The most noticable thing to happen in January was the commodities and the price of Gold and Silver. I was on holiday when Silver plunged so still a bit unsure of what was going on, but it does raise alarms for me that this could spread to equities at some point. If Silver can plunge 20%+ in a day, so can a stock you hold. This is why you need to be on top of your portfolio.

Geopolitics also seemed to go a bit crazy in January, and Trump seems like he is on a mission to increase uncertainty in the markets. His tactic of threaten a country and then pull back is becoming a bit predictable.

• London Liverpool development given green light.

• Dow Jones goes above 50,000 for the first time ever.

• BBC licence fee to rise by £5.50 to £180 per year from April.

• Average UK house price tops £300,000 for the first time.

• Bank of England leaves interest rates on hold at 3.75%

• Tech fears wipe billions off the vlaue of US stocks.

• Anthropic's new AI legal tool wipes billions off European data stocks.

• Walmart becomes first retailer to hit $1tn market value.

Happy New Year and good luck in 2026 with your investing. I think you might need it.

Today saw the FTSE 100 break the 10,000 mark before quickly falling. Is that it or will the bull run continue?

2025 was the best year ever for my investing. It was like an excuse to print money. Before I get carried away though, I believe 2026 will be much harder, so this site will be much more useful to you going forward. If the markets crash, which I feel they might, my screener will give you the data.

Total: 11 red, 11 black.

• Silver suffers one of its worst days ever plunging 28%in a single day on the 30th.

• Gold hits new record and jumps above $5000 per ounce on fresh Trump fears.

• Trump threatens Canada with 100% tarriffs over China trade deal. The man is an idiot.

• Price of silver triples in a year to over $100, which normally indicates serious risk in global markets.

• Trump pulls out of tarriffs after discussions over Greenland.

• UK borrowing down significantly in December year-on-year after increases in tax from budget.

• UK inflation rises to 3.4% in December despite expecting to drop.

• Unemployment rate remains at 5.1% whilst wage growth slows to 4.5%.

• Price of Gold and Silver touch record levels as markets spooked by Greenland tensions.

• Sadiq Khan warns AI could bring massive unemplyment to London.

• US tarriffs war could 'trigger 'UK recession' of 0.75% of UK GDP.

• Trump threatens Europe with 10% tariffs over Greenland deal.

• UK grew more than expected in November at 0.3%

• Jobseeker numbers rise sharply in labour market setback.

• Tesco's UK market share hits a 10-year high of 29%.

• Learner drivers may have to wait 6 months before taking tests.

• Claire's and The Original Factory Shop enter administration.

• Donald Trump invades Venezuela, threatens Greenland, and risks geopolitical carnage in 2026.

• Fiscal drag to push thousands of UK families into child benefit tax charge.

FTSE 100 breaks and closes above 10,000 for the first time.

• UBER prices set to soar as VAT changes to mini cabs set to be introduced.

• FTSE 100 breaks the 10,000 mark for the first time.

2025 was the year to get rich without doing much, with the FTSE 100 rising 21.51% over the course of the year. If you wasn’t investing, what was you doing? My portfolio went up by an impressive 27.41%.

The UK economy seems to just be in a sad decline over the year. Inflation has come down and so have interest rates, but inflation seems to be hard to get down permanently. I do partly blame Brexit, but I also blame some extremely poor fiscal decisions from Labour. Unemployment seems to be going the wrong way and there just seems to be this notion that the UK is in decline and I have to agree with that.

The problems are not just limited to the UK. There seems to be more geo-political risk for my liking and fear it could get worse. Donald Trump’s narcissism seems to be getting worse, and fear something could go wrong in 2026.

I fear the rumours of overvalued stocks are true, negative yield curves worry me and do think 2026 could be a bad year for markets so I will have my finger on the sell button.

Predictions

• I think geopolitical risk will be the biggest risk of 2026 and any escalations could threaten markets. I switch on the news daily and all I see is news about conflicts, and fear that this could get worse in 2026. Be ready to sell if things get worse. Markets don't like uncertainty.

• The start of the year will see markets continue to creep up, and we will see more poor economic news. I can’t see more than two rate cuts in 2026.

• The FTSE 100 will break the 10,000 mark with ease and we could see 11,000, especially if the S&P 500 continues to perform well. I will put my neck on the line and say it will not reach that level.

• Markets will be more fragile than 2025 and could probably see a bit more volatility like we saw with 'Liberation Day'. I think it is pretty certain that there will be a period of decline in share prices. If this is a crash, only time will tell.

• May elections in the UK will be a key moment for the direction for the rest of the year. 'No idea Kier' and Rachel Reeves will almost certainly be out of a job by the end of the year if the results are bad, and lets be honest, both have been massive disappointments.

