Poramapa Poonpakdee
PhD candidate in Economics
School of Business and Economics,
Maastricht University
p.poonpakdee@maastrichtuniversity.nl
Greetings! I am currently a 4th year PhD candidate in Economics at Maastricht University's School of Business and Economics. My research idea focuses on connecting macroeconomic data and decision making theories under uncertainty. I have two awesome supervisors, Clemens Kool and Giulia Piccillo. Before beginning my PhD study, I worked for 2.5 years in the monetary policy department at the Bank of Thailand. This June 2023, I am starting an internship at De Nederlandsche Bank's Data Science Hub.
Research Interest uncertainty, ambiguity aversion, business cycle analysis, monetary policy, capital flows and DSGE modeling
Education
PhD candidate in Economics (current) Maastricht University, Netherlands
MA in Mathematics of Finance (2014) Columbia University, USA
BA in Economics (2012) Ewha Womans University, South Korea
Working Paper
Ambiguous Business Cycles, Recessions and Uncertainty: quantitative analysis (Sept 2023) with G. Piccillo
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of uncertainty on the macro economy by replicating the micro effects of uncertainty on individual subjective beliefs. In our model, the representative household has smooth ambiguity preferences and is uncertain about which scenario the economy will be in the next period: normal growth or recession. We anchor the ratio of expected utilities between the two scenarios through the empirical macroeconomic uncertainty index. The higher the macroeconomic uncertainty rises, the deeper the recession that the household is expecting. Our estimations demonstrate that the smooth ambiguity model with an appropriate level of ambiguity aversion outperforms the benchmark model with no uncertainty in fitting output growth rate, especially during recessions. This holds true even when tested with out-of-sample forecasts. Finally, our analysis reveals that the Global Financial Crisis was associated with an increase in both risk aversion and ambiguity aversion, while the Dot-com Crisis only affected risk aversion.
Abstract
Macroeconomic uncertainty affects the subjective distribution of individual expectations. Using four panel datasets, we document the effects of macro uncertainty on the mean expectation (first moment) and subjective uncertainty (second moment) of income forecasts. We find that macro uncertainty reduces the mean expectation of income when using professional forecasters’ data as most macroeconomic models assume. However, macro uncertainty does not have a monotonic effect on subjective uncertainty. This finding is at odds with most models, which assume higher individual subjective uncertainty as the microfoundation for the impact of uncertainty on decision-making.
Work expericence
PhD intern (June 2023 - current)
Data Science Hub, Dutch National BankEconomist (2016 - 2018)
Monetary Policy Department, Bank of ThailandResearch assistant to Prof. Moon Sub Choi (2013 - 2014)
Ewha School of Business, Ewha Womans UniversityResearch assistant to Dr. Somchai Jitsuchon (2013)
Department of Inclusive Development, Thailand Development Research Institute
Teaching
Macroeconomics (2019 - 2022)
1st year undergarduate course, Maastricht UniversityEconomics and Society in Contemporary Asia (2019 - 2023)
3rd year undergarduate course, Maastricht UniversityEmerging Markets in the Global Economy (2020 - 2022)
3rd year undergarduate course, Maastricht University
Personal
DOTA2 I am a DOTA2 enthusiast and always excited to watch professional matches. I am a fan of Nigma Galaxy (WEU) and Talon (SEA).
Central bank tour I get a thrill from visiting central banks as a tourist to explore their unique building architecture and discover the history of the surrounding area.