Evidence Based Next Generation EU

How we can help

We develop an evidence-based framework to inform and guide the implementation of Next Generation EU (NGEU) for the successful use of these resources to foster resilience and economic recovery, with particular reference to the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP).

By leveraging evidence-based approaches and robust evaluation methods, we help and enable local and national institutions, policymakers, academics, and citizens to identify what types of intervention should be funded, in which composition and for whom, and with which governance models.

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POLICY TARGETING

Identifying the best recipients and the optimal combination of factors for successful project implementation and achieving specific goals.

GUIDANCE LAB

Translation of scientific evidence into practice, with the provision of a set of actionable configurations for the development of policy pathways.

ABOUT US

Meet the Evidence Based NGEU team, find out and explore our work.

News

Guidelines for the implementation of the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan

📣 Paper Presentation

STARGATE Research Presented at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre Seminar in Seville

11 November 2025 │Seville, Spain

As part of the Best Paper Award received last May at the TEDAM–CPNet Conference in Porto, the STARGATE project was recently showcased at a seminar hosted by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission in Seville.

During the event, Giulia Valeria Sonzogno presented the STARGATE paper “Enhancing Implementation Success in Cohesion Policy (and Next Generation EU): A Machine Learning Approach”, co-authored with Mara Giua and Francesca Micocci.

The presentation offered an opportunity to discuss how data-driven approaches can strengthen public policy implementation at a time when the future of Cohesion Policy and the next EU programming cycle are central to the policy debate.

📣 Paper Presentation

STARGATE Session at the SIE Annual Conference 2025 – Naples, Parthenope University

9–11 October 2025 │ Naples, Italy

At the 66th Annual Scientific Conference of the Italian Economic Association (SIE), hosted by Parthenope University of Naples, a dedicated session was organised around the PRIN STARGATE Project (Strengthening TARgeting and Guidance with Actionable and Timely Evidence for the Implementation of the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan, PRIN 2022).

Chaired by Mara Giua (Roma Tre University) and Augusto Cerqua (Sapienza University of Rome), the session featured contributions from all STARGATE research units, showcasing ongoing advancements in data-driven policy design, implementation, and evaluation, with a specific focus on Cohesion Policy and the governance of public resources.

Researchers from the Roma Tre University team presented two papers addressing implementation capacity and performance.

Francesca Micocci presented Implementation Capacity of Regional Funds: Evidence from Cohesion Policy (co-authored with Mara Giua and Giulia Valeria Sonzogno).
The paper develops a new Index of Cohesion Policy Implementation Capacity (ICCP) to measure municipalities’ ability to manage EU-funded projects using indicators of reporting quality, timeliness, and target completion. The results reveal strong intra-regional disparities and highlight the roles of financial conditions, human capital, and project complexity. The index provides a replicable framework to evaluate and strengthen local implementation capacity.
Giulia Valeria Sonzogno presented Enhancing Implementation Success in Cohesion Policy and Next Generation EU: A Machine Learning Approach (co-authored with Mara Giua and Francesca Micocci).
This study applies advanced machine learning techniques to granular data on more than 600,000 Italian projects (2014–2020), identifying project- and territory-specific drivers of implementation delays and success. The findings yield predictive insights and concrete policy guidance for more effective and timely execution of EU investment programmes.

The Sapienza Research Unit presented two papers on governance, implementation, and territorial dynamics of public policies, combining innovative empirical strategies with policy-relevant questions.

Augusto Cerqua presented Signature Spending Politics (co-authored with Costanza Giannantoni, Marco Letta, and Gabriele Pinto).
Using a natural experiment from Lombardy’s pandemic response, the study employs Large Language Models to analyse thousands of parliamentary documents, uncovering how political actors use discretion over public funds. The results show patterns of pork-barrel spending, cross-party bargaining, and strategic credit claiming aimed at enhancing political visibility and career prospects.
Costanza Giannantoni presented ‘Dead Man Working’: A Place-based Approach to Occupational Safety and Health (co-authored with Augusto Cerqua, Marco Letta, and Gabriele Pinto).
Combining machine learning and spatial analysis, the paper builds a granular risk map of workplace fatalities and compares it with the territorial allocation of inspections and safety incentives. The study reveals significant mismatches between risks and policy actions, showing that AI-powered targeting could meaningfully reduce fatalities while improving policy efficiency.

