English

Curriculum Vitae

Enrique Martínez García

International Group Head

Economic Policy Advisor

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Contact Information

• Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

  • Research Department, 12th Floor

  • 2200 N. Pearl Street

  • Dallas, TX 75201

  • United States

• E-mail: emg.economics@gmail.com

• Official E-mail: enrique.martinez-garcia@dal.frb.org

• Webpage: https://sites.google.com/view/emgeconomics/

• Department Webpage: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economists/martinez-garcia

• Phone: (+1) 214-922-5262

• Fax: (+1) 214-922-5194

Biographical

• Citizenship: Spain and U.S. (Dual Citizenship)

• Language: Spanish and Valenciano (Native) / English (Fluent)

Fields of Interest

• Major Fields: International Macroeconomics (Open Economy Macroeconomics) and Finance, Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Applied Econometrics

• Minor Fields: Financial Stability, Asset Pricing, Real Estate Economics, Macroeconomic Forecasting, Stochastic Optimal Control and Mathematical Economics 

Education

• University of Wisconsin–Madison, PhD in Economics, 2007

  • Doctoral Dissertation: Martínez García, E. (2007), Three  Essays in International Macroeconomics and Finance. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Wisconsin-Madison

  • Chair: Dr. Rodolfo Manuelli

  • Committee Members: Dr. Charles Engel, Dr. Kenneth D. West, Dr. Menzie D. Chinn, Dr. David P. Brown (Finance Department, external)

• University of Wisconsin–Madison, M.Sc. in Economics, 2004

• University of Pennsylvania, MA in Economics, 2002

• University of Alicante, BA in Economics (with honors), 2000

  • The degree of Licenciado en Economía granted by the University of Alicante has been placed within level 3 (Master) of the Spanish Higher Education Qualifications Framework (MECES) and within level 7 of the European Qualifications Framework (EQF)

• Other Training Courses: Northwestern University, Advanced Workshop for Central Bankers, 2008

Work Experience

• Head of International Group and Economic Policy Advisor, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, May 2024–present

• Economic Policy Advisor, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, January 2024–April 2024

• Senior Research Economist and Advisor, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, January 2016–December 2023

• Co-director of the International Housing Observatory, March 2019-present

• Lead Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' International House Price Database and the Database of Global Economic Indicators, January 2011-present

• Senior Research Economist, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, August 2010–December 2015

• Economist, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, July 2007–August 2010

• Adjunct Professor, Southern Methodist University, Monetary Theory and Policy (PhD course), Spring 2010, Spring 2013, Fall 2014, Spring 2015, and Spring 2016

• Visiting Assistant Professor, University of Texas at Austin, Macroeconomics II (PhD course) and Macroeconomic Theory (undergrad course), Spring 2012

• Invited Professor, University of Alicante, Globalization and Monetary Policy (graduate-level mini-course), December 2007 and December 2008

Other Professional Experience

• Member of the Organizing Committee of the 2nd CEMLA/Dallas Fed Financial Stability Workshop, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas (Texas, USA), November 30-December 1, 2023

• Member of the Scientific Committee of the 29th International Conference Computing in Economics and Finance, Université Côte d’Azur, Nice (France), July 3-6, 2023

• Member of the Scientific Committee of the Fall 2022 Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings (MMM), Southern Methodist University, Dallas (Texas), November 11-13, 2022 

• Co-chair Local Organizing Committee, 28th International Conference Computing in Economics and Finance, Southern Methodist University-Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas (Texas), June 17-19, 2022

• Guest Editor, Special Issue of the ECONOMÍA Journal: Recent Developments in Inflation Dynamics (July 2022)

• Member of the Scientific Committee of the 2021 Annual Meetings of the International Finance and Banking Society (IFABS), Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, September 13-15, 2021

• Parish Council Member, St. Peter the Apostle Roman Catholic Church, Dallas, Texas, November 2021-present

