Articles

1.  Competition and diversification in higher education: Analysing impacts on access and equity in the case of Portugal 

 P. N. Teixeira, P. L. Silva, R. Biscaia,   C. Sá

European Journal of Education, 72, 176-185, 2022, DOI: 10.1111/ejed.12501 

Abstract: In recent decades, higher education has experienced a massive expansion worldwide, which has often been linked to increasing higher education diversification. New sectors and new types of institutions emerged with this massification process to offer more diversified types of advanced training. At the same time, this expansion was often embedded in a political economy that increasingly favoured market forces, leading to growing privatisation and competition in the higher education sector. This article explores the relevance of institutional diversification and competition in higher education for access and equity in Portugal. The case of higher education in Portugal is particularly interesting since Portugal has a diverse system both in secondary education and in higher education, with significant vocational and private sectors at both levels (besides the more common academic and university tracks and public institutions). We analyse the profile of new cohorts of entrants by sector (public vs. private higher education institutions) and fields of study. Our results suggest that private secondary schools provide an advantageous track for accessing higher education, especially to prestigious programmes and institutions to which students compete to access. The analysis also indicates that socioeconomic background is a very relevant factor for access to higher education. Although students whose parents do not have a higher education degree may enrol in higher education, those whose parents have higher levels of educational attainment tend to enrol in more prestigious programmes and institutions, to which access is more competitive. 

2.  The (in)effectiveness of regulatory policies in higher education - The case of access policy in Portugal

R. Biscaia,  P. N. Teixeira,  C. Sá

Economic Analysis and Policy, 72, 176-185, 2021, DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2021.08.006 

Abstract: In recent years there has been a tendency to deregulate higher education systems, allowing them to follow the interplay of the supply and demand forces instead of shaping it through strong government regulation. One of the areas where these regulatory changes may have a more significant impact is that of access policies. In this article, we analyse a policy change in Portugal aimed at steering students’ behaviour and promoting greater institutional and geographical dispersion. This study discusses the effectiveness of this approach, namely by comparing its actual results with a simulation of what would have happened if there were no changes in the access system. We discuss to what extent the policy has had the impact it was expected or if students have reacted in a way that has undermined the intended policy objectives and draw some conclusions about the complexities of regulating students’ demand. 

3. Specialists or all-rounders: How best to select university students?  

P. L. Silva

Journal of Human Capital, 18(2), 227-271, 2024, DOI: 10.1086/728086 (published in  golden open access)

Abstract: I study whether universities should select their students on the basis of only specialized subject-specific tests or a broader set of skills and knowledge. Theoretically, I show that even if broader skills do not improve the outcomes of graduates in the labor market, a university optimally chooses to use them as a criterion for selection alongside the mastery of more subject-specific tools. Empirically, I exploit the variation between subject-specific and nonspecific entrance exam sets on a large administrative dataset of Portuguese students. My central finding is that universities with less specialized admission policies admit a pool of students who obtain a higher final GPA. 

4. Clustered local average treatment effects: fields of study and academic student progress 

D. Nibeering, M. Oostrveen, P. L. Silva

IZA Discussion Paper No. 15159, 2022 (Submitted)  

Abstract: Multiple unordered treatments with a binary instrument for each treatment are common in policy evaluation. This multiple treatment setting allows for different types of changes in treatment status that are non-compliant with the activated instrument. Therefore, instrumental variable (IV) methods have to rely on strong assumptions on the subjects' behavior to identify local average treatment effects (LATEs). This paper introduces a new IV strategy that identifies an interpretable weighted average of LATEs under relaxed assumptions, in the presence of clusters with similar treatments. The clustered LATEs allow for shifts across treatment clusters that are consistent with preference updating, but render IV estimation of individual LATEs biased. The clustered LATEs are estimated by standard IV methods, and we provide an algorithm that estimates the treatment clusters. We empirically analyze the effect of fields of study on academic student progress, and find violations of the LATE assumptions in line with preference updating, clusters with similar fields, treatment effect heterogeneity across students, and significant differences in student progress due to fields of study. 

