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This page sets out some links to my statistical analysis on the Codiv-19 pandemic. I also post some useful links and materials from other scholars and institutions working on this extremely important issue.
- During the Studio24 television broadcast on the Rainews24 television channel, I made an intervention aimed at explaining the spread of Covid-19 over Italian regions, as well as the expected date of the epidemic peak for Italy.
Click here to watch the video (in Italian).
- I prepared a comprehensive video and presentation on "The Anatomy of the Covid-19 Outbreak: Dynamic, Prediction, Scenarios", where I concentrate on 3 key areas of the Covid-19 outbreak: the pandemic's dynamic, predictions and statistical scenarios.
Click here to download the Presentation (in English)
Click here to download the Video (in English)
- Download my working paper titled "Predicting Codiv-19 infection 'peak' in Italy"
- This graph shows a logistic curve interpolation of the daily series of new positive cases of Covid-19 in Italy as of April 12, 2020. The figure shows two things: 1) the descending phase of the pandemic has a much more erratic pattern than the ascending phase; 2) the alleged date of the epidemic peak should take place around May 2, 2020.
- Click here to download the Stata code to run the Covid-19 simulation scenarios analysis (example graph below)
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