• Advisory Council Member of the Society for Computational Economics (SCE), June 2018–June 2021

• Fellow at the Research Centre for Financial Econometrics, Asset Markets and Macroeconomic Policy (EMP) of Lancaster University Management School, March 2017-present

• Member of the Scientific Committee of the 27th Annual Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (SNDE), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, March 28-29, 2019

• Member of the Scientific Committee of the 2017 Annual Meetings of the Spanish Economics Association, Barcelona GSE, December 14-16, 2017

• Dissertation Defense Committee Member (External): Stefan Avdjiev (PhD, 2009, SMU), Jim Cooley (PhD, 2010, SMU), Ayse Kabukcuoglu (PhD, 2013, UT-Austin), Florian Kuhn (PhD, 2015, UT-Austin), Seung Suk Le (PhD, 2016, SMU), Di Yu (PhD, 2016, SMU), Mariam Kharaishvili (PhD, 2017, SMU), Ruiyang Hu (PhD, 2018, SMU), Andrés Giraldo Palomino (PhD, 2018, SMU), Zhengyang (Robin) Chen (PhD, 2020, UT-Dallas), Igor Zhadan (PhD, 2020, SMU), Luis Fernando Colunga-Ramos (PhD, 2021, UT-Dallas), Benjamin Finch (PhD, 2022, Lancaster University)

• Teaching Assistant, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Microeconomics (graduate-level course), September 2004–December 2004

• Project Assistant, Center for World Affairs and the Global Economy (WAGE), University of Wisconsin–Madison, September 2006–June 2007

• PhD Intern, Bank of England, Monetary Analysis Division, June 2005–August 2005

• Project Assistant, University of Wisconsin–Madison, January 2005–May 2005, September 2005–June 2006

• Research Assistant, University of Alicante, September 1999–June 2000

Honors and Awards

• 2024 Outstanding Alumni Ambassador, University of Alicante, May 16, 2024 (video of the award ceremony; highlights here and here)

• 2023 IFABS Best Social Media Award, Oxford University, United Kingdom, 2023

• 2023 Central Banking Award in Economics, London, United Kingdom, 2023

• Award Alumni UA, Social Council of the University of Alicante, Spain, 2017

• Bank of Spain Graduate Fellowship, 2000–04

• Harold Groves Economics Prize for Research in Quantitative Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin–Madison, 2003–04

• Premio extraordinario de Licenciatura, Merit-Based Award from the University of Alicante, 2000

• Premio extraordinario al Rendimiento Académico, Merit-Based Award from the Regional Government of Valencia, Spain, 2000

• Segundo Premio Nacional de Fin de Carrera en Economía, Second-Place National Award in Economics (BA), Ministry of Education and Culture, Spain, 2000

Professional Affiliations

• Econometric Society

• American Economic Association

• European Economic Association

• Spanish Economic Association

• Western Economic Association International

• Southern Economic Association

• AREUEA - The American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

• SCE - Society for Computational Economics

• CEBRA - Central Bank Research Association

• CEPR - Centre for Economic Policy Research

• CREDO - Catholic Research Economists Discussion Organization

• IBEFA - International Banking, Economics and Finance Association

Research Publications

Refereed Journals

• "Forecasting Inflation in Open Economies: What Can a NOEM Model Do?" (with Roberto Duncan), Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 42 (3), pp. 481–513, March 2023. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 235, April 2015 (Revised: December 2022) 

  • This paper also circulated as: "Forecasting Local Inflation with Global Inflation: When Economic Theory Meets the Facts" (with Roberto Duncan), Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 235, April 2015 

  • A background paper with supplementary materials appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 235a, December 2022

  • Data and Codes

• "The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model" (with Stephen J. Cole), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 27 (2), 532-570, March 2023. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 375, November 2019 (Revision: March 2021)

  • Video presentation of the paper 'The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model', Ft. Lauderdale (FL), November 29, 2019

  • Data and Codes

• "Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing?" (with Jarod Coulter and Roberto Duncan), Economía, Vol. 45 (89), pp. 102-149, August 2022. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 417, July 2022 

  • Data and Codes

  • "Introduction to Special Issue 2022-1: Recent Developments in Inflation Dynamics" (with Roberto Duncan), Economía, Vol. 45(89), August 2022.

