Rookie Running Backs
Rookie Running Backs
Najee is seemingly the consensus best running back in this class. He has a 3-down skillset and is a very comfortable pass catcher. Harris's biggest strength is his ability to use his power and versatility to find (or make) holes at the LoS. While he doesn't really have a second gear and won't typically bust off long runs, he can tear through defenses and has shown that against NFL-caliber players at the college level. He seems to be able to win in all sorts of ways, speed, power, agility, hurdles, you name it. The only concern with Harris is his age, as he was not an early declare and will be 23 at the time of the draft.
Travis Etienne is a highly productive prospect and ran over competition, becoming the all-time leading rusher in the ACC and helping Clemson to the playoffs multiple years in a row. He has evolved as a pass catcher every year and can be a mismatch for linebackers due to his speed. He has incredible contact balance, which adds to his athleticism and explosiveness to give him big play ability so he can take any play to the house. His game reminds me a lot of Alvin Kamara (with less lateral agility), and he should be able to fit into any scheme as a workhorse back or as the lead in a RBBC. His biggest concern is vision, but otherwise, his minor issues are largely fixable at the next level. He seems to have been a victim of prospect fatigue, but he could be considered for #1 in this class, the 3 best are all very similar.
Williams can do a bit of everything. While he doesn't have any crazy physical traits, he has great size, decent speed, and NEVER goes down on first contact. He keeps his legs churning, falls forward and gets extra yards. His contact balance is top tier. Williams is a patient runner and has good hands out of the backfield, and is no slouch is pass blocking either. Williams' biggest strength is his ability to string together a variety of moves in a single run to turn a 5-yard gain into a 50-yarder. He lacks breakaway speed but has the same sort of bruising and powerful rushing ability that we see in Nick Chubb. He reads defenses well and uses angles to cut off potential tacklers. He can be a highly productive feature back, but we will have to see how his game translates to an NFL scheme. There's an argument for him to be anywhere from 1-3.
Jefferson was a large bright spot for Oregon State. He had over 1,500 yards his freshman season, and after an injury his sophomore season, came on strong in 2020. With a 6-game season for the Beavers, Jefferson accumulated 142-925-7. His biggest strengths are his vision/awareness and his lateral speed. He knows where everyone around him is, and uses his lateral quickness to find cutback lanes. This makes him a big weapon in the check-down and screen game. His biggest weakness is his long speed, but he uses his all-around skillset to mitigate that by finding big holes at the 2nd level. He keeps his feet moving after contact and falls for extra yards.
Kenneth Gainwell has been flying up draft boards since his impressive 2019 season, and for good reason. Although he has a slightly smaller build under 200 lbs, Gainwell runs with a lot of power. He is a dynamic playmaker and shows a lot of the same skills that Washington RB Antonio Gibson, also from Memphis, has. His biggest assets are sure hands in the receiving game and his creativity in space, where he takes good angles to juke tacklers. He played a lot out of the slot at Memphis, so he will be expected to take on a large receiving role. With good vision, elusiveness, and power, Gainwell can be the focal point of an NFL offense. He will need some development to transition at the next level, since he played QB in high school. He is also likely to put on some weight before week 1.
Chuba Hubbard was CFB's leading rusher in 2019, with over 2,000 yards and 21 TDs. After a disappointing 2020 in which Hubbard has less opportunity and less efficiency, he plummeted down draft boards. Hubbard is a confident runner, has good patience, and shows solid acceleration to top speed when he finds a hole that he likes. The biggest knock on Hubbard (and it's a big one) is his lack of pass catching ability and the fact that he can be a liability in pass protection. He likely will end up with day 2 draft capital, and his best fits are with teams with established zone-heavy blocking schemes that allow him some space to work with due to his lean stature. If he can fix his passing game issues in camp, he could end up being a steal in the draft.
Yet another UNC RB, Carter was overshadowed by Williams, but is arguably one of the most complete backs in this class. If he hadn't been sharing a backfield, we would be talking about him as a top-3 RB here. Despite his smaller size (5'8", 200 lbs) Carter has produced every time he's touched the ball. He topped 1,000 yards in each of the last 2 seasons, as well as over 20 receptions in both. The thing that jumps out about his running style is how smooth it is. He's not a bruising back, but blends together direction changes and jump cuts with vision and elusiveness, then explodes downfield. While he may not become a premier back at the NFL level, he certainly has the skillset to do so, and should be able to seamlessly fit into most schemes. Expect Carter to initially have 1b/pass catching role with the potential to become more.
Sermon is an interesting prospect. He played 3 years at Oklahoma and was serviceable but not elite, before transferring to Ohio State for his senior season. His best season was his sophomore season before slumping in 2019 and storming back in 2020. While Sermon may not be the best athlete, he has a slightly larger frame for a RB and uses it well. His breakaway speed is average at best, and he does not provide a lot of use in the passing game. The one knock on Sermon is that most of his production came in a handful of games, although those games were typically against better teams (Northwestern in the B1G Championship and Clemson in the playoffs). A lot of his yardage can be traced back to his top notch OL. Expect Sermon to be a solid, if unexciting option at the next level. He will likely end up as part of an RBBC with a pass catching counterpart.