• Donald Trump’s cognitive ability will get worse, and if this becomes ever more noticeable, then this could bring more risk to the market as investors get spooked. He seems to be becoming more unpredictable and irrational over time, and this brings big risks.

• Over valuations in US share prices will eventually become unsustainable. If this causes a shock and a massive sell off, only time will tell. For a while now, I have believed certain FTSE stocks are overpriced and due a correction. Banks especially seem to be overvalued in my opinion.

• Debt remains a big issue both in the UK and globally. Watch the bond yields. The 10-year UK gilt hasn’t been below 3% since 2022, and that is causing the UK economy big problems.

• US midterms in November will be interesting, especially if the S&P 500 is falling or if Trump has done anything stupid on a global scale in the run up to these elections.

Summary

I don’t see this being a great year and the skill to make money will be much harder than 2025. My screener will hopefully be able to navigate the risks better than not having it and I will publish data as and when I spot risks. Good luck in 2026.

Summary: November saw what some might have through was the beginning of a sell-off with the FTSE 100 almost breaking the 10,000 mark, hitting 9,911 on the 12th before going into a 400 point drop, before starting a mini recover. Is this a warning sign?

Across the pond, the S&P 500 also seemed to have lost a bit of steam but think it will recover. Also, although I am only interested in equities, what is going on with Bitcoin?  In three months, it is down 17%. Will this sell-off spread to equities?

Let's hope for a Santa rally.

New: This month, I launched what I call the Phillip Ratio, please see that section for details, but the ratio is 1.013.

Budget opinion

As budgets go, it was certainly a ‘Labour Budget,’ but I didn’t think it was bad as the run up was making it. More tax-rises, but it could have been worse. The way the right-wing media are attacking Reeves is a bit OOT. She is certainly not good enough for the role, but the markets thought it was ok. Disappointed about ISA’s, so this is why you need this site.

Total: 16 red, 13 black.

• The FTSE 100 ends 2025 at 9,931, just below the 10,000 mark.

• UK ends 2025 in last amongst the G7 for investment.

• UK consumer spending in 2025 drops to the lowest level since the COVID pandemic.

• UK to drop two places on the GDP per capita rank by 2030.

• Visits to UK high-street on Boxing Day down 1.4% on 2024.

• Busiest Christmas Eve since records began in 1972.

• US economy grows at fastest pace in two-years in Q3.

• Labour U-turns on farmer inheritance rise.

• £100 contactless card limit to be lifted from March 2026.

• Gold price reaches $4,400 to reach record high.

• UK construction falls to a 10-year low.

• UK economic growth downgraded for Q2 2025.

• US inflation falls to 2.7%, well below the expected rate of 3.1%.

• Bank of England cuts rates to 3.75%

• London house prices drop 2% in 2025.

• UK redundancies hit highest since COVID.

• UK inflation fallls fast than expected, falling to 3.2% in November.

• US unemployment hits 4-year high of 4.6% in November.

• UK and South Korea strike trade deal.

• UK unemployment rises to 5.1%

• Fed lowers its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75.

• London underground fares to go up by 5.8% in 2026.

• The UK economy shrank 0.1% in October, the second consecutive month of decline.

• Jamie Oliver to bring back Jamie's Italian in 2026.

• Equity funds suffer their deepest and most prolonged bout of outflows on record in the last 6-months.

• Construction sector in worse downturn for five-and-a-half-years.

• OECD predict UK inflation to be second highest in G7 in 2026.

• Bank of England warns of AI bubble risk.

• OBR head resigns over Budget Day publishing error.

Summary: Another month, more records in October, with the FTSE 100 rising another 2.8% and smashing the 9,700 mark for the first time. The S&P 500 'only' managed 1.62%. There still seems to be ever more news articles about a market crash, and they won't go away. The fact Warren Buffett seems worried is a concern.

New: This month sees my website add a section dedicated to the 'Fear and greed index'. This hopes to track market sentiment. The first score is fear. 😥

The budget should be the highlight of the month if you can call it a highlight. It will be painful. Try and get as much money into your ISA as you can ahead of the budget.

Budget Breakdown

• Tax threasholds to remain frozen until 2031, dragging more people into higher tax brackets.

• EV drivers will be charged per mile from 2028.

• From April 2026, minimum wage will rise to £12.71 per hour, up from £12.21.

• From April 2028. the mansion tax comes into force, and rich people like me will be hit.

• Cash ISA annual allowance will be reduced for under 65's from £20k to £12k.

• From April 2027, savings income tax rates go up 2% - 22% and 42% respectively. Use your ISA.

• Two-child cap to be scrapped.

• Salary sacrifice schemes to be capped at £2k a year. You can add more but will be taxed.

• State pension to rise by 4.8%.

• The price of my milkshakes and iced lattes will be going up due to the 'milkshake tax'.

