munich, 2019, CESifo Working Paper No. 8003

Monetary Policy with Diverse Private Expectations, Mordecai Kurz, Maurizio Motolese, Giulia Piccillo, Howei Wu, CESifo, Munich, 2015, CESifo Working Paper No. 5252

Exchange Rates and Asset Prices: Heterogeneous Agents at Work, Giulia Piccillo, CESifo, Munich, 2013, CESifo Working Paper No. 4257