• "El valor económico del español en Estados Unidos: Oportunidades y retos para el futuro" (with María Teresa Martínez-García), Estudios del Observatorio / Observatorio Studies, 78, pp. 1-50, June 28, 2022.

  • "The Economic Value of Spanish in the United States: Opportunities and Challenges for the Future" (with María Teresa Martínez-García), Estudios del Observatorio / Observatorio Studies, 78, pp. 1-48, June 28, 2022.

• "exuber: Recursive Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing with R" (with Kostas Vasilopoulos and Efthymios Pavlidis), Journal of Statistical Software, Vol. 103(10), pp. 1-26, 2022. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 383, May 2020 (Revision: October 2021) 

  • Software: exuber: Econometric Analysis of Explosive Time Series (R package with Kostas Vasilopoulos and Efthymios Pavlidis) and intro to exuber (with Kostas Vasilopoulos, Efthymios Pavlidis, and Simon Spavound)

• "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis" (with Dario Caldara, Etienne Gagnon, and Christopher J. Neely), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol. 103(4), Fourth Quarter 2021, pp. 425-460. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 397, August 2020

  • This paper also circulated as: "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis" (with Dario Caldara, Etienne Gagnon, and Christopher J. Neely), Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-065. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve 

  • The analysis in this paper was presented to the Federal Open Market Committee as background for its discussion of the Federal Reserve’s review of monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. The Committee discussed issues related to the review at five consecutive meetings from July 2019 to January 2020. References to the FOMC’s current framework for monetary policy refer to the framework articulated in the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy first issued in January 2012 and reaffirmed each January, most recently in January 2019. The conclusions and revision to the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Framework were announced by Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 26, 2020: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm 

  • Related blog post: "Fed’s New Inflation Targeting Policy Seeks to Maintain Well-Anchored Expectations" (with Jarod Coulter and Valerie Grossman), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, April 6, 2021

    • Dataset Files

    • Slides and video from the presentation at the Dallas Fed's 2021 Summer Professional Development conference (June 24, 2021)

• "In No Uncertain Terms: The Effect of Uncertainty on Credit Frictions and Monetary Policy" (with Nathan S. Balke and Zheng Zeng), Economic Modelling, Vol. 100, July 2021. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 317, June 2017 (Revised: February 2021) 

  • A background paper with supplementary materials appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 317a, June 2017 (Revised: February 2021)

  • "Policymakers’ Response to COVID-19 Can Draw on Great Recession Lessons" (with Jarod Coulter), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, July 7, 2020

  • An article that covers this research: "Credit Market Frictions, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy: The Research Contributions of Charles Carlstrom and Timothy Fuerst" (by Todd Clark, Matthias Paustian, and Eric Sims), Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), March 25, 2020

  • Data and Codes

• "Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest," Economic Modelling, Vol. 100, July 2021. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 403, October 2020 (Revised: February 2021)

  • A background paper with the derivations of the model and supplementary results appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 403app, October 2020 (Revised: February 2021)

  • Data and Replication Files

• "Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies" (with Valerie Grossman, Mark A. Wynne, and Ren Zhang), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 113, May 2021 (lead article in this issue, available online since January 2, 2021). A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 359, April 2019 (Revised: March 2021)

  • Video presentation of the paper 'Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies', Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, April 24, 2019

  • Data and Codes

• "A Generalized Time Iteration Method for Solving Dynamic Optimization Problems with Occasionally Binding Constraints" (with Ayse Kabukcuoglu Dur), Computational Economics, Vol.  58(2), pp. 435-460, 2021. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 396, August 2020