5.  Public and private school grading bias patterns in secondary education 

P. L. Silva, S. L. DesJardins, R. Biscaia, C. Sá, P. N. Teixeira

The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, 2025, Forthcoming, DOI: 10.1515/bejeap-2024-0136

Abstract: We examine the extent of grade inflation in courses taken during high school and how such differences vary across student and school characteristics. Using administrative data, we assess grade inflation in Portuguese high schools over a decade. We propose a relative measure of grade inflation, comparing students’ high school grades to their national exam ranks. Examining various school types, we find that private schools tend to inflate grades, particularly at the top of the ability distribution. A regional disaggregation indicates that the northern districts exhibit a higher probability of inflation.

6. Teacher high school scores or admission exams: What matters for elite and non-elite HE Courses? 

P. L. Silva, C. Sá, R. Biscaia, P. N. Teixeira

IZA Discussion Paper No. 15350, 2022 (R&R) 

Abstract: Students are admitted into higher education based on their past performance. This paper compares two measures of past cognitive skills: teacher and national exam scores. By using a nationwide dataset, we look at how the predictive power of teacher assessment and exam scores for selecting successful students may vary with the degree of selectivity of higher education programmes. We find that teacher scores predict students' performance in higher education more accurately, and its predictive power remains the same independently of the selectivity programme indicator considered. We found that national exam scores are noisier and only gain relevance for highly selective programmes. Furthermore, we explore national exams' volatility and institutional selectivity as potential mechanisms to justify the results. Our results provide solid policy hints on the role that high school scores and admission exams should have for access and performance in higher education. 

7. The Impact of COVID-19 on dropout and delayed completion rates in Portuguese higher education 

C. Sá, A. R. Luz, O. Tavares, M. J. Antunes, P. L. Silva

(Working paper will be available soon)

Abstract:  This paper explores the impact of COVID-19 on higher education (HE) dropout and delayed completion rates in Portugal, focusing on how the pandemic may have exacerbated existing inequalities. The study uses data from the Directorate-General for Statistics of Education and Science (DGEEC) at the programme-institution level. Using fractional probit models, the analysis covers the period from 2018 to 2020 for dropout rates and 2016 to 2019 for delayed completion. Results show that dropout rates increased significantly during the pandemic, particularly for the 2019 and 2020 cohorts compared to pre-pandemic levels. Programs with a higher proportion of first-generation students and working students saw the highest rates of dropout and delayed completion, with these effects worsening during the pandemic. Scholarship and female students, while associated with lower rates of dropout and delay, saw diminished protective effects during COVID-19. STEM programs experienced a greater rise in dropouts and delays due to inadequate math skills and the cancellation of lab-based classes. Expanding scholarship programs is crucial to extend their protective effects to more students. Continuous monitoring systems should be established to identify at-risk students early, with personalised interventions targeting first-generation and working students. Additionally, requalification and continuous education programs should be promoted for students who dropped out due to the pandemic, facilitating their re-entry and completion of studies.

8. When girls enter STEM

A. R. Cardoso, L. P. Morin, P. L. Silva,

(Working paper will be available soon)

Abstract: The earnings potential of a field of study is increasingly relevant for the funding of higher education institutions by the government and the choice of degree by students. There is a widespread belief that if young females choose fields of study that are currently well-paid, such as STEM, the gender pay gap will narrow once they enter the labor market. We evaluate the impact of rising feminization on wages over the life cycle across fields of study while accounting for the changing job skill requirements. We address the following questions: Does a field of study become less valued in the labor market once its share of females increases? How does the rate of skill change impact the earnings of higher education graduates? We use rich longitudinal data on the population of workers and firms in the private sector in Portugal. We exploit exogenous variation in the share of females in an occupation relying on data on the population of higher education candidates and enrolled students. We find that wages within a field of study react to the share of females. Preliminary results indicate that a 10 p.p. increase in the share of female workers from a given major decreases wages by 5-6\%. Hence, as females enter well-paying majors, the gender pay gap will close, but not by as much as it would if wages did not react to the feminization of the job. 

