rookie Wide Receivers
rookie Wide Receivers
After an absurd sophomore season, Ja'Marr Chase opted out in 2020, but is still the surefire WR1 in this class. Chase rode a 84-1,780-20 stat line to a CFB championship, for an average of 21.0 yards per reception. He fits the mold of the typical alpha receiver on an NFL team. While he isn't a burner, he has top tier body control and hands, great route running, as well as physicality and quickness in his breaks that can create space against tight coverage. Chase's pure talent will change the offense for whatever team he lands on.
Rashod Bateman is looking like the most NFL-ready WR in this class. What does that mean? He has no big weakness. He does everything well. He is an alpha type WR, with big play ability and a YAC monster. Great ability to catch in traffic. Don't be discouraged by the 2020 season, his 2019 line of 60-1219-11 should tell you all you need to know. Bateman will likely be a great value in rookie drafts, and I see a mix of Keenan Allen and Allen Robinson. He's very fluid his movements are smooth, his slant routes are burner routes. Honestly, he deserves to be in the consideration for the #1 overall WR prospect, he's that good. Talent is transcendent over landing spot, he will succeed.
Sure, some of the core analytic metrics tell you to stay away from Devonta Smith. Breakout age, BMI, non-early declare, it all looks like a giant red flag. Devonta Smith is an outlier. Whether he succeeds or fails, he will be the first. With no precedent, it's almost impossible to predict. The Heisman winner does everything spectacularly, and has the ability to completely dominate quality opposition. (See 2021 National Championship game). Caught 3900 yards and 46 TDs at Alabama, with 1800 & 23 coming this past season. Smith is an elite WR, don't let his size fool you. The size analytics say no, but the production ones say yes. It's foolish to pass on him completely for his size, he was too dominant.
Rondale Moore is one of the most exciting prospects I've watched in a long time. Seeing him torch the 2018 Ohio State team, I was in love, and still am. Moore is an electric player once the ball is in his hands, any play can be a touchdown, and his ability to battle through contact and keep his balance is incredible. His route tree was a bit limited at Purdue, but they did everything they could to get him the ball, and without a great QB, that means lots of screens and slants. If you like Deebo Samuel, you'll love Rondale Moore. He compares very similarly to the WR legend Steve Smith. His workout metrics are popping up and they look outstanding, so the hype will be coming. Get Moore everywhere you can, he is a talent that a QB will really be able to lean on.
Terrace Marshall has had great success at the college level, but has always been overshadowed by Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson (deservedly so). He sneakily did catch 13 TDs in that 2019 season though. Marshall was finally given the opportunity to be the lead WR for LSU, and he delivered. Grabbing 48 balls and turning that into 731 yards and 10 TDs, Marshall was great. With a knack for the endzone, Marshall is an excellent pick at any point in a rookie draft. He will likely come with 1st-2nd round capital too. He is a "Jack of all trades but master of none" type of WR, but does have excellent contested catch ability. I see a lot of Allen Robinson in him, and he will likely be a featured WR for whichever team is lucky enough to snag him.
Amon-Ra is going to be an extremely productive NFL slot wide receiver. He has incredible footwork and can consistently win at all levels of the field. While he was used inside at USC, he was still able to attack downfield on top of shorter routes in the middle. His body control and contested catch ability is elite, on top of being unfazed by contact and physicality. Tracks the ball incredibly well. Very good with YAC, consistently able to evade and break tackles. Went for 500 yards and 7 TDs in 6 games this year, with 1000 yards and 6 TDs the year prior. Will likely be one of the top producing rookies in his first season, and will be a staple playmaker in any offense. Draft Amon-Ra everywhere you can, he's the next version of Rams Robert Woods (not just because he was a USC player too).
Do not be concerned about an single injury! Waddle is an elite athlete and has been one of the most exciting players to watch in CFB over the last few seasons. He is the epitome of the "any touch may be a TD" player. Truly game breaking speed, but also not afraid of contact. Makes defenders look silly with their angles and inability to keep up with him. Will be able to play both in the slot and outside, which gives his drafting team the ability to use him in a variety of different ways. Waddle is a big play machine and will likely have those giant boom games for fantasy purposes. There is a red flag of not ever hitting the "breakout", but he was on pace for it in 2020 before his ankle injury, although it would've been later than we'd hope.
Elijah Moore is hard to describe. He's undersized, yet very productive. He's gotten better in each season at Ole Miss, his last year being 100-1200-8. His best asset is his speed, as he's like lightning in a bottle. Most of his ability comes from once the ball is in his hands, as Ole Miss did a lot of screens and swings to get him the ball. Likely coming with a day 2 draft capital, Moore should be on the radar as a boom or bust player on a weekly basis. His footwork at the snap is second to none, it can burn a corner immediately. I'm scared to go all-in on him being undersized after seeing a lot of similar players never boom (Mecole Hardman and Henry Ruggs come to mind), but Moore comes at a low cost where he should be easily acquirable, likely being a team's primary slot option. He's a stud, don't let our ranking scare you off of him, this class is loaded in depth. Acquiring Moore would be an excellent decision.