The papers presented by the Roma Tre and Sapienza research units collectively reflect the policy's contribution of the STARGATE project. By integrating advanced analytical tools with policy-relevant questions, the project contributes to improving the design, governance, and territorial effectiveness of public investments—supporting the broader mission of enhancing implementation capacity and impact within the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan and the Post-27 Cohesion Policy Framework.

📣 Paper Presentation

AISRe Annual Conference 2025 – Pescara

STARGATE Paper presented at the AISRe Annual Conference

10–12 September 2025 │ Pescara, Italy

At the XLVI Annual Scientific Conference of the Italian Regional Science Association (AISRe), held in Pescara from 10 to 12 September 2025, Giulia Valeria Sonzogno (STARGATE Team, Roma Tre University) presented two papers co-authored with Mara Giua and Francesca Micocci: Enhancing Implementation Success in Cohesion Policy and Next Generation EU: A Machine Learning Approach and Implementation Capacity of Cohesion Policy: Evidence from Italy. Both contributions explore key dimensions of EU Cohesion Policy implementation, combining innovative data-driven methodologies with policy-relevant insights.

The first paper investigates how to improve the implementation success of major EU investment programmes by drawing lessons from Cohesion Policy to strengthen the effectiveness of NGEU and Post-27 Cohesion Policy. Using granular data on over 600,000 Italian projects (2014–2020), the study applies Random Forest machine learning algorithms to predict project delays and target failures with over 90% accuracy. The analysis shows that underperformance is not random but systematically linked to project design, governance, and institutional quality, with significant variation across project scale and territorial contexts. The findings provide evidence-based guidance for a more performance-oriented and time-sensitive EU policy framework.

The second paper introduces a novel data-driven Index of Cohesion Policy Implementation Capacity (ICCP) that measures how effectively municipalities manage EU-funded projects. Based on OpenCoesione (2014–2020) microdata, the index combines indicators of reporting quality, timeliness, and target reach to assess administrative performance. Results highlight strong intra-regional heterogeneity, with high- and low-capacity municipalities coexisting within the same regions. Benchmarking against institutional indices (IQI and MAQI) confirms that the ICCP captures a distinct, operational dimension of administrative capacity specific to EU fund management.

Together, these two studies advance a data-driven understanding of how design, governance, and institutional capacity influence the performance of EU Cohesion Policy and NGEU, offering practical insights and analytical tools to enhance the effectiveness and resilience of European public investment.

📣 Paper Presentation

ERSA Annual Conference 2025 – Athens

STARGATE Paper presented at the ERSA Annual Conference

26–29 August 2025 │ Athens, Greece

Giulia Valeria Sonzogno presented the STARGATE paper titled Enhancing Implementation Success in Cohesion Policy and Next Generation EU: A Machine Learning Approach, co-authored with Mara Giua and Francesca Micocci (STARGATE Team at Roma Tre University), at the 64th ERSA Congress – Regional Science in Turbulent Times: In search of a resilient, sustainable and inclusive future, held in Athens, Greece.

The paper investigates how to enhance the implementation success of major EU investment programs by drawing lessons from Cohesion Policy to support the effectiveness of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) initiative and the Post-27 Cohesion Policy. It explores the micro-foundations of Cohesion Policy performance—an area still underexplored despite decades of policy evaluation. While extensive research has examined the role of territorial socio-economic conditions, much less is known about how policy design and delivery mechanisms translate EU objectives into concrete project-level outcomes.

Using granular data on more than 600,000 Italian Cohesion Policy projects (2014–2020), the study reconstructs the architecture of policy implementation and applies Random Forest machine learning algorithms to predict project delays and target failures. The model achieves over 90% predictive accuracy, revealing that underperformance is not random but systematically linked to the way projects are structured and managed.