9.  Keeping it in the family: Student to degree match

R. Murphy, P. L. Silva

IZA Discussion Paper No. 16931 e CESifo Discussion Paper No. 11075, 2024 (R&R)

Abstract: This paper examines systematic inequalities in the match between students and the university degree they apply to, and enroll in. Using linked administrative data on the population of Portuguese applicants we create a transparent and continuous measure of student-to-degree match employing minimal assumptions. We find that students who are the first in the family to attend post-secondary education consistently match to lower quality degrees across the entire achievement distribution. In contrast, only the highest achieving female students relatively undermatch. These gaps are larger at the application stage. We explore the role of student preferences and the consequences for intergenerational mobility. 

10. Determinants of switching higher education degrees 

L. Orujova, P. L. Silva, C. Sá, A. Carneiro 

(Working paper will be available soon)

Abstract:  While higher education decisions have been studied for bachelor's level relatively more in economic literature, less attention is paid to decisions pertaining to postgraduate education. This paper aims to contribute to this literature by exploring existing inequalities in transitioning to master's education and educational mobility In Portugal. For this purpose, we utilise large dataset of bachelor's graduates from Portuguese higher education institutions. The results show substantial differences in transition and mobility rates regarding gender, broad field of study, the ranking of the bachelor higher education institution, as well as whether students are first in family (FiF) to attend higher education. Further analysis shows that the differences between FiF and non-FiF graduates become smaller depending on the ranking of bachelor institutions, but not the field of study at bachelor level.

11. Returns to Postgraduate Education: Holding on to a Higher Ground? 

H. Figueiredo, V. Rudakov, A. Carneiro, M. Portela, P. N. Teixeira 

(Working paper will be available soon)

Abstract:  Postgraduates’ relative wages have been increasing despite large increases in the number of workers with such qualifications. In this paper, we document the evolution of post-graduates’ earnings premiums across the wage distribution and propose an innovative way to measure the importance of different sources of such differentials in the context of the rapid massification of higher education in Portugal. Using employer-employee linked data and an off-the-shelf non-parametric matching technique, we disentangle wage premiums within jobs shared by postgraduates and undergraduates from those associated with the assignment of postgraduates (undergraduates) to better (lower) paid and more (less) complex occupations. To address the problem of endogeneity and self-selection to postgraduate degrees, we employ a high-dimensional fixed effects model and the Gelbach decomposition. The study depicts that the postgraduate wage premium in Portugal increased more than twofold during the period from 2010 to 2019. The decomposition of such premium reveals that it is mostly related to heterogeneity of firms and graduate job assignment, while the effect of individual heterogeneity is moderate. The evidence suggests that undergraduates’ sorting into lower level, less complex jobs provide the major explanation of postgraduate premiums but, equally, that premiums within detailed jobs have been an important source of increasing returns to postgraduate degrees over time. We show, equally, that premiums have risen across the whole wage distribution. This provides optimistic evidence on the value of postgraduate degrees even in the face of their significant massification and increasingly questions the value of short duration spells in Portuguese higher education.

12. Education as markets: Efficiency and equity as critical challenges

P. L. Silva, P. N. Teixeira

Editors: M. P. Amaral, S. Jornitz, S. K. Amos

Handbook: The global business of education: approaches, issues and critical directions

Springer Nature (Open Access)

Expected by Spring 2025

Abstract: The aim of this chapter is to explore how higher education has evolved into a more market-oriented sector and to examine the resulting challenges. Building on earlier discussions about the economics of education as a driver of human capital development, this chapter will focus on the essential issues of efficiency and equity in educational decision-making. By analysing the significant expansion in HE access, the chapter will underscore the high social and individual expectations regarding HE's role in promoting economic development and growth. Additionally, it will address the potential problems arising from this expansion, including aspects such as retention and dropout and increasing inequalities among graduates in employability and earnings. The chapter will critically evaluate the effects of deregulation and competition within higher education systems, weighing the arguments for and against these trends. Furthermore, it will investigate how higher education systems can perpetuate or exacerbate inequalities through institutional stratification and differing job market outcomes based on the type of degree, institution, and field of study.