This may seem low for a 'tier break', but in reality, all RBs above this line should receive significant draft capital (rounds 1-3) and will get carries in the NFL. Below this are dart throws with the potential for more, but we wouldn't consider RBs below this line 'safe' picks.
Khalil Herbert came onto the radar after transferring and spending his 2020 breakout season with the Hokies. While he isn't the most exciting athlete, he is a solid back. Herbert's biggest strength is his patience behind the line of scrimmage. He has great vision, waits for a hole to open, then uses his one-cut ability to get to the second level. This reminds me a lot of prime Le'Veon Bell. He has decent long speed, but needs a lane to get going. The things holding Herbert back are his inconsistent contact balance and short area burst, which are both hard to teach. He lacks proven pass-catching ability. Expect Herbert to be a solid backup, with the potential for the #2 in an RBBC.
Rhamondre Stevenson had a decent year at Oklahoma, but he doesn't provide that 'wow' factor on tape. His biggest strengths are his vision, strength and contact balance, where he is decent at hitting holes provided by the OL and breaking tackles at the second level. He won't bust off any long touchdowns, and lacks the long speed to break away. His elusiveness is average, and his foot speed is on the slower side, so don't expect any fancy footwork to make guys miss. Expect him to have a very Carlos Hyde-ish career as a solid backup, with the potential for some 1k seasons if a team gives him the bulk of the carries, since he has the size to be a pure between the tackles rusher.
Kylin Hill is really the only thing that worked for Mississippi State's offense the last 4 years. He got immediate starts due to his blue chip high school pedigree, and has the ideal build for a RB. Hill didn't do much receiving his first year, but has steadily increased his target share and established himself as a solid pass catcher out of the backfield. Hill is a very violent runner, and while he always seems to fall forward and fight for extra yards, he tends to take more hits than necessary (read: invites contact rather than juking). If he can stay healthy despite his running style, he can be a solid RB2 at the next level. He doesn't have that second gear for breakaway runs. Most likely, he will be a great between-the-tackles goal line threat.
Javian Hawkins was a big part of Louisville's production, in part because he is such a dynamic playmaker. Any time he touches the ball, he can take it all the way due to his elite acceleration and absurd long speed. Hawkins will win every foot race, and his game speed matches his track speed. He is someone built to get the ball in space or in a spread offense, ideally with a mobile QB to take pressure off. He isn't built to run between the tackles a lot, and doesn't really show the contact balance needed to do so. Hawkins wasn't asked to catch the ball a lot in college (21 receptions) and will have to prove himself as a pass catcher at the next level. Because Hawkins is slightly undersized, expect him to be a change of pace back with big play potential, and extra value as a returner.
Jaret Patterson caught the attention of the national media when he ran for 409 yards and 8 TDs in a single game, even though he comes from Buffalo in the MAC. Patterson has a compact build, and is fantastic between the tackles, where he finds space, keeps his legs moving, and comes out of the 2nd level cleanly. He has caught most of the balls thrown his way at the college level, although he was not used as a pass catcher often enough to measure his pass catching ability. Patterson's game is very one dimensional, and he is more of a plodder than an accelerator. He gets the yards that are there, plus a few extra, but won't rip off long runs, and will probably get caught from behind. His game reminds me a lot of Devonta Freeman and Devin Singletary coming out of college. Expect Patterson to be #2 in a committee at the next level, with a chance to take a lead job depending on competition.
Rakeem Boyd has great long speed, and exhibits patience at the line of scrimmage before exploding through holes. He won't create space on his own, but will allow a play to develop. He is a very linear runner and doesn't attempt a lot of jukes or cuts, but then again, he doesn't have to when he can blow by the secondary. He is a good pass catcher capable of running routes, but will suffer from the occasional focus drops. Boyd will likely be part of a committee backfield as RB 3 or 4 on a team.
Mitchell could be an excellent value late in drafts. He's very smart in his rushing, with good contact balance and a willingness to follow blocks. He lacks elite athleticism but did come up with great testing numbers. Worth a dart throw in being the next "James Robinson"!
Getting drafted in the 5th is huge for him. Now is DEFINITELY worth a look.
While Pooka Williams will never be a workhorse at the next level, he has the skillset to be a change of pace back or a pass catcher, much in the vein of Tarik Cohen or Nyheim Hines. His best quality is his acceleration at the second level, and his long speed is good but not great, meaning faster DBs or LBs will catch him from behind. He has okay vision finding holes, but is best used in the screen game where he can be given space by blocking WRs or TEs. He won't see the field in pass protection, and lacks the lower body strength to push back rushers or break tackles. Most of his limitations are physical, which doesn't bode well for his outlook. Pooka will most likely be depth on a fantasy roster as a return man, and nothing more.
Rountree comes off as a reliable, old-fashioned, between the tackles grinder. He doesn't really have a second gear to break off long runs. He uses his blocks effectively and keeps his feet moving to grid out extra yardage. His elusiveness isn't great, and he WILL get tackled at the LoS if he cuts outside. He is best suited to follow the blocks given to him and is tough to bring down. He is a good blocker in pass protection. His best case scenario is Jordan Howard in Chicago production, with a more likely scenario of being a roster depth piece goal line scalper upside like Malcolm Brown. He will be a waiver wire darling for 1 week in 2 years or so, and he will probably ruin a workhorse's upside.
Other Rookie Running Backs