Trading off inclusion, value, and scale within smallholder targeted value chains (with Daniel Gregg and Derek Baker).

In this paper we seek to develop and describe a more complete articulation of how the domains of inclusion, value, and scaling-out should be considered for smallholder value chain programs as rural development tools, and to what extent trade-offs in these three factors emerge for smallholder-targeted value chain programs. We present a scoping literature review of outcome identification and measurement in smallholder-targeted value chains case studies from a sample of 344 case studies we show strong evidence for the trade-offs. 

Click here for the working paper.

Measurement of extensive and intensive smallholder inclusion in high value markets (with Daniel Gregg). 

In this paper draw on methods from the inequality in opportunity literature to measure inclusion/exclusion outcomes of coffee growing smallholders within high value coffee markets in Eastern Uganda. 

Click here for the working paper.

Furtive consumption and household norm disagreements: A case study of rural Ugandan households. (with Daniel Gregg, Cansin Arslan, and Randy Stringer).

This study investigates private (furtive) financial activities from a sample of 418 rural households in Eastern Uganda, examining how disagreements between spouses over financial norms and differences in bargaining power affect intentions to spend money for personal use instead of for the household. 

Click here for the working paper.

Modelling welfare, distributional, and landscape effects and trade-offs of coffee contract farming for Bandung, Indonesia. (with Oscar Cacho and Jonathan Moss).

In this paper, we introduce the agent-based simulation model IndoMod Value Chains to test the welfare and landscape effects of potential coffee agroforestry contracting interventions for the peri-urban Uplands of Bandung, Indonesia.

Click here for the working paper.

More details on the IndoMod Value Chains model can be found here.

Consumption behaviours and poverty traps: A case study of detailed diary data from rural poor smallholder households in Uganda (with Daniel Gregg and David Just).

In this study we consider the income, saving, and consuption dynamics of poor households in rural Uganda, based on a unique dataset of 24 weekly observations from 421 rural households in eastern Uganda. Results show that social aspirational factors, primarily associated with Keeping Up with the Joneses, are shown to generate seemingly large poverty traps whilst heuristic-based behaviours, such as Rule of Thumb consumption are less associated with the generation of poverty traps.  

Hill, D., McWhinnie, S. F., Kumar, S., & Gregg, D. (2023). Technology Heterogeneity and Poverty Traps: A Latent Class Approach to Technology Gap Drivers of Chronic Poverty. The Journal of Development Studies, 59(2), 224–241. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2022.2128775  

Replication materials here and here. 

The role of value chain payments for self control and intrahousehold claims - evidence from a discrete choice experiment of coffee farmers in Uganda

A core objective of the Inclusive Value Chains research program was to understand how the value chain payments methods can support welfare outcomes for coffee growing households in Kapchorwa, Uganda. Discrete choice experiments were conducted with household heads and spouses from 210 households (privately) to understand the preferences and willingness to pay/accept for certain value chain payment methods such as digital payments, delayed payment, and proof of payment.  This research seeks to understand how these preferences relate to concerns of self control and intrahousehold claims (both of which identified as issues as working papers above), and whether these preferences are currently being met by existing value chains. 

Gendered value chain preferences and hidden marketing behaviour amongst coffee growing households in Uganda

Another focus of the Inclusive Value Chains research program was to understand the intrahousehold behaviour of interacting with coffee value chains. In this paper we conducted ranking exercises with over 200 spouses in coffee growing villages near Kapchrowa, Uganda to determine individual preferences for certain value chain attributes, including for example input and credit support, decision making, prices, and ease of marketing. By mapping individually defined stated preference information from individual and household level revealed preferences, we are able to draw conclusions about how households internalise heterogeneous preferences for coffee marketing decision making. Importantly, we expect households with disagreements in buyer preferences will follow three types of behaviour - sell coffee according to the husband's preferences (a cooperative, but one-sided compromise), a weighted average of each other's preferences (a cooperative and balanced compromise), or coffee will be sold by women non-cooperatively (i.e. hidden). We hypothesise that households where women sell coffee non-cooperatively are able to achieve higher welfare outcomes relative to households with one-sided compromises, of which we measure through compensating variation. 

Is natural capital an important factor of production in agriculture: Tests and descriptive insights using omitted-variable DEA models (with Elizabeth Heagney and Daniel Gregg).

This paper presents the role of natural capital as being integral to agricultural activities. We use a unique farm level surveys of which collected both detailed natural capital data, along with over 5 years of financial and production data. This paper introduces extended DEA models for non-discretionary inputs to reframe the relationship between agriculture and the environment as one that can be positive, neutral or negative across the range of possible levels of natural capital contained within a farming business. 

This research is one of many contributions under the Farming for the Future program - https://farmingforthefuture.org.au/ 

Heterogeneity in NSW livestock business rainfall resilience (with Jeff Connor, Oscar Cacho, and Daniel Gregg)

This project seeks to understand the heterogeneity in profit resilience to rainfall shocks amongst NSW livestock businesses. The project has access of over 20 years of detailed farm business tax data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics to understand how short- and longer-term rainfall changes impact input, stocking rates, and profits. 

Deconinck, K., Henderson, B., Gregg, D. and Hill, D., 2023. Towards resilient food systems: Implications of supply chain disruptions and policy responses (No. 205). OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/f7998e46-en 

Gregg, D. and Hill, D., 2023. Mirages in the north: - Northern development myths and Northern Real Options. A report prepared for PEW Charitable Trusts, https://territoryrivers.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/MirageOfNorth_Pew_2023_ONLINE.pdf 

Connor, J., Gregg, D., Hill, D., Sangha, K., 2022.  Review of the Singleton Horticulture Project’s water entitlement provision costs, benefits and employment impacts. A report prepared for Central Land Council, https://www.clc.org.au/wp-content/uploads/Singleton-Irrigation-Project-Economic-Analysis-Report-FINAL.pdf