The relationships between climate, peace, and security are complicated. They can perhaps best be thought of as a web: a collection of many strands that overlap and are interconnected at various loci. Pulling on any piece of the web will have knock-on effects on other parts of it, and those reverberations can be difficult to predict or trace. Highlighted below are a few important things to remember about these connections, and additional examples of how communities are experiencing these links.
These connections can be simple or complex.
Climate change puts pressure on agricultural systems and global food security. This is a fairly straightforward causal relationship. Less straightforward is the way that the resulting strain on food supplies interacts with preexisting identity conflicts, economic class divides, and gender roles. Also less-than-straightforward is assigning responsibility for the international system of human infrastructure that is causing anthropogenic climate change.
These connections are multi-directional.
Climate change impacts peace and security; peace and security impact climate change. Climate change is generally thought of as a threat to global peace and security - and while the challenges and risks presented by climate change are of great concern, it’s worth acknowledging their relationship-building potential. Globally, countries that would otherwise have very sparse diplomatic relations meet to negotiate as part of the UNFCCC. Partnering on climate action can, in turn, lead to greater trust between both governments and peoples.
These connections often result in feedback loops.
Imagine a community living near a forest that is reliant on that forest for food. When a climate change-induced drought reduces the forest’s productivity, the community becomes food insecure. The resulting instability creates interpersonal conflict between households in the village. Because of these intergroup tensions, the community is less readily able to collaborate on a water-saving project suggested by a local NGO. Without climate action, the drought worsens - and so does food insecurity and local conflict, creating a vicious cycle.
However, the story above isn’t inevitable. These connections might be positive or negative (or both). Though a climate change-induced drought might be a contributing factor to rising tensions between two communities when both feel water-stressed, that same drought could also be the impetus for two conflicting tribes to come together and collaborate on shared resource management.
These connections do not play out in the same way at every scale.
An intervention meant to positively support climate adaptation at the national level (e.g. the construction of a dam to produce hydropower and reduce the country’s dependence on petrol) might negatively affect people’s livelihoods at the local level (e.g. if one or more communities are displaced by the dam’s construction).
These connections have unequal impacts on various actors.
In the scenario above, some communities were harmed while the overall country benefitted. In another situation, military violence might lead to environmental devastation in a particular region where the fighting takes place, as gunfire, bombing, and landmines destroy land and reduce biodiversity. But that same fighting might also disrupt a mining company’s nearby operations – reducing fossil fuel extraction and allowing land to recover in that area. Such is the reality of a complex ecosystem.
Whether a climate-peace-security connection has positive or negative impacts – and for whom – can be dramatically affected by social and political responses.
A tropical storm might damage critical urban infrastructure, creating instability in the country. But intergovernmental collaboration – through, for instance, environmental data-sharing – can support early warning systems, allowing the country to prepare in time for the storm and reducing the likelihood of conflict.
Together, these realities about the complexities of the Climate, Peace, and Security nexus mean that it is critically important to adopt a nuanced, participatory approach to climate adaptation, environmental management, and peacebuilding initiatives. A participatory approach enables us to gather diverse perspectives and understand the multiple impacts an intervention might have, enabling us to make the most of potential positive outcomes and minimise any unintended negative effects.
