1. Not mine own fears, nor the prophetic soul,

2. Of the wide world, dreaming on things to come,

3. Can yet the lease of my true love control,

4. Supposed as forfeit to a confined doom.

5. The mortal Moon hath her eclipse endured,

6. And the sad augurs mock their own presage,

7. Incertainties now crown themselves assured,

8. And peace proclaims Olives of endless age.

9. Now with the drops of this most balmy time,

10. My love looks fresh, and death to me subscribes,

11. Since spite of him, I'll live in this poor rhyme,

12. While he insults ore dull and speechless tribes.

13. And thou in this shalt find thy monument,

14. When tyrants' crests and tombs of brass are spent.

Tombs Spent

Dedication: To Elizabeth

Explaining to Elizabeth that none of the powers of hope of either himself or the world waiting for her heir can seem to control her. That thus Henry is forfeited to a "confined doom". That she the "mortal moon" has seen that she will not be overshadowed by her young son. Finishing with an appeal that Henry and the continuation of her line with still be her monument when material tombs are long weathered and consumed.

1^st Quatrain: (1-4)

He reflects on the supposed inability to affect Elizabeth to make her change her course in this decision. From line 3, Elizabeth is his true love. In line 4, the “confined doom’ is Henry’s fate.

2^nd Quatrain: (5-8)

The “sad augurs” mocking “their own presage” in line 6, comments on how the officials of believe Henry is not to be recognized. The “Incertainteies” in line 7, refer to several other claimants to the throne, both Mary (Queen of Scots) and James (Mary’s son) are alive at this time pre 1578 as we’ll see.

3rd Quatrain: (9-12)

Line 10 comments on how well Elizabeth seems to going with respect to longevity while this ordeal is taking its toll on him. In line 11 he comments sadly that Henry may only live in this “poor” poem.

couplet (13-14),

Finishes by saying that this poem and Henry’s legacy may still outlive the physical monuments. Of course he was right.

Commentary:

Expressing that Elizabeth despite himself or the waiting world, can control or alter Elizabeth’s course and thus demonstrating her independence and self will. This sonnet famously speaks of those who have claims to the English throne thinking that they are assured it. This for one speaks of Elizabeth’s now past child bearing age but also clearly that no heir to her exists. While the Mortal Moon is frequently understood as Elizabeth the eclipse of Henry is an apt analogy in the sense of his very temporary status before his identity was changed. And something which is again completely misunderstood by orthodoxy.

The reference to Henry as "supposed" "forfeit" to a "confined doom" at least reveals an assumption that Oxford is probably likely not really ready to admit though here clearly does. Sonnets to come clearly reveal that Oxford still expresses his own hope for Henry’s recognition. The talk what is being forfeited to a “confined doom” is very much clearer with regard to child that exists and continues the argument of renewal in a much clearer fashion. The supposition of the child's doom while Elizabeth's monument and his everlasting legacy in his poetry fits the story as told by the interpretation presented. The reflection of Elizabeth continuing on as the poet feels age striking him down. This reflects Oxford feeling his own relatively early decline.

This sonnet interestingly enough contains the first instance of them recording Oxford’s immortality. As mentioned previously, Oxford probably had a sense that these poems were potentially for a wider audience but now that he feels a sense of hopelessness he seems to be announcing his intention to make them public to Elizabeth. While in a traditional paradigm no such motivation exists. I question though at this point if Oxford had a sense about all his poetry immortalizing either himself or Henry at this point, perhaps he merely thought that this specific poem would be understood as of course in some sense it is.

This sonnet is frequently dated after the Armada but the plural of the "incertainties" should perhaps speak to Mary Queen of Scots still alive at this time.

The "sad augurs" of line 6 is possibly a figurative reference to officials not necessarily religious ones specifically. Shakespeare only uses the word a single other time in Macbeth (III, iv), which seems to suggest religious officials but which is also somewhat ambiguous. But perhaps there were sermons celebrating Elizabeth's virginity and comparisons to the Virgin Mary and allusions to succession.

Line 9 is apparently a figurative reference to sweat and its proclamation of weariness especially in regard to the figurative warm weather mentioned. But it is interesting that Shakespeare also has a sexual connotation associated with the sweat of lovers as drops in King Henry IV, part II (IV, iii). Perhaps this was an intentional reminder of steamier times.

Line 11 is arguably quite important in the suggestion that the poet is hidden but for his rhyme. But equally important is the "him" which is hardly reflected by the preceding references. It is I would argue clear the he/it that created the brief "eclipse" of the "mortal moon". But this he should again be obvious as a reference to the son.

Line 12 again reflects the cognitive orientation of the poet in revealing that it is actually lineage that suggests our past lives and heritage and not the physical entities we leave.

Despite a long commentary Vendler completely ducks any mention that the mortal moon is Elizabeth I. While it might be somewhat surprising that this sonnet should appear so early, it should not be difficult to understand the nature of this sonnet in the context presented here. While it is not clear to me if Oxford was in such a low moment and really felt so helpless. I suspect he did as the ordeal of the treatment of Henry took an enormous toll on him. However I feel very certain that even if he didn’t actually feel the hopelessness expressed, he very much wanted to convey it for dramatic effect in the hope that it would impact Elizabeth. Also interesting is that Oxford’s low appears to be not just mentally but apparently physically as well as in the mention of death to me subscribes. Again I’m not certain how true it is but it seems likely a relative comparison to the health of Elizabeth compared to how Oxford was now aging.

Note:

I perhaps should mention Elizabeth's supposed chaste was certainly recognized as the official version of things, she is certainly long known to have had many "favorites" and many historians have little doubt that she had many lovers.