Total: 12 red, 7 black.

• OBR reduces UK growth in 2026 and the following three years.

• Rail fares to be frozen in England in 2026.

• Energy price cap to rise 0.2% in January when experts were predicting a fall.

• Government borrowing of £17.4bn in October higher than analysts were expecting.

• Number of British Nationals who left the UK in 2024 estimated to be 257,000.

• Half of all jobs lost under Labour are under-25s.

• UK Inflation falls to 3.6%

• UK GDP grows a poor 0.1% between July and September, in a sign that the UK economy is slowing.

• UK economy falls 0.1% in September.

• UK unemployment reaches 5% and the highest since late 2020.

• Deposit guarantee scheme expected to rise from £85,000 to £120,000 from December.

• Construction industy sheds workers at the steepest rate in 5 years.

• UK businesses accelerate lay-offs amid AI surge and legislative uncertainty.

• UK house prices rise at their fastest rate since January.

• Bank of England holds interest rates at 4% amid budget fears.

• Four in 10 Londoners 'ready to quit capital' over housing costs. 

• Pound falls to the lowest level in seven months (April) off the back of budget and tax rises speculation.

• Reeves announces surprise pre-budget speech in order to calm markets ahead of November budget.

• Uk unemplyment rate to hit 5% in 2026, experts warn.

Summary: The 'September slump' in markets didn't actually happen, with the S&P 500 rising by about 4.8% and the FTSE 100 rising about 3.5% even going through the 9,400 mark for the first time on the back of the US' positive reactions to the FED rate cut.  The S&P 500 even had its best September in 15 years.  These are impressive one-month gains, but will it last? Some of the comments I see are still talking the market down.

The markets still seem to be the only positive in a UK that continues to just disappoint. There does seem to be disconnect between the performance of the FTSE 100 sn the UK economy. This has to be a risk.

The Labour conference seemed to be full of pessimism and, with the budget approaching, I only expect to see negative news in the media in relation to tax rises and this infamous 'black hole'. A lot of this will be speculation, but readers might consider making use of their ISAs, as I would not be surprised if they are mentioned in the budget. Inflation remains a problem especially in relation to food prices, so beating inflation with your money should remain a priority.

Risk seems to be increasing and I'm seeing more and more red flags. 

Total: 14 red, 14 black.

• O2 hikes prices mid-contract for 15 million customers , and upto 40% more than they were initially told.

• Nvidia hits new milestone as world's first $5tn company.

• Apple hits $4tn market value.

• S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones all set new all-time highs on the 27th.

• UK productivity downgrade may add £20bn to government budget black hole.

• US inflation hits 3% for the first time since January, due to building pressure from tariffs.

• National living wage to rise by 4% at the budget in November.

• Monthly retail sales hit highest level since 2022.

• UK inflation remains at 3.8% in the year to September.

• Gold tumbles 6% in biggest sell-off since 2013, Fresnillio shares slump 12% (21st October).

• The top 1% account for a third of all UK income tax and capital gains tax according to a new report.

• 'Decade high' number of UK properties for sale, says Rightmove.

• UK government borrowing soars in September (£20.2bn) to the highest level in five years.

• Over half of UK firms would stop hiring if Reeves hikes taxes, survey finds.

• UK economy grows 0.1% in August.

• Retail sales slow in September, rising 2.3%, down from 3.1% in August, as fears about budget increase.

• Average mortgage rates rise for the first time month-on-month since February.

• UK unemployment rate rises slightly at 4.8% in August. Wage rises slow.

• S&P 500 has its worst day since April, dropping 2% over Trumps China tariff speculation.

• Trump threatens China with new tariffs due to export controls by China on raw earth minerals.

• Pubs could stay open longer under new licensing reforms. Cheers to that.

• Business confidence slumps to a 3-year low as tax fears 'quash risk-taking'.

• Bank of England sounds alarm on 'high risk' AI bubble.

• Gold surpasses $4,000 an oz for the first time ever in response to fears about global political instability.

• Brits fear Rachel Reeves' next budget will make them worse off.

• US government goes into shutdown

• Elon Musk (a fellow INTJ) becomes the first half-trillionaire.

• Greggs to raise the prices on their breakfast range.

Summary: We say goodbye to summer with yet more highs on the stock market. The FTSE 100 hit another intraday high on the 22nd August, hitting 9,357 before closing at 9,321. The S&P 500 also closed at a record high of 6,501 on the 28th August. Since then, we are going into September with the FTSE 100 off this high of at least 185 points at the time of writing.

More dark clouds continue to circle the UK economy and with the November budget looming, scare stories are starting to spook the market. September is traditionally a bad month for markets, so maybe this is a month to take a step back and observe for a few weeks. It might be a good time to consider taking some profits.

