Research

Publications

Threat of Taxation, Stagnation and Social Unrest: Evidence from 19th Century Sicily with Rohner, D. and Saia, A.   Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (2022) Volume 202, pages 361-371.

Taxation may trigger social unrest, as highlighted by historical examples. At the same time, tax income could boost state capacity which may, in turn, foster political stability. Understanding the a priori ambiguous taxation-turmoil nexus is particularly relevant for low-income countries today – yet causal evidence on the topic is very scarce. Using a regression discontinuity design, we exploit a unique policy experiment in 19th century Sicily to identify the effect of taxation on social unrest. It turns out that it is mostly the threat of taxation that may distort economic investment and ultimately result in greater political turmoil.

Reservoirs of Power: The Political Legacy of Dam Construction in Franco's Spain  Explorations in Economic History (2024) Volume 94 

This paper delves into infrastructure projects initiated during the dictatorship in Spain, particularly the construction of reservoirs and dams. These projects were instrumental in bolstering support for right-wing factions advocating for Franco’s regime over the years. However, our research reveals a notable trend: areas where dams were erected by the regime demonstrate diminished political backing for right-wing parties in the post-dictatorship era. We present evidence suggesting that this phenomenon is driven by the use of forced labor in dam construction by the regime, as inferred from the proximity to concentration camps. To address endogeneity concerns, we instrument dam construction with river gradient suitability.

Work in Progress

Educated to be mothers?  Indoctrination and demographic backlash with Le Moglie, M. and Sandi, M. 

Social norms play a critical role in shaping fertility choices. This paper shows that public policy aimed at increasing fertility by reinforcing traditional gender roles can backfire. We study the 1945 primary education reform implemented under Franco’s regime in Spain, which promoted nationalist-religious values and emphasized women’s domestic roles. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure across birth cohorts  within an ordinary least squares framework, we find that women exposed to the reform bear significantly fewer children than their unexposed counterparts. We further provide suggestive evidence that exposed women are more likely to reject the regime’s promoted gender norms and family ideals, pointing to the possibility of a cultural backlash. At the aggregate level, this individual-level decline translates into a marked reduction in fertility rates in areas with a larger pre-reform share of potentially affected women.  Taken together, our findings highlight the unintended long-term consequences that state-led efforts to engineer social norms—particularly under autocratic regimes—can have on demographic behavior.

Presented at : Summer Crime Workshop 2024 at Bocconi University (Italy), the Fourth Winter Symposium in Economics and Finance at the Catholic University of Milan (Italy), seminar at UNSW Sydney (Australia), the AXA Gender Lab Seminar Series at Bocconi University (Italy), ALP-POP Conference (DONDENA, Bocconi University), 4th Junior Economists Meeting at University of Milan and Economic History Seminar at Universidad Carlos III of Madrid (Spain)

Polarization for Exploration with Sanchez Ibrahim, J.  submitted

Party polarization may yield new insights into voter preferences by directing attention to specific issues. We investigate theoretically and empirically the relationship between party polarization and party learning. In our two-period model, parties are initially uncertain about voter preferences but acquire information if they polarize. This framework reveals a novel polarizing force: parties' exploration incentives. Under certain conditions, a party polarizes only to learn the true state of public opinion, thus enabling more informed future decisions. To illustrate these mechanisms, we examine the Spanish abortion debate as a case study. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design,  we identify shifts in the tone of politicians' tweets driven by rising public attention to abortion, which itself stems from prior party polarization. We further calibrate our model using Spanish survey data to assess whether polarization was driven solely by exploration incentives.

Presented at : WIP seminar at Catholic University of Milan (Italy) and XXVII Applied Economics Meeting at the University of Murcia (Spain) 

Witch hunt and female inventors with Pellegrino, G. and Raiteri, E. 

This paper explores the long-term impact of historical female persecution on women's participation in innovation. We investigate whether the widespread witch hunts in Germany during the 16th and 17th centuries, which disproportionately targeted women, contributed to the persistent gender gap in innovation today. Using historical records of witch trials and modern patenting data, we show that areas with more intense witch trials exhibit a significantly lower proportion of female inventors. We argue that the threat of persecution led to the suppression of knowledge transmission among women, reducing their participation in technological advancement.  Our findings are robust across various empirical specifications, including alternative measures of persecution intensity and different regional samples. By uncovering a historical determinant of gender disparities in innovation, this study contributes to the broader literature on the long-term effects of discrimination and gender inequality in STEM fields.

Presented at :  DRUID Conference at the University of Toronto (Canada), EPIP Conference (University of Antwerp)

From Rupture to Resilience: How the 1937 Massacre Shaped Social Networks with  Sanchez Ibrahim, J. and Victoria-Lanzon, C. 

To be presented at : seminar at University of Murcia (2026)

This paper applies the network model of Galeotti et al., (2010) to study how localized infrastructure destruction shapes social capital. In the model, voting is a coordination game with strategic complementarities, where denser networks foster higher turnout. We then test these predictions using the case of the 1937 attack on civilians fleeing Málaga during the Spanish Civil War, which destroyed a key coastal road and isolated nearby towns. Comparing municipalities differentially affected by this shock, we find that isolated towns developed stronger internal bonds, reflected in persistently higher levels of political participation. Our identification strategy relies on within-province variation in proximity to the bombed road, and the results prove robust across multiple specifications, alternative definitions of treatment, and placebo tests. Finally, we explore mechanisms using a difference-in-differences approach, focusing on literacy and population growth.

Water Scarcity and Conflict: Evidence from the Lake Chad Basin with Berlanda, A. and Letta, G. 

Democracy and Conflict with Rohner, D. and Saia, A.

Presented at :  Workshop on Conflict and Third Party Intervention at the University of Padova (Italy), seminar at Bocconi University

Other

Identifying the gender of PCT inventors (2016) with Raffo, J. and Saito, K. World Intellectual Property Organization Economic Research Working Paper No. 33. Media:  El País

Expanding the World Gender-Name Dictionary: WGND 2.0, with  Saenz de Juano-i-Ribes, H., Yin, D.,  Le Feuvre, B., Hamdan-Livramento, I., Saito, K. and Raffo, J