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We live in times of uncertainty, complexity and fast changes. Nobody can predict the future, yet we need to understand the future, as investments, company strategies or policies will play out in that (sometimes even distant) future. So if predictions are useless, shall we just wait and see what happens, or is there something else we can do?
In fact there is. Scenario planning is a methodology that helps you to scan the environment and better understand the forces that are shaping the future.
In scenario planning, you don't consider one future, but rather a set of diverging scenarios that each represent a future context that is relevant, plausible and completely different. Against the background of these scenarios, a strategy is created with robust, call and put options, that offer the flexibility to adequately and quickly respond to a changing context.
November 2018 (Angola)
ESSET has delivered an intense 5-day in-house course on scenario planning for the oil and gas industry. We've been scanning the forces that are shaping the future context, have created scenario frameworks for 2030 and analysed the implications for the company strategy.
A great team of participants - a room filled with Energy!
Scenario planning for company use has been developed by Shell who used it to great benefit during the first oil crisis (1973). Ever since, the methodology has been gaining popularity and relevance.
ESSET consultants have been building experience with scenario planning for more than 20 years - in all sorts of settings, sectors, and for various purposes (company strategy, policy making, exploration of the consequences of climate change,...). They master the methodology, design and facilitate the participatory processes, and help the customer interpret the outcomes and next steps. ESSET has been giving advanced management courses on this fascinating methodology that allows customers to explore the future. 'Mindblowing experience' is a comment we received from a customer during a recent assignment.
Examples of scenario trajectories in which ESSET consultants participated:
- Scenarios for customer in oil and gas industry
- Scenarios for ICT customer
- Scenarios for customer in food industry
- Scenarios for Burundi
- Scenarios on high-end climate change (2100) - FP7 project IMPRESSIONS with scenarios for Central-Asia, Europe, Scotland and municipalities in Hungary
- Scenarios on climate change - FP7 project CLIMSAVE with scenarios for Europe as well as Scotland
- Scenarios on food and nutrition security - FP7 project FOODSECURE
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