Findings highlight the importance of project scale, governance structure, beneficiary characteristics, and municipal administrative quality, with marked heterogeneity across Italy’s North–South divide and Project scale. By identifying the mechanisms most strongly associated with implementation success, the paper provides evidence-based insights to strengthen the design, governance, and monitoring of Cohesion Policy and NGEU—supporting a shift toward more performance-oriented, time-sensitive, and resilient EU interventions.

📣 7th Edition of the International School for Advanced Training

“Impact Evaluation of Development Policies: Concepts, Methods, Applications”

June 23rd – July 4th, 2025

Several STARGATE members participated in the 7th edition of the International School for Advanced Training on Impact Evaluation of Development Policies: Concepts, Methods, Applications, organized by the Italian Centre for International Development (ICID) in collaboration with the Rossi-Doria Center.

Augusto Cerqua and Marco Letta contributed both as Faculty members and as part of the 2025 teaching staff. Their involvement enriched the program, which is designed to provide government officials, NGO practitioners, private professionals, researchers, and doctoral students with advanced skills in evaluating development policies and programs.

The School offered a comprehensive curriculum combining lectures, case studies, and practical exercises to equip participants with the methodologies necessary for rigorous impact evaluations, promoting evidence-based approaches in development policy.

For further details on the School’s objectives and structure, visit the ICID website.

📣 7th Edition of the School for Advanced Training

“Evaluation of the Impact of Public Policies: Concepts, Methods and Applications”

June 16–20, 2025 | Rome, Italy

Several STARGATE members took part in the 7th edition of the advanced training school “Evaluation of the Impact of Public Policies: Concepts, Methods and Applications”, held in person from June 16 to 20, 2025, at the School of Economics and Business Studies, Roma Tre University. The School is organized annually by the Rossi-Doria Center in collaboration with the PhD School in Social and Economic Sciences at Sapienza University of Rome. Augusto Cerqua, Mara Giua and Guido Pellegrini were part of the Organizing Committee. Augusto Cerqua and Guido Pellegrini contributed to the teaching team.

The 2025 edition brought together more than 30 researchers, PhDs, doctoral students, private professionals, and public officials with a shared interest in public policy evaluation—particularly industrial and territorial policies. The training aimed to develop professional profiles capable of assessing policy impact comprehensively, by linking evaluation techniques with the specific institutional, social, and economic contexts of the policies being examined.

Further information is available on the Rossi-Doria Center’s website.

📣 Paper Presentation and JRC.REMO Award

RSA Annual Conference 2025 – Porto

STARGATE paper presented at the RSA Annual Conference receives the JRC.REMO Award

6–9 May 2025 | University of Porto

Giulia Valeria Sonzogno presented the STARGATE paper titled “Enhancing Implementation Success in Cohesion Policy and Next Generation EU: A Machine Learning Approach” co-authored with Mara Giua and Francesca Micocci (STARGATE Team at Roma Tre University) at the Regional Studies Association (RSA) Annual Conference 2025 in Porto.

The paper explores how to improve the implementation success of major EU investment programmes—Cohesion Policy and Next Generation EU (NGEU)—by identifying factors that influence project success in terms of outcomes and delays. Using advanced machine learning algorithms and granular data on over 600,000 projects financed during the 2014–2020 programming period in Italy, the research offers predictive insights and policy-oriented guidance for more effective allocation, governance, and monitoring of EU resources. The analysis highlights the role of project-specific and territorial characteristics in shaping implementation performance.

The work received the prestigious JRC.REMO Award, granted by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, in collaboration with the RSA Research Network on Cohesion Policy (CPnet). As part of the award, the research will also be presented at the JRC headquarters in Seville, in a session dedicated to supporting policy design and implementation at the EU level.

The authors thank the session chairs and network organizers—Ida Musiałkowska, Andrea Conte, Anabela Santos, Francesco Molica, and Ugo Fratesi—for their engagement and support in fostering high-level dialogue between academia and policy institutions.

📣 Paper Release

New Working Paper: Governance and the implementation of the EU Cohesion Policy

February 2025

How does governance impact the effectiveness of EU Cohesion Policy? A new working paper by Viviana Celli, Riccardo Crescenzi, Guido de Blasio, and Mara Giua, published in the Geography and Environment Discussion Paper Series at the London School of Economics and Political Science, sheds light on this crucial question.

