2.2. Problem Analysis: Tools

What are some useful tools for understanding the root causes of environmental conflict?

Module Overview:

Problem analysis is about understanding the broader context of an undesirable situation, breaking down issues into manageable parts to understand fundamental concerns and inform intervention. The tools presented in this module are common techniques for problem analysis.

It is important to remember that these are some of many tools for problem analysis, and you should think about which tool(s) are most useful for you and your context. For community-engaged projects, it can be a good idea to use several different tools with different groups, conducting a broader problem analysis to spotlight different issues, before moving to solution identification and program design. See Modules 2.3 and 2.4 for worksheets and facilitation techniques.

Module Objectives:

- recognise Problem Trees as a particularly common tool for problem analysis
- understand different forms of Conflict Timelines
- explain why Dividers and Connectors are useful categories
- describe the value of Seasonal Calendars for understanding cyclical fluctuations in environmentally related conflict stressors
- appreciate the use of Linkage Charts to illustrate complex relationships

Problem Tree

WHAT IS A PROBLEM TREE?

Problem trees are a tool for discerning the origins and impacts of a situation. They allow us to consider the bigger ecosystem of an identified area of concern.

A core problem becomes the ‘trunk’ of a tree. Various causes and consequences are then drawn as roots and branches on the tree, quickly creating a graphical representation of structural contexts and assorted outcomes.

Simple problem trees can be sketched quickly on a flowchart or worksheet, and can visually look like an actual tree with brief phrases to denote the problem, its causes, and its effects. More complex problem trees can take the form of flowcharts, with short paragraphs that more fully explain situations and causal mechanisms.

WHY CREATE A PROBLEM TREE?

Problem trees are visually simple. They allow you to start with an ‘obvious’ issue, and then prompt you to consider more systemic, root causes of the problem as well as various outcomes. Problem trees effectively showcase how groups of causes and effects can funnel into and from a core concern. By doing so, problem trees provide an easy-to-understand method for untangling complexity, and can point you toward a variety of potential solutions (see Unit 3).

WHAT ARE SOME LIMITATIONS OF A PROBLEM TREE?

The simplicity of problem trees can be a disadvantage: Because problems trees do not account for multidirectionality or feedback loops, they reduce the true intricacies of cause-and-effect situations. When not combined with other tools or nuance, the simplicity of problem trees could obstruct thinking about the unintended consequences of an intervention.

Example Problem Tree (Simple):
A Problem Tree for Climate Migration (see Case Study 1)

Example Problem Tree (Complex):
A Summary of the EU-UNEP Climate, Peace and Security Partnership’s perspective on the peace and security risks associated with climate change.

Conflict Timeline

WHAT IS A CONFLICT TIMELINE?

Conflict timelines are chronological summaries of the key events in a conflict context. They provide a quick and easily understood summary of a situation, whether historic or ongoing.

The horizontal axis represents time, and might indicate specific dates for a real-world scenario, or more generically denote the passage of time for a hypothetical case study.

A basic conflict timeline can have just one vertical line, with all events plotted simply against time. More complex conflict timelines can use the y-axis to plot a chosen factor against the progression of time, with events used to annotate the chart. This might be the intensity of the conflict, as measured by a proxy factor such as the number of fatalities, or another element, such as scale or location. Two-dimensional conflict timelines take more time to create and read, but provide more information.

WHY CREATE A CONFLICT TIMELINE?

Conflict timelines serve to illustrate how a conflict has changed over time. For prolonged conflicts, a timeline can be useful in identifying the factors that lead to heightened tensions – which could assist with incident prediction and inform future peacebuilding actions.

One of the greatest advantages of a conflict timeline is its flexibility, as any number of factors can be analysed using the y-axis. A timeline also allows for events taking place on various scales: Local conflict might be shaped by international policy or a change of national government.

WHAT ARE SOME LIMITATIONS OF A CONFLICT TIMELINE?

Like all problem analysis tools, a conflict timeline is dependent on the situational awareness of its creator(s). Understanding the conflict context well enough to include all of the most relevant events on a timeline is a challenge – and different actors will often have different beliefs about which events are ‘key’. In analytical usage, excluding or overlooking an event may lead to misunderstandings about the conflict, or hinder solution identification. If publicly displayed, which events are and are not included will often be politicised by various audiences.

Example Conflict Timeline (Simple)
A Timeline of Armed Groups (see Case Study 3)

Want another example?

see more about complex conflict timelines on page 40 of the Addressing Climate-related Security Risks: Conflict Sensitivity for Climate Change Adaptation and Sustainable Livelihoods Toolbox

Example Conflict Timeline (Complex)
A Scalar Timeline of Armed Groups illustrating the interplay between local, regional, national, and international actors and events
(see Case Study 3)

Connectors and Dividers Table

WHAT IS A CONNECTORS AND DIVIDERS TABLE?

Connectors and dividers tables list the social, political, environmental, and economic factors that influence (or could influence) a conflict context. Connectors are elements that can have a positive or ‘bridging’ effect on community groups, such as shared values, sport, and traditional leaders. Dividers can contribute to tensions in society, and might include patterns like inequality, linguistic diversity, and political partisanship.