  • An earlier version of this paper circulated as: "The Market Resources Method for Solving Dynamic Optimization Problems" (with Ayse Kabukcuoglu), Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 274, June 2016 

  • Files and Codes

• "Mind the Gap!—A Monetarist View of the Open-Economy Phillips Curve" (with Ayse Kabukcuoglu Dur), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 117, 2020. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 392, June 2020

  • A background paper with the derivations of the model and supplementary results appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 392app, June 2020

  • An earlier version of this paper circulated as: "What Helps Forecast U.S. Inflation? - Mind the Gap!" (with Ayse Kabukcuoglu), Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers No. 1615, December 2016 

  • Dataset Files and Codes

• "Explosive Dynamics in House Prices? An Exploration of Financial Market Spillovers in Housing Markets Around the World" (with Valerie Grossman), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 101(March), 2020. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 342, July 2018 (Revised September 2018)

  • Presentation Slides and Short Video

  • Dataset Files and Codes

  • Read coverage of this work from the Wall Street Journal (January 27, 2020) 

• "Drilling Down: The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Housing Prices" (with Valerie Grossman, Luis Bernardo Torres, and Yongzhi Sun), The Energy Journal, Vol. 40(SI1), 2019. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 369, September 2019

  • Dataset Files and Codes

• "New Perspectives on Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Market Economies: An Empirical Assessment" (with Roberto Duncan), International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 35(3), pp. 1008-1031, 2019. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 388, January 2018

  • Data and Replication Files

  • Video presentation of the paper 'New Perspectives on Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Market Economies: An Empirical Assessment', Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, March 14, 2018

  • "As Good as a Random Walk: Inflation Forecasting in Emerging Market Economies" (with Roberto Duncan), VoxEU, June 8, 2018

    • Dataset Files (VoxEU)

• "Detecting Periods of Exuberance: A Look at the Role of Aggregation with an Application to House Prices" (with Efthymios Pavlidis and Valerie Grossman), Economic Modelling, Vol. 80(August), pp. 87-102, 2019. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 325, August 2017 (Revised July 2018)

  • Data and Replication Files

  • exuber: Econometric Analysis of Explosive Time Series (R package with Kostas Vasilopoulos and Efthymios Pavlidis) and intro to exuber (with Kostas Vasilopoulos, Efthymios Pavlidis, and Simon Spavound)

  • Video presentation of the paper 'Detecting Periods of Exuberance: A Look at the Role of Aggregation with an Application to House Prices' (with Valerie Grossman), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, August 18, 2017

  • Read coverage of this work from Bloomberg (October 19, 2017)

• "Good Policies or Good Luck? New Insights on Globalization and the International Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism," Computational Economics, Vol. 54(1), pp. 419-454, 2019. A longer working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 321, July 2017 

  • Data and Replication Files

  • Read coverage of this work from the Wall Street Journal and the Dallas Morning News (September 6, 2017)

• "Modeling Time-Variation Over the Business Cycle (1960-2017): An International Perspective," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Vol. 22(5), 2018. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 348, October 2018

  • Data and Replication Files

  • SUERF Policy Note, Issue No. 71 (May 16, 2019)

  • LinkedIn post (April 5, 2019)

  • Econbrowser post (October 18, 2018)

• "Inflation as a Global Phenomenon--Some Implications for Inflation Modelling and Forecasting" (with Ayse Kabukcuoglu), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 87(2), pp. 46-73, 2018. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 261, January 2016 (Revised: November 2017) 

  • A background paper with the derivations of the model and supplementary results appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 261a, November 2017

  • Video presentation of the paper 'Inflation as a Global Phenomenon--Some Implications for Inflation Modelling and Forecasting', Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, October 17, 2017

(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)

