International Economics
Digging Deeper on the Role of International Linkages: An analytical and empirical view of exchange rate determination, capital account flows and trade based partly on the workhorse open-economy New Keynesian model laid out in Martínez-García and Wynne (2010).
Check out my research on the following subjects in international economics:
International Macro
Research Publications
Refereed Journals
"Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing?" (with Jarod Coulter and Roberto Duncan), Economía, Vol. 45 (89), pp. 102-149, August 2022. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 417, July 2022
"Introduction to Special Issue 2022-1: Recent Developments in Inflation Dynamics" (with Roberto Duncan), Economía, Vol. 45(89), August 2022.
"Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest," Economic Modelling, Vol. 100, July 2021. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 403, October 2020 (Revised: February 2021)
A background paper with the derivations of the model and supplementary results appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 403app, October 2020 (Revised: February 2021)
"Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies" (with Valerie Grossman, Mark A. Wynne, and Ren Zhang), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 113, May 2021 (lead article in this issue, available online since January 2, 2021). A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 359, April 2019 (Revised: March 2021)
Video presentation of the paper 'Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies', Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, April 24, 2019
"Modeling Time-Variation Over the Business Cycle (1960-2017): An International Perspective," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Vol. 22(5), 2018. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 348, October 2018
SUERF Policy Note, Issue No. 71 (May 16, 2019)
LinkedIn post (April 5, 2019)
Econbrowser post (October 18, 2018)
"A Contribution to the Chronology of Turning Points in Global Economic Activity (1980-2012)" (with Adrienne Mack and Valerie Grossman), Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 46, pp. 170-185, 2015. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 169, January 2014
"A New Database of Global Economic Indicators" (with Adrienne Mack and Valerie Grossman), The Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 39(3), pp. 163-197, 2014. A working paper version of this article under the title "Database of Global Economic Indicators (DGEI): A Methodological Note" appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 166, December 2013
(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)
Working Papers
Business Cycle Dynamics and Monetary Policy
"Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance, and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis" (with Stephen J. Cole and Eric R. Sims), Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 424, September 2023
A version of this paper appeared as NBER working paper no. 31777, October 2023
(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)
"Checking the Path Towards Recovery from the COVID-19 Isolation Response" (with Finn E. Kydland), Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 384, May 2020
Video of the presentation of 'Checking the Path Towards Recovery from the COVID-19 Isolation Response', Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, July 9, 2020
(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)
Open-Economy Macroeconomics
"The Contribution of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities to the U.S. Long-Term Interest Rate" (with Yixiang Zhang), SSRN Working Paper no. 3495790, November 2019
(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)
"Globalization and Monetary Policy: An Introduction," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 11, April 2008
Inflation Dynamics and Globalization
"Just Do IT? An Assessment of Inflation Targeting in a Global Comparative Case Study" (with Roberto Duncan and Patricia Toledo)
(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)
Federal Reserve System Publications
"Disparate Supply-Side Forces Gave U.S. Economy an Edge" (with Braden Strackman), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, March 26, 2024
Media and online coverage: Central Banking
"Gazing at R-star: Gauging U.S. Monetary Policy Via the Natural Rate of Interest," Dallas Fed Economics Blog, July 3, 2023
"Russia’s War on Ukraine Will Leave Scars on U.S., World Economies" (with Jarod Coulter), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, May 17, 2022
"COVID-19 Risks Expose Vulnerabilities, Downside Risks to U.S. Outlook" (with Jarod Coulter), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, March 2, 2021
Read coverage of this work from Business Insider (March 3, 2021)
criticalmention.com video (March 4, 2021)
"Systemic Risks, Interdependencies Weigh on 2021 Global Outlook" (with Jarod Coulter), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, February 16, 2021
"Private Forecasters’ COVID-19 Global Growth Outlook Takes Shape," Dallas Fed Economics Blog, May 5, 2020
Econbrowser post (May 6, 2020)
"Risk, Uncertainty Separately Cloud Global Growth Forecasting" (with Alexander Chudik and Valerie Grossman), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, Vol. 11, No. 9, July 2016
"Investment Enhances Emerging Economies’ Living Standards," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, Vol. 10, No. 5, April 2015
"Technological Progress is Key to Improving World Living Standards," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, Vol. 8, No. 4, June 2013
"The Global Slack Hypothesis" (with Mark A. Wynne), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Staff Papers, No. 10, September 2010
Presentation 'Global Output Gaps: Wave of the Future?' (by James Bullard), March 28, 2012, with references to this article
Read coverage on the determinants of inflation in the Financial Times (March 30, 2015) with references to the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of December 15-16, 2009 (see FOMC documents here and here)
Other Research Publications
"Exploring the Economics of Russia's War with Ukraine in One Minute", Video Update, March 29, 2022
"Lecture Notes on Globalization and Monetary Policy (Rules)," April 2008
Policy Presentations
FOMC
Read a discussion of the monetary policy framework of the Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan at "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis" (with Dario Caldara, Etienne Gagnon, and Christopher J. Neely), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 103(4), Fourth Quarter 2021, pp. 425-460. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 397, August 2020
This paper also circulated as: "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis" (with Dario Caldara, Etienne Gagnon, and Christopher J. Neely), Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-065. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
The analysis in this paper was presented to the Federal Open Market Committee as background for its discussion of the Federal Reserve’s review of monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. The Committee discussed issues related to the review at five consecutive meetings from July 2019 to January 2020. References to the FOMC’s current framework for monetary policy refer to the framework articulated in the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy first issued in January 2012 and reaffirmed each January, most recently in January 2019. The conclusions and revision to the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Framework were announced by Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 26, 2020: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm
Related blog post: "Fed’s New Inflation Targeting Policy Seeks to Maintain Well-Anchored Expectations" (with Jarod Coulter and Valerie Grossman), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, April 6, 2021
Read a discussion of the global slack hypothesis in the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of December 15-16, 2009 (see FOMC documents here and here)
International Trade
Research Publications
Refereed Journals
"El valor económico del español en Estados Unidos: Oportunidades y retos para el futuro" (with María Teresa Martínez-García), Estudios del Observatorio / Observatorio Studies, 78, pp. 1-50, June 28, 2022.