WHY CREATE A CONNECTORS AND DIVIDERS TABLE?

A connectors and dividers table helps to put a conflict setting into broader context, encouraging analysis to look beyond the ‘obvious’ factors and actors to consider other elements at play. Thinking about social, political, environmental, and economic forces as connectors and dividers can help you consider the positive and negative potentials of a particular element, rather than assuming a singular impact or outcome.

A connectors and dividers table will be particularly useful in combination with another problem analysis tool, when it can serve as a brainstorming method to highlight additional elements that should be incorporated in the other analysis. Being aware of connectors will be useful for solution identification (see Module 3), while understanding the dividers is critical to ensuring a ‘do no harm’ approach and not inadvertently exacerbating a problem.

WHAT ARE SOME LIMITATIONS OF A CONNECTORS AND DIVIDERS TABLE?

It’s important to bear in mind that connectors and dividers are not universal; a force that is a connector in one conflict context might be a divider in another, and vice versa. A connectors and dividers table can quickly become problematic when taken out of context or if it is not regularly reviewed. It’s also important to know that connectors are not automatically a ‘silver bullet’, nor are dividers an inevitable danger; rather, these are a range of factors that influence a bigger picture.

Example Connectors and Dividers Table
Social, Political, Environmental, and Economic Factors influencing Community Tensions amidst Climate Change (see Case Study 4)

Want another example?

see more about connectors and dividers on page 40 of the Addressing Climate-related Security Risks: Conflict Sensitivity for Climate Change Adaptation and Sustainable Livelihoods Toolbox

Seasonal Calendar

WHAT IS A SEASONAL CALENDAR?

A seasonal calendar traces the evolution of a socioenvironmental system through a specific cycle. The chosen cycle is often a calendar year marked by natural seasons, but a different unit of time may be more relevant: the fiscal calendar of a major employer in the area, for example, or the reproductive pattern of a key species.

Seasonal calendars collate information about how factors such as labour patterns, ecosystem service use, and resource availability shift in predictable ways over time. Socioeconomic, political, and environmental factors can all be included.

WHY CREATE A SEASONAL CALENDAR?

Seasonal calendars provide insight into how livelihood security, environmental stressors, and conflict drivers may wax and wane over time, in response to structural shifts.

Understanding how various dynamics change can help identify which areas of concern for a community may be temporary, which are likely to return regularly, and which are systemic.

Using data from a seasonal calendar, you may be able to draw connections between shifts in environmental stressors and spikes in conflict around the area; understanding these connections can help suggest which mitigating actions may help prevent motivations for conflict.

A seasonal calendar will be useful to draw on during the Solution Identification stage, as it can help showcase existing coping strategies, and in Program Design and Project Implementation, as it identifies particularly busy and flexible periods of the year for various parts of a community - necessary to consider when planning participatory action.

WHAT ARE SOME LIMITATIONS OF A SEASONAL CALENDAR?

Seasonal calendars are based on existing knowledge and previous conditions. Climate change and conflict both introduce greater degrees of uncertainty into socioenvironmental systems, making seasonal fluctuations harder to accurately predict. Increased temperatures may mean that farmers need to spend more time caring for crops during what would usually be a fairly relaxed period for them; armed groups may destroy a factory and remove a key source of seasonal work for the community. It is important to understand how a community changes seasonally, but equally important to realise that a seasonal calendar analysis is not a guarantee of what will be happening when.

Linkage Chart

WHAT IS A LINKAGE CHART?

Linkage charts visually showcase the interactions and relationships between various actors, aspects, and events in a conflict setting. A range of existing environmental (e.g., drought), socioeconomic (e.g., livelihood insecurity), and conflict/security (e.g., armed violence) factors are drawn in scattered squares. Arrows are then drawn between the tiles, indicating the direction(s) of causal connections. Feedback loops can be delineated by dotted lines.

WHY CREATE A LINKAGE CHART?

Linkage charts are particularly flexible in permitting any range of complexity to be charted in one graphic. Where a basic problem tree has just three tiers, a linkage chart might have any number of cause-and-effect interactions and downstream impacts. Crucially, linkage charts are able to visualise multidirectional relationships. Factors might be the effect of one thing, the cause of another, and – through a feedback loop – an effect of that same consequence.

A linkage chart is also an especially helpful tool for solution identification, as it encourages brainstorming around which relational links can be ‘cut’, disrupted, or altered through various interventions.

WHAT ARE SOME LIMITATIONS OF A LINKAGE CHART?

One of the greatest strengths of a linkage chart – its focus on nuance and multidirectional relationships – is also one of its greatest weaknesses. Given their relative complexity, a linkage chart may not be easily understood without additional explanation and/or annotation. They are best used for internal analysis and/or as a graphical ‘abstract’ of a qualitative case study.

Example Linkage Chart
Gendered Impacts of Climate Change (see Case Study 2)

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