• "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun" (with Efthymios Pavlidis, Alisa Yusupova, Ivan Paya, David Peel, Adrienne Mack and Valerie Grossman), The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 53(4), pp. 419-449, 2016. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 165, December 2013 (Revised June 2015)

  • Data and Replication Files

  • exuber: Econometric Analysis of Explosive Time Series (R package with Kostas Vasilopoulos and Efthymios Pavlidis) and intro to exuber (with Kostas Vasilopoulos, Efthymios Pavlidis, and Simon Spavound)

  • Presentation of the paper 'Monitoring Housing Markets for Episodes of Exuberance' (with Efthymios Pavlidis), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, November 15, 2013

  • Read coverage of this work from the Wall Street Journal Blog: Real Time Economics (January 17, 2014) and from BetterDwelling.com (October 27, 2017)

• "A Quantitative Assessment of the Role of Incomplete Asset Markets on the Dynamics of the Real Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Vol. 27(5), pp. 945-967, 2016. A working paper version appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 262, January 2016.

  • A background paper with the derivations of the model appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 74, February 2011

(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)

• "A Contribution to the Chronology of Turning Points in Global Economic Activity (1980-2012)" (with Adrienne Mack and Valerie Grossman), Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 46, pp. 170-185, 2015. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 169, January 2014

  • Data and Replication Files

• "On the Sustainability of Exchange Rate Target Zones with Central Parity Realignments," Economics Letters, Vol. 134, pp. 86-89, 2015. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 243, June 2015

(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)

• "A New Database of Global Economic Indicators" (with Adrienne Mack and Valerie Grossman), The Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 39(3), pp. 163-197, 2014. A working paper version of this article under the title "Database of Global Economic Indicators (DGEI): A Methodological Note" appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 166, December 2013

(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)

• "Assessing Bayesian Model Comparison in Small Samples" (with Mark A. Wynne), Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 34 (Bayesian Model Comparison), pp. 71-115, edited by Ivan Jeliazkov and Dale Poirier. Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2014. A working paper version of this article under the title "Assessing Bayesian Model Comparison in Small Samples" appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 189, August 2014

  • A background paper with the derivations of the model appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 190, August 2014

(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)

• "Investment and Real Exchange Rates in Sticky Price Models" (with Jens Søndergaard), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 17(2), pp. 195-234, 2013. A working paper version of this article under the title "The Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models: Does Investment Matter?" appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 17, July 2008

  • A background paper with the derivations of the model appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 16, July 2008 (Revised November 2010)

(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)

• "Bayesian Estimation of NOEM Models: Identification and Inference in Small Samples" (with Diego Vilán and Mark A. Wynne), Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 28 (DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments), pp. 137-199, edited by Nathan S. Balke, Fabio Canova, Fabio Milani, and Mark A. Wynne. Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2012. An extended working paper version of this article under the title "Bayesian Estimation of NOEM Models: Identification and Inference in Small Samples" appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 105, January 2012 (Revised March 2012)

(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)

• "A Model of the Exchange Rate with Informational Frictions," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics: Vol. 10 : Iss. 1 (Contributions), Article 2, 2010. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 2, October 2007

  • Technical Appendix 

  • Code and Dataset Files

Book Chapters

• "Exploring the Nexus between Inflation and Globalization under Inflation Targeting through the Lens of New Zealand's Experience" (with Ayse Kabukcuoglu and Mehmet Ali Soytas), in Current Approaches in Education and Economics, Part II. Current Approaches in Economic Studies, Chapter V, pp. 55-74, edited by Hasan Göksu. SRA Academic Publishing, October 2017. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 308, March 2017 

(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)

• "The Global Component of Local Inflation: Revisiting the Empirical Content of the Global Slack Hypothesis with Bayesian Methods," in Monetary Policy in the Context of Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons, pp. 51-112, edited by William Barnett and Fredj Jawadi. Emerald Group Publishing Limited, July 2015. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 225, February 2015 

(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)