The study leverages a quasi-natural experiment in Italy, where certain projects were reassigned from EU to national management, providing a unique opportunity to assess the role of governance structures in financial execution. Using an advanced difference-in-differences approach, the authors find that projects managed under EU governance outperform those shifted to national control, particularly at the sub-national level. Within just ten months, financial execution slows significantly under national management, with delays reaching nearly 20% after two years.

These findings offer important insights for policymakers, emphasizing the risks associated with fragmented governance structures and the potential benefits of centralized coordination in managing public investments. The paper contributes to broader debates on multi-level governance and policy effectiveness, providing empirical evidence on the implementation challenges of EU-funded projects.

🔎 Read the full working paper: [LSE Geography and Environment Discussion Paper Series – Paper No. 50]

IAERE Thirteenth Annual Conference 2025

20 - 21 February 2025

Giulia Valeria Sonzogno presented her STARGATE paper titled "The geography of the green transition: big promises, uneven outcomes" co-authored with Giulio Breglia (Gran Sasso Science Institute) at the IAERE Thirteenth Annual Conference 2025 held at the University of Roma Tre.

Program

Guest Lectures on Regional Development Organized at Roma Tre University

29 November - 2 December 2024

As part of the STARGATE project, in collaboration with the Centro Rossi-Doria and within the course "Local Economies in a Globalized World" at the Department of Economics of Roma Tre University, two guest lectures were held.

On November 29th, Professor Riccardo Crescenzi (London School of Economics) delivered a lecture titled "Global Value Chains and Regional Development."
On December 2nd, Professor Paolo Veneri (Gran Sasso Science Institute) presented a lecture titled "Urbanisation, Suburbanisation and Regional Development: Definitions, Trends and Stylised Facts."

These lectures provided valuable insights into key topics shaping the interplay between global and regional dynamics.

Book Presentation - Regional Policy: Theory and Practice by Ugo Fratesi

25 November 2024

As part of the STARGATE project, the book "Regional Policy: Theory and Practice" by Professor Ugo Fratesi was presented at the Department of Economics of Roma Tre University, in collaboration with the Centro Rossi-Doria.

The book provides a comprehensive overview of regional policy, from its objectives and implementation tools to methods for evaluation and real-world applications across different contexts. Featuring practical examples and advanced topics, it is an essential resource for students, researchers, and professionals in regional economics, public policy, and planning.

Program

ℹ️ Guidance -Lab Release

Institutional Quality & Capacity

23 October 2024

A new card from the Guidance Lab focusing on institutional quality has been released!

Institutional quality plays a crucial role in fostering economic development by providing a stable legal and regulatory framework, protecting property rights, and ensuring efficient governance. High-quality institutions, especially at the local level, are key to the success of policies like the EU Cohesion Policy and Next Generation EU. This Card highlights how improving institutional quality is crucial to better public fund management, to reduce corruption, and to minimize regional disparities, thereby enhancing economic resilience and competitiveness across Italy.

RSA Winter Conference 2024

7-8 November 2024

Giulia Valeria Sonzogno presented her STARGATE working paper titled "Beyond Next Generation EU: Tackling Left-behindness via Learning by Doing 'Together'" at the RSA Winter Conference 2024. The event, themed "Driving Regions Forward: Transitioning to Brighter Regional Futures," was organized by the Regional Studies Association and took place in London.

Program

📣 Paper Release

Femicides, Anti-Violence Centers, and Public Salience: A Territorial Approach

24 July 2024

To effectively tackle gender-based violence, a better understanding of territorial patterns and the roles of public policies and media is needed. This paper applies machine learning techniques to a newly constructed dataset on Italian femicides and anti-violence centers at the municipal level, identifying the riskiest geographical areas for women. Furthermore, we assess the impact of anti-violence centers on various aspects of gendered violence by exploiting their staggered opening timings. Finally, we evaluate the role of public media salience in triggering help-seeking behaviors.

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