While Dyami Brown played the role of 'deep threat' for UNC (over 20.0 yards per catch), he is far from a pure burner. He's has elite athleticism, but could be slightly below average in weight for a typical "X" receiver. Brown is an incredible vertical route runner and gets immediate separation at the LoS using his hands and feet, then dominates at the catch point using strength and body control. His skill at the 3rd level gives him a cushion to cut off routes into the middle of the field, where he excels as a ball carrier. Brown also gives tremendous effort as a downfield blocker. His one downside is his limited route tree, so he will have to work on learning more complex routes and subsequent releases at the next level. Expect early day 2 draft capital for Brown. He can take over a team at the next level out wide or in the slot, and become an offensive catalyst.
Wallace's best asset is his competitiveness. He's not afraid of press coverage and getting physical, constantly trying to run through defenders once the ball is in his hands. Excellent body control and great hands, Wallace projects likely as a WR2, or a possession-style wideout. He was used in tons of short yardage routes at Oklahoma State, a lot as the "pass option" in RPOs. With his physicality comes great contested catch ability, both covered and in traffic. What's most impressive is the physicality comes with an average frame at 5'11" 195. Draft capital will be huge for where Tylan falls in ADP, but he looks like he will be a solid contributor at the next level.
If you haven't seen the Seth Williams Moss-ing of Kentucky, google it right now. Williams is a huge athlete with tremendous catching ability. He bests tight coverage by simply winning jump ball battles. One of the "open when he's not" players. He is going to be a red zone nightmare with this skillset, but with the right QB can be a very productive WR1 for his team. He lacks the ability to get separation, but accounts for it through winning contested catches. Fearless to contact. Williams had 2000 yards and 17 TDs across 3 years at Auburn.
Terry has incredible value in rookie drafts at the moment. He's an exceptional athlete with great size and speed. The 2020 season was a waste for him, don't look into his production numbers, see it as his competitive drive. He started the season with a knee injury, tried to play through it, got a cleanup procedure, and tried to come back, before opting out and recovering. In his first 2 seasons, he turned 99 touches into 1900+ yards and 17 TDs. He ran a route tree consisting of curls, digs, slants, and go routes, but dominated on a terrible FSU offense. I don't think he is as good as him, but he's got a similar build to that of DK Metcalf. Draft capital and workout metrics may shoot him up ADP, but he's a great buy, he would be ranked much higher if it weren't for his injury-destroyed 2020.
Nico Collins is the type of WR who will be better in the pros than he was in college. Never had a great opportunity with bad QB play from Michigan. He's got great size at 6'4" 215, and will do best as a deep threat WR2 for an offense. His best ability is 50/50 ball skills, he's able to win any of those jump ball 1-on-1s. His value will come based on the QB and WR room he fits in. Likely won't be *too* productive year 1, but a nice piece of depth to have on a fantasy roster. High draft capital may push him up too far for my taste, as his production wasn't spectacular when comparing him to other WRs (2019: 37-730-7 across 12 games). He's a hidden breakout, especially in a year with a lack of alpha-WRs
Amari Rodgers is an incredibly overlooked prospect. He's been Trevor Lawrence's favorite target in 2020, amassing 77-1020-7 for Clemson. He had 19 catches as a freshman, and added to that each year, finishing at 181-2144-16 for his career. He also tore his ACL in this collage career, and produced like this upon a 6 month recovery. Rodgers production just can't be ignored. He is great with the ball in his hands, YAC is his best asset. Should be a depth WR add for an NFL team, likely with an early Day 3 selection.
Felton is one of my absolute favorite players in the class. He starts as a WR, gets moved to RB, then shows up at the Senior Bowl doing WR drills, and looking like the best of the bunch, as no corners could cover him. UCLA just wanted to get him the ball, as he is a serious TD on any play type of player. Excellent burst and speed, while also being extremely elusive. Felton will be a Day 3 steal for any team that gets his athleticism, and paired with a good offensive mind and he immediately rockets in value. Stash him anywhere and everywhere, as he reminds me of Austin Ekeler, where they're a listed RB but know their best asset is basically as a WR.
Toney is a very polarizing case. We really are hands-off with him. On one hand, he looks electric on film. He was manufactured lots of touches, many times placed in motion and grabbing end-arounds. Playing mostly out of the slot, he's got great speed and elusiveness with a small frame, with some devastating cuts. On the other hand, he goes against almost all of the best analytic measurements. He was almost a non-factor for the Gators until this season, he's got a late breakout age, small frame, and very low production per game. He's got way more YAC in comparison to air yards. Truly a 1 hit wonder in terms of production. 1st round draft capital will help his case a ton, but he is way overvalued at the moment. If you can get Toney at a value in the mid-late 2nd, that's about where he belongs. His best situation is a creative offensive mind that will manufacture him touches, where he can be a supporting WR and not a lead one.