• "U.S. Business Cycles, Monetary Policy and the External Finance Premium," in Advances in Non-Linear Economic Modeling: Theory and Applications, Vol. 17, pp. 41-114, edited by Frauke Schleer-van Gellecom, Series: Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer, January 2014. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 160, September 2013 

(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)

• "Global Slack as a Determinant of U.S. Inflation" (with Mark A. Wynne), in Globalisation and Inflation Dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, edited by the Bank for International Settlements, Vol. 70, pp. 93-98. Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements, 2013. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 123, August 2012

  • Read coverage of this work from The Economist (September 19, 2012)

• "The Balance Sheet Channel" (with Ethan Cohen-Cole), in Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edited by Rodrigo A. Alfaro, Series: Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies. Santiago, Chile: Central Bank of Chile, 2010. A working paper version of this article appeared as SSRN Working Paper Series No. 2365048, December 2013 

• "Investment and Trade Patterns in a Sticky-Price, Open-Economy Model" (with Jens Søndergaard), in The Economics of Imperfect Markets. The Effect of Market Imperfections on Economic Decision-Making, edited by Giorgio Calcagnini and Enrico Saltari, Series: Contributions to Economics. Heidelberg: Springer (Physica-Verlag), December 2009. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 28, January 2009

(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)

Books

• "Functional Doctrine of Money. Germán Bernácer" (translated with María Teresa Martínez-García), published by Caja de Ahorros del Mediterráneo and Universidad de Alicante Fundación General with the support of the Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, June 2009. [This is an English translation of the revised second edition of "La Doctrina Funcional del Dinero," by Germán Bernácer Tormo, published by the Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Instituto "Sancho de Moncada": Madrid, 1956.]

Working Papers

Business Cycle Dynamics and Monetary Policy

• "Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance, and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis" (with Stephen J. Cole and Eric R. Sims), Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 424, September 2023

  • A version of this paper appeared as NBER working paper no. 31777, October 2023

(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)

• "On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Novel Asset Market Monitoring Tools for Building Economic Resilience and Mitigating Financial Risks" (with Valerie Grossman and Lauren Spits), Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 421, June 2023

  • Speech at the 2023 Central Banking summer meetings: "On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Novel Asset Market Monitoring Tools for Building Economic Resilience and Mitigating Financial Risks"

  • Slides

  • Dataset

• "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound" (with Rachel Doehr), Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 412, November 2021

(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)

• "Checking the Path Towards Recovery from the COVID-19 Isolation Response" (with Finn E. Kydland), Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 384, May 2020

  • Video of the presentation of 'Checking the Path Towards Recovery from the COVID-19 Isolation Response', Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, July 9, 2020

(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)

• "Monetary Policy Expectations and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound" (with Rachel Doehr), Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 240, May 2015 (Revised: November 2021)

  • Online Appendix

  • Read coverage of this work from The Atlantic magazine (June 14, 2016)

  • Videoblog (February 16, 2022)

(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)

Open-Economy Macroeconomics

• "The Contribution of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities to the U.S. Long-Term Interest Rate" (with Yixiang Zhang), SSRN Working Paper no. 3495790, November 2019 

(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)

• "Globalization and Monetary Policy: An Introduction," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 11, April 2008

Inflation Dynamics and Globalization

• "Just Do IT? An Assessment of Inflation Targeting in a Global Comparative Case Study" (with Roberto Duncan and Patricia Toledo)

  • Slides

(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)

House Prices

• "A Cross-Country Quarterly Database of Real House Prices: A Methodological Note" (with Adrienne Mack and Valerie Grossman), Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 99, December 2011 (Revised: January 2019)

  • International House Price Database of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

  • IEO/IMF (Independent Evaluation Office of the International Monetary Fund) Virtual Seminar June 24, 2021: "The Global Real Estate Boom: Is it Time to Worry Again?"