"The Economic Value of Spanish in the United States: Opportunities and Challenges for the Future" (with María Teresa Martínez-García), Estudios del Observatorio / Observatorio Studies, 78, pp. 1-48, June 28, 2022.
Book Chapters
"Investment and Trade Patterns in a Sticky-Price, Open-Economy Model" (with Jens Søndergaard), in The Economics of Imperfect Markets. The Effect of Market Imperfections on Economic Decision-Making, edited by Giorgio Calcagnini and Enrico Saltari, Series: Contributions to Economics. Heidelberg: Springer (Physica-Verlag), December 2009. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 28, January 2009
(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)
Working Papers
Open-Economy Macroeconomics
"Globalization and Monetary Policy: An Introduction," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 11, April 2008
Federal Reserve System Publications
"Spanish-Speaking Growth in Texas Reinforces Need to Close Education Gaps" (with María Teresa Martínez-García, Jarod Coulter, and Valerie Grossman), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, August 3, 2021
"Se Habla Español: U.S. Yet to Realize Many Benefits of a Growing Bilingual Population" (with María Teresa Martínez-García, Jarod Coulter, and Valerie Grossman), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, July 13, 2021
Virtual Seminar for the Instituto Cervantes's Observatory at Harvard University, December 2, 2021 (Video, Presentation and Replication Files)
"The Global Slack Hypothesis" (with Mark A. Wynne), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Staff Papers, No. 10, September 2010
Presentation 'Global Output Gaps: Wave of the Future?' (by James Bullard), March 28, 2012, with references to this article
Read coverage on the determinants of inflation in the Financial Times (March 30, 2015) with references to the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of December 15-16, 2009 (see FOMC documents here and here)
Other Research Publications
""Españoles por el Mundo": Evolución y Determinantes (2002-2019)," Boletín del Colegio Oficial de Doctores y Licenciados en Filosofía y Letras y en Ciencias Núm. 284 (Junio-Julio 2019)
"Historia de Una Mosca Valenciana (o Noveldera)" (with María Teresa Martínez García and Omayra Esquivas Espada), published in Betania, Novelda (Spain), June 2014
"The Maritime Voyage of Jorge Juan to the Viceroyalty of Peru (1735–1746)" (with María Teresa Martínez García), published in Betania, Novelda (Spain), June 2012
"Lecture Notes on Globalization and Monetary Policy (Rules)," April 2008
Exchange Rates
Research Publications
Refereed Journals
"A Quantitative Assessment of the Role of Incomplete Asset Markets on the Dynamics of the Real Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Vol. 27 (5), pp. 945-967, 2016. A working paper version appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 262, January 2016.
A background paper with the derivations of the model appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 74, February 2011
(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)
"On the Sustainability of Exchange Rate Target Zones with Central Parity Realignments," Economics Letters, Vol. 134, pp. 86-89, 2015. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 243, June 2015
(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)
"Investment and Real Exchange Rates in Sticky Price Models" (with Jens Søndergaard), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 17(2), pp. 195-234, 2013. A working paper version of this article under the title "The Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models: Does Investment Matter?" appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 17, July 2008
A background paper with the derivations of the model appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 16, July 2008 (Revised November 2010)
(For code and dataset files, contact the author.)
"A Model of the Exchange Rate with Informational Frictions," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics: Vol. 10 : Iss. 1 (Contributions), Article 2, 2010. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 2, October 2007
Working Papers
Open-Economy Macroeconomics
"Globalization and Monetary Policy: An Introduction," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 11, April 2008
Federal Reserve System Publications
"The Global Slack Hypothesis" (with Mark A. Wynne), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Staff Papers, No. 10, September 2010
Presentation 'Global Output Gaps: Wave of the Future?' (by James Bullard), March 28, 2012, with references to this article
Read coverage on the determinants of inflation in the Financial Times (March 30, 2015) with references to the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee of December 15-16, 2009
Other Research Publications
Policy Presentations
FOMC
Read a discussion of the monetary policy framework of the Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan at "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis" (with Dario Caldara, Etienne Gagnon, and Christopher J. Neely), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 103(4), Fourth Quarter 2021, pp. 425-460. A working paper version of this article appeared as Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no. 397, August 2020
This paper also circulated as: "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis" (with Dario Caldara, Etienne Gagnon, and Christopher J. Neely), Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-065. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
The analysis in this paper was presented to the Federal Open Market Committee as background for its discussion of the Federal Reserve’s review of monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. The Committee discussed issues related to the review at five consecutive meetings from July 2019 to January 2020. References to the FOMC’s current framework for monetary policy refer to the framework articulated in the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy first issued in January 2012 and reaffirmed each January, most recently in January 2019. The conclusions and revision to the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Framework were announced by Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 26, 2020: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm
Related blog post: "Fed’s New Inflation Targeting Policy Seeks to Maintain Well-Anchored Expectations" (with Jarod Coulter and Valerie Grossman), Dallas Fed Economics Blog, April 6, 2021
Read a discussion of the global slack hypothesis in the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of December 15-16, 2009 (see FOMC documents here and here)