Darden has been a statistical beast in his 4 years at North Texas. He hasn't had a season under 30 catches, and in 2020 he snagged 19 touchdowns over 9 games! He also had 16.1 yards per catch over his career. Darden is a speedster who's great at making the first man miss. He's got punt returning on his resume, and will likely find himself as a depth WR who makes the roster on great special teams ability. His TD production tells you he's got the talent.
Eskridge is small at 5'9" 190, and spent the majority of his time going back and forth between being a defensive back and a wide receiver. Because of his defensive background, Eskridge is not scared of contact, he consistently finds himself aggressively blocking and being physical in his routes. He averaged 20 yards per catch, as he's a great deep threat, dangerous with the ball in his hands. He's a valuable asset on special teams, not only as a return man, which will keep him on NFL rosters. He's got upside and is a great Dynasty stash if he ends up with the right team who will let him get on the field.
Atwell is tiny (5'9" 165), and will likely be a gadget type of player at the NFL level. He did lead the ACC in receiving with a 69-1272-11 line. His best shot at fantasy relevance will be as a big play type of player who has touches manufactured for him. Don't be fooled when he inevitably runs an elite-fast 40.
Surratt has prototypical WR1 size and broke out his sophomore year prior to a shoulder injury and opting out in 2020. While his athletic profile may not be the best, he excels in contested catch situations. His ceiling is limited by his ability to separate and pull away from tacklers. He should be a good red zone threat and potentially play the role of big slot. His draft capital may not be the best, but he has the same playstyle and similar upside to Mike Williams. Just be wary of injuries on those jump balls.
Warren Jackson is next in line of the high-ceiling Colorado State wideouts, following Rashard Higgins, Michael Gallup, and Preston Williams. He's huge at 6'6" 219lbs and broke out his junior year. His size is really the best thing he has going for him. Jackson isn't a great route runner, and doesn't have the burst or speed to separate. His best fit will be a creative team willing to scheme him open, as he struggles against aggressive press coverage, or in a heavy vertical passing attack. Jackson is a late round dart throw.
Simi Fehoko is a big play machine, he is fast enough to take the top off of the defense, while still being a large body to win contested balls. Solid ball tracking and great hands. Inconsistency in his route-running, he's not able to separate as quick as others, but his frame and big play skills will translate well to the NFL. He's a depth WR but will see the field on his big play ability. Worth a flier draft selection, especially if there's a coach where he lands who can tap into his potential.
Cade Johnson is an undersized slot receiver from South Dakota State. His biggest trait for fantasy relevance is how productive he was in college, he lights up my models with his domination. However, it was all against FCS competition, on a high powered team, but he did dominate. He is great once the ball is in his hands, he's fast and elusive (great returner), but his routes aren't crisp enough to see him as anything above a depth receiver at the next level. For fantasy purposes, his domination at the FCS level makes me interested in using a late pick on him.
Stevenson is a sleeper in this class, and will get late round draft capital. He shows incredible nuance and knowledge of the WR position, with quick release, great breaks, and a low center of gravity. He rarely makes body catches, and uses his body to box out defenders. Over his career, he evolved from a deep threat to a possession receiver. Stevenson can be used in vertical and horizontal passing games, as well as on special teams, and can take it to the house from anywhere. He's worth a shot no matter where he falls as a late rounder. His biggest limitation will be his size and hand battles off the LoS, but he should bulk up at the next level.
Shi is very quick off the line, and I love his slant route, he's open all the time. However, his game starts to end there. He's a bit smaller, and doesn't seem to get too aggressive physically in his routes. He's good in space when the ball gets into his hands, South Carolina manufactured him screens and slants in an RPO heavy offense. Shi likely gets slot reps at the next level but I don't see him being physical enough to stick around as an every down player.
DISCLAIMER: Anthony Schwartz is going to be overdrafted by the NFL.
Schwartz at the next level profiles as the typical deep threat for a vertical passing attack. He is a track star, but his 40 was a bit slower than expected at his pro day. He is built to beat defenders downfield and is a home run threat, but can easily be tackled by a single defender. He has decent upside, but is a WR3 at best. He can also be a decent target in the slot.
Jonathan Adams is nothing special, his highlight tape will look better than his full film. Good body control and contested catch ability, but he's not open consistently and I don't see him "burning" many corners, even at the group of 5 level. There's not enough here for me to interested in him beyond his nice size and 50/50 ball ability. He produced a ton his senior year (79-1111-12), but I don't see special in him, so he likely is capped at a depth receiver role.
Other rookie Wide Receivers
(If you like Zach Wilson, watch Dax)