Synthetic Control Models in the History of Economic Thought
Synthetic Control Models in the History of Economic Thought
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Introduction
Introduction
With the publication of Magness and Makovi's paper in the Journal of Political Economy (and the prior Twitter debate), some may be curious about understanding the place of synthetic control models in the history of economic thought. This page is dedicated to any of those curious individuals looking to better understand how to examine and/or create a synthetic control model for cases in the history of economic thought (HET).
I've had the chance to explore both sides- examination and creation- throughout my masters and bachelors theses, respectively. My masters thesis was a critical look into understanding the what, why, and how of synthetic control models in HET. This is meant to serve as a guidebook. On the other side of this, my bachelors thesis took an identical approach as Magness and Makovi but wiht understanding how the 2008 financial crisis impacted the work of Hyman Minsky (compared to the Russian Revolution and Karl Marx). The paper, being a bachelors thesis, is by no means a perfect example of how to employ synthetic controls in HET, rather I'm going to share the paper and some of the data for anyone wanting to learn the methodology through practice and replication.
Exploring the place of synthetic controls in HET (Masters thesis)
Exploring the place of synthetic controls in HET (Masters thesis)
Abstract: This thesis explores the place of synthetic control models in the study of the history of economic thought (HET). Synthetic control models, a causal model used for comparative case studies, can provide both epistemic and non-epistemic value to HET if employed correctly. Practitioners in HET should not immediately close the door to this new methodology and rather must discuss the potential value and set the standards for its use. This thesis explores the whole of the conversation by addressing the what, why, how and who about the use of synthetic control models in HET.
Synthetic Controls in HET_NeedlerThesis.pdfCreating a Synthetic Control: Hyman Minsky and the 2008 Financial Crisis (Bachelors thesis)
Creating a Synthetic Control: Hyman Minsky and the 2008 Financial Crisis (Bachelors thesis)
Abstract: The work of Hyman Minsky was largely ignored outside of heterodox circles prior to the financial crisis of 2008. With the onset of the crisis, many agree his work took on a new influence however this change has yet to be quantified. This paper combines two rising methodologies-- citation analyses and synthetic control models-- to show how the 2008 financial crisis impacted the reception of Minsky’s work compared to his Keynesian contemporaries. A citation analysis is used to show a spike in Minsky’s work following 2008, while a synthetic control method is used to show how the 2008 financial crisis impacted the work of Minsky more heavily than his Keynesian counterparts.
Find SSRN copy (here).
Impact of the 2008 Financial Crisis on Hyman Minsky.pdfData and useful sources for running a synthetic control in HET
Data and useful sources for running a synthetic control in HET
Data for understanding how the 2008 financial crisis impacted the citations of Hyman Minsky ->
Sources for understanding synthetic controls:
Chapter 10 in Scott Cunningham's Causal Mixtape (here). Find explanation about the model, explanation on how to run the model, and example code for Stata and R.
Alberto Abadie's paper on using synthetic controls (here). Find explanations on the model.
Alberto Abadie's video lecture on Synthetic Controls for the NBER (here).
Data SCM in HET (Minsky 2008 financial crisis).xlsxPage updated
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