Methodological Contributions

• "A Matter of Perspective: Mapping Linear Rational Expectations Models into Finite-Order VAR Form," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 389, May 2020 

  • "Finite-Order VAR Representation of Linear Rational Expectations Models: With Some Lessons for Monetary Policy," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 285, September 2016 (Revised: August 2018)

  • Supplementary materials (SSRN WP #3279250): "Finite-Order VAR Representation of Linear Rational Expectations Models: In a Nutshell"

  • Presentation Slides

  • Codes

Federal Reserve System Publications

• "Disparate Supply-Side Forces Gave U.S. Economy an Edge" (with Braden Strackman), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, March 26, 2024

  • Replication Files

  • Media and online coverage: Central Banking 

• "Gazing at R-star: Gauging U.S. Monetary Policy Via the Natural Rate of Interest," Dallas Fed Economics Blog, July 3, 2023

  • Replication Files

• "Monetary Policy at a Crossroads: Donald Kohn on Controlling Inflation, Ukraine Effects, Volcker-Era Lessons," Dallas Fed Economics Blog, July 5, 2022

• "Russia’s War on Ukraine Will Leave Scars on U.S., World Economies" (with Jarod Coulter), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, May 17, 2022

• "Real-Time Market Monitoring Finds Signs of Brewing U.S. Housing Bubble" (with Jarod Coulter, Valerie Grossman, Peter C.B. Phillips, and Shuping Shi), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, March 29, 2022

  • Dataset Files

  • Media and online coverage (some of it anyway): CNN, CBS, Sunday Today with Willie Geist (NBC), NPR, Bloomberg, Fortune here and here, USA Today, Dallas Morning News, Forbes, CGTN, Yahoo Finance here and here, Housing Wire Daily, Allsides, Seeking Alpha, local news (Salt Lake City here and here, Nashville, Jacksonville), and Youtube (here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here, among others).

• "Taking the Global Housing Market’s Temperature: Is It Running a Fever (Again)?" (with Jarod Coulter, Valerie Grossman, Efthymios Pavlidis, Kostas Vasilopoulos, and Iván Payá), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, September 28, 2021

  • Dataset Files

• "Spanish-Speaking Growth in Texas Reinforces Need to Close Education Gaps" (with María Teresa Martínez-García, Jarod Coulter, and Valerie Grossman), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, August 3, 2021

  • In Spanish: El aumento en el uso del español en Texas refuerza la necesidad de cerrar las brechas educativas

  • Replication Files

• "Se Habla Español: U.S. Yet to Realize Many Benefits of a Growing Bilingual Population" (with María Teresa Martínez-García, Jarod Coulter, and Valerie Grossman), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, July 13, 2021

  • Replication Files

  • Virtual Seminar for the Instituto Cervantes's Observatory at Harvard University, December 2, 2021 (Video, Presentation and Replication Files)

• "Fed’s New Inflation Targeting Policy Seeks to Maintain Well-Anchored Expectations" (with Jarod Coulter and Valerie Grossman), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, April 6, 2021

  • Dataset Files

  • Slides and video from the presentation at the Dallas Fed's 2021 Summer Professional Development conference (June 24, 2021)

• "COVID-19 Risks Expose Vulnerabilities, Downside Risks to U.S. Outlook" (with Jarod Coulter), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, March 2, 2021

  • Dataset Files

  • Read coverage of this work from Business Insider (March 3, 2021)

  • criticalmention.com video (March 4, 2021)

• "Systemic Risks, Interdependencies Weigh on 2021 Global Outlook" (with Jarod Coulter), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, February 16, 2021

  • Dataset Files

• "Policymakers’ Response to COVID-19 Can Draw on Great Recession Lessons" (with Jarod Coulter), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, July 7, 2020

  • Dataset Files

• "Private Forecasters’ COVID-19 Global Growth Outlook Takes Shape," Dallas Fed Economics Blog, May 5, 2020

  • Dataset Files

  • Econbrowser post (May 6, 2020) 