Total: 15 red, 11 black.

• Energy prices to rise 2% from 1st October 2025

• UK economy grew by a sluggish 0.3% in Q2 2025.

• UK second most at risk from debt crisis of all major economies, only beaten by France.

• British familes saw their incomes drop in real terms by around £1,400 in 2024 due to inflation and fiscal drag.

• Autumn tax hikes would lead to inflation of over 5% in 2026.

• Government approves £2.2bn Gatwick second runway.

• UK government borrowing in August jumps to its highest level in 5 years.

• UK interest rates held at 4%.

• FED cuts rates for first time since December to the lowest since 2022 but warns on the stalling US jobs market.

• UK signs a £31bn "Tech Prosperity Deal" as part of Trumps second state visit to the UK.

• OBR to downgrade productivity for the UK economy.

• UK inflation remains at 3.8% in the year to August.

• S&P 500 closes above 6,600 for the first time.

• State pension likely to rise by 4.7% in April, a rise of more than £500 a year.

• UK unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.7% in July.

• Food inflation to spike as suppliers can 'no longer absorb costs' and could rise to 5.7%.

• Reports suggest there will be no more UK rate cuts until 2026.

• UK sees zero growth in July following a 0.4% rise in June.

• Brits shy away from buying property as uncertainty over property taxes increase.

• Deputy PM Angela Rayner resigns from UK government causing emergency cabinet reshuffle.

• US unemployment rate rises to 4.3% from 4.2%.

• Retail sales volumes rose by 0.6% in July due to sunny weather and the woman's Euro football.

• Bank of England suggest rate cut cycle near the end.

• Autumn Budget set for 26th November as Reeves claims economy "Not working well".

• UK government borrowing costs have reached their highest level since 1998.

• The interest rate on 30-year government bonds reaches 5.698%.

Summary: We move into August with the FTSE 100 ending July peaking at an all-time high of 9,186 before falling back a little. The earnings season in America sees the big companies releasing impressive results, but with Trump still threatening countries with tariffs, could we be seeing a repeat of the market sell-off we saw in April, but on a smaller scale? I'm surprised that we have not seen a bit of profit taking in the markets.

Total: 12 red, 8 black.

• UK bank share prices tumble after calls for tax on profits.

• UK car sales rise to US following tariff deal.

• Energy prices to rise by 2% as part of the recent energy price cap change.

• Food inflation hits 4.2% in the year to August, up from 4%, the highest in 18 months.

• More than half of all UK job loses since the budget have come from the hospitality industry.

• Average UK five-year mortage rate falls below 5% for the first time since May 2023 at 4.99%.

• UK government borrowing was lower than expected in July, following a rise in tax and National Insurance receipts.

• Tesco raises the price of their meal deal from £3.60 to £3.85 in the latest example of food price inflation.

• UK Inflation Rate rises to 3.8%

• UK people buying less fast food as grocery prices remain high.

• US wholesale prices jump in July as tariffs hit as producer prices rise at the fastest rate in three years.

• UK GDP expands 0.3% in Q2, down from 0.7% in Q1.

• Average UK two-year mortgage rate falls below 5% for the first time since 2022, which was the Lizz Truss mini-budget.

• S&P 500 closes at a record high of 6,445 on the 13th August on the hope of FED interest rate cuts.

• UK job openings fell by 5.8% to 718,000 between May and July.

• UK unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.7%.

• Gold hits an intraday futures high on the 8th of August of USD 3,534.20.

• Bank Of  England reduces the base rate to 4%.

• Chancellor to miss borrowing rules and suggestions that the black hole spending deficit will reach £41bn.

• The US announces fresh tariffs on more than 90 countries as the deadline to strike deals passes.

Summary: Labour continue to make a mess of the UK economy with inflation and unemployment both rising, and it seems like the UK is heading for stagflation if not already in it.

'Tariffs' has been the buzzword of the last few months, and it seems trade deals are now being signed, and maybe we are seeing the end of all the uncertainty that it has created, although the impact on inflation has yet to be fully built in.

Total: 6 red, 5 black.

• US economy expanded at an annual rate of 3% in Q2 2025.

• EU and USA agree trade deal, with 15% tariffs for European exports to America.

• UK retail sales rise by 0.9% due to the hottest June on record, but fell short of the expected 1.2%.

• UK and India sign £6bn trade deal.

• Food bills on course to rise by £275 a year as prices jump.

• UK house asking prices see steepest monthly drop in 20 years.

• FTSE 100 finishes above 9000 for the first time ever.

• UK government borrowing  was £20.7bn in June, up £6.6bn from the same month last year.

• UK Base Rate remains at 4.25%

• UK Inflation Rate rises to 3.6%

• UK Unemployment Rate rises to 4.7%