Understanding Probability 'Always' Helps!

There are 15 Treasure 'gem' cards and 15 Hazard cards (3 of each hazard) in the game. Also, 1-5 'Gold treasures' are added to the deck before each 'exploration'. [Note! In the online BGA version there are 14 Treasure 'gem' cards, 1 gem (1), 2 (1), 3 (1), 4(1), 5(2), 7(2), 9(1),11(2),13(1),14(1) and 15 gems(1 card) = A total of 107 gems in the BGA deck vs 114 in the original deck.]

The 'Start' danger usually gets lower and lower

Each time two hazard cards of the same type are turned... one of them is removed from the deck. Thus the balance between the Treasure cards and Hazard cards can change.

The 'start' risk of turning hazards for the 1st exploration is 48,39% (15 of 31 cards). [In the BGA online version: 50% (15 of 30 cards)]

If none of the gold treasures are recovered or lost, and 4 hazard cards are removed, the 'start' risk is 35,49% (11 of 31 cards) [BGA start risk: 36,67] . Thus the risk of turning a hazard card before the start of the five explorations are between 35,49% and 48,39% (the lowest one is however very unlikely). However you need two similar hazards to end an exploration. Thus the start risk for an exploration to stop fast is far lower than these numbers.

The Danger increases during an Exploration

During an exploration the risk of turning two similar hazard card increases with each new card revealed.

Example: 1 Gold treasure in the deck, 1 Hazard card removed in the previous exploration. Then 3 different hazards (2+2+1 similar remain in the deck), and 5 Treasure cards with gems, are turned. With 11 treasure cards, and 11 hazards left unturned, the chance of turning a new hazard card is 50% [BGA: 10 treasure cards, and 11 hazard, 52,4%]. But of course the risk of turning a 'double' hazard is far lower than this. In this example only five 'matching' hazard cards can stop the exploration = the risk is 22,72%! [BGA online risk would be: 23,8%]

Keep track of Removed Hazards

It will for sure help to remember which hazard cards have been removed, and the amount of remaining Gold treasures. The risk of getting a 'killer-match' decreases if one or more of the turned Hazard cards have only one, or no matches, left in the deck.

Knowing When to Stop...

I usually stop and withdraw pretty early during the 1st exploration (after 1-2 Hazard cards have been turned). 3 gems vs 0 gems is 'always' worth it, and can even win you the game. Of course, the approximate number of gems the other explorers have "secured" guides how far I will 'push it' in the upcomming tunnels. During ranked matches at BGA the consequences of getting a bad placing plays a part too. When the last tunnel is reached and you are in the lead by approximately 15 gems... you can continue along with the opponents and 'control' the lead. The problem of course occurs if one or more opponents pull out with more than 15 gems, and one or more opponent keeps going! Also remember the gold treasure scoring system: The first three gold treasures collected by the players are each worth 5 points - the fourth and fifth 10 points.

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