• "Go Figure: Texas Home Prices Head Through the Roof" (with Valerie Grossman), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Vol. 18, No. 01, First Quarter 2018

  • Dataset Files

• "Risk, Uncertainty Separately Cloud Global Growth Forecasting" (with Alexander Chudik and Valerie Grossman), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, Vol. 11, No. 9, July 2016 

  • Technical Appendix

  • Dataset Files

• "Consequences of the Euro: Monetary Union, Economic Disunion?" (with Valerie Grossman), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, Vol. 11, No. 2, April 2016

  • Dataset Files

• "Investment Enhances Emerging Economies’ Living Standards," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, Vol. 10, No. 5, April 2015

  • Dataset Files

• "Globalization: The Elephant in the Room That Is No More," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute 2014 Annual Report, February 2015 

• "Technological Progress is Key to Improving World Living Standards," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, Vol. 8, No. 4, June 2013 

  • Erratum

  • Technical Appendix

  • Dataset Files

• "Increased Real House Price Volatility Signals Break from Great Moderation" (with Adrienne Mack), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, Vol. 7, No. 1, January 2012 

  • Technical Appendix

  • Dataset Files

• "The Global Slack Hypothesis" (with Mark A. Wynne), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Staff Papers, No. 10, September 2010

  • Matlab and Dynare Codes

  • Presentation 'Global Output Gaps: Wave of the Future?' (by James Bullard), March 28, 2012, with references to this article

  • Read coverage on the determinants of inflation in the Financial Times (March 30, 2015) with references to the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of December 15-16, 2009 (see FOMC documents here and here) 

• "The Euro and the Dollar in the Crisis and Beyond" (with Janet Koech), Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute 2010 Annual Report, May 2011 

  • Dataset Files

• "A Historical Look at the Labor Market During Recessions" (with Janet Koech), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, Vol. 5, No. 1, January 2010 

  • Technical Appendix

  • Dataset Files

Other Research Publications

• "Exploring the Economics of Russia's War with Ukraine in One Minute", Video Update, March 29, 2022

• "Interest Rate Expectations Shape the Federal Reserve’s Path of Lift-off" (with Rachel Doehr), VoxEU, March 6, 2022

  • Dataset Files

• "Room to Grow: Housing for a New Economy," IMF's Global Housing Watch Newsletter, March 2020

  • Re-posted as a LinkedIn article

• ""Españoles por el Mundo"​: Evolución y Determinantes (2002-2019)," Boletín del Colegio Oficial de Doctores y Licenciados en Filosofía y Letras y en Ciencias Núm. 284 (Junio-Julio 2019)

  • Dataset Files

• "As Good as a Random Walk: Inflation Forecasting in Emerging Market Economies" (with Roberto Duncan), VoxEU, June 8, 2018

  • Dataset Files

• "Oil Change: Fueling Housing and Land Prices?" (with Valerie Grossman, Yongzhi Sun, and Luis B. Torres), Journal of the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Tierra Grande, Vol. 24, October 2017

  • Dataset Files

• "Global and Local Housing Markets: The View From Experts at the Dallas FED" (with Valerie Grossman), interviewed by Hites Ahir, IMF's Global Housing Watch Newsletter, August 2016

• "Curb Your Enthusiasm: Keeping an Eye on Home Prices" (with Valerie Grossman and Luis B. Torres), Journal of the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Tierra Grande, Vol. 23, July 2016

  • Dataset Files

• "Historia de Una Mosca Valenciana (o Noveldera)" (with María Teresa Martínez García and Omayra Esquivas Espada), published in Betania, Novelda (Spain), June 2014

• "The Maritime Voyage of Jorge Juan to the Viceroyalty of Peru (1735–1746)" (with María Teresa Martínez García), published in Betania, Novelda (Spain), June 2012

• "Lecture Notes on Globalization and Monetary Policy